Ethiopia stands once again at the edge of catastrophic internal conflict, as Tigrayan fighters push into neighboring regions and seven armed groups unite under a single coalition to unseat Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed — reopening wounds from a 2020-22 civil war that claimed some 600,000 lives. The Pretoria peace agreement, which had held an uneasy quiet for nearly two years, now strains under the weight of mutual accusations and advancing troops. In the Horn of Africa, where Sudan already burns and Red Sea tensions simmer, the fragility of one nation's peace is never only that nation's burden.
Ethiopia faces civil war fears as Tigrayan rebels form opposition alliance
The previous 2020-22 civil war killed approximately 600,000 people; current fighting has triggered panic-buying, food shortages, and fears of siege conditions in Tigray.
Daily survival has become a constant calculation.
Mark
So the TPLF and six other armed groups formed this alliance specifically to overthrow Abiy Ahmed. What changed? Why now?
Mimi
The ceasefire in 2022 was always fragile. Clashes started again late last year, but this is the first time the TPLF has launched a coordinated offensive into neighboring regions and formalized an alliance with other groups. It signals they're moving from sporadic fighting to a strategic push for power.
Luke
But we should note—the government claims it repelled these attacks and killed over 500 fighters. We're hearing the TPLF's account that they've seized towns and airports, but we don't have independent verification of who controls what right now.
Mark
The fear seems to be that Eritrea is backing the TPLF. Why would they do that?
Mimi
Eritrea is landlocked and fears Ethiopia will invade to reach the Red Sea. Supporting the TPLF destabilizes Abiy's government and protects Eritrea's interests. The TPLF's vice-president said they haven't requested Eritrean intervention "yet"—which is telling.
Luke
Except Eritrea denies involvement, and we don't have hard evidence of direct military support. We know analysts say Eritrea has support from the TPLF, but that's analysis, not confirmed fact. The government claims financial backing, but that's an accusation, not proof.
Mark
What about the people living there? What's happening on the ground?
Mimi
Panic. In Adigrat, shops are emptying. People are buying up food and cash because they remember what happened before—the siege, the famine conditions, the cut-off from the outside world. It's not just fear of fighting; it's fear of being trapped.
Luke
And that's real and documented. But we should be clear: that's what residents are reporting. We don't yet know if siege conditions will actually return or if the fighting will spread as widely as the 2020-22 war.
Mark
How does this compare to the previous civil war?
Mimi
The alliances have completely flipped. Eritrea and Fano fought with the government against the TPLF back then. Now they're on opposite sides. It's a different conflict with different players.
Luke
Which makes it harder to predict. We don't have a clear map of who controls what or how deep the fractures run within the government's own coalition.
O Pulso
- TPLF forces have seized three airports, suspended Ethiopian Airlines flights, and pushed fighters into Afar and Amhara — with artillery fire reported near the town of Yallo and clashes erupting close to a key road leading to Addis Ababa.
- Seven armed groups, including the TPLF, have formally declared the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, making their goal explicit: the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power.
- In Tigray's cities, residents are panic-buying food and medicine, fearing a return to the siege conditions of the last war, when hundreds of thousands fell into famine and communications were severed for months.
- The Ethiopian army claims to have repelled the offensive and inflicted heavy casualties, while the government accuses Eritrea of bankrolling the new alliance — an allegation Eritrea denies, even as analysts warn its involvement could escalate the conflict regionally.
- The African Union, European Union, and United Nations have all called for de-escalation and a return to the Pretoria framework, but with alliances reshuffled and former enemies now fighting together, the diplomatic path forward is deeply uncertain.
Ethiopia stands once again at the edge of catastrophic internal conflict, as Tigrayan fighters push into neighboring regions and seven armed groups unite under a single coalition to unseat Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed — reopening wounds from a 2020-22 civil war that claimed some 600,000 lives. The Pretoria peace agreement, which had held an uneasy quiet for nearly two years, now strains under the weight of mutual accusations and advancing troops. In the Horn of Africa, where Sudan already burns and Red Sea tensions simmer, the fragility of one nation's peace is never only that nation's burden.
Ethiopia is bracing for the return of large-scale war. Over the past week, Tigrayan fighters have pushed into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, and seven armed groups — including the Tigray People's Liberation Front — announced a new coalition explicitly formed to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. The fear carries the weight of recent memory: between 2020 and 2022, a war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF killed roughly 600,000 people, ending only with a ceasefire signed in Pretoria. Now both sides accuse the other of shattering that fragile peace.
The immediate escalation unfolded rapidly. On Sunday, the seven groups formally declared the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. By Wednesday, TPLF fighters had seized three airports from federal police, grounding Ethiopian Airlines flights to the region, and launched attacks into Afar and Amhara. Heavy artillery was reported near the Afar town of Yallo, and fighting broke out near Weldiya in Amhara — one of the few major routes to Addis Ababa. The TPLF's vice-president described the situation to AFP as "full-blown war."
The human cost is already taking shape. In Adigrat, near the Eritrean border, residents described emptying shelves, scarce medicine, and the daily arithmetic of survival. Across Tigray, people are stockpiling food and cash, haunted by memories of the previous war's siege conditions, when famine spread and the outside world was shut out. Flights to the historic town of Lalibela were suspended Thursday as fighting drew closer.
The Ethiopian army issued its first public statement Thursday, claiming it had repelled the offensive and neutralized over 500 fighters. The government alleged that Eritrea had been financing the new alliance — a charge Eritrea denied. Analysts note that Eritrea has its own reasons to fear Abiy's Ethiopia, particularly concerns about a potential push toward Red Sea access. When asked whether the TPLF would seek Eritrean military intervention, the vice-president's answer was pointed: "Not yet."
The current conflict marks a striking realignment. In the last war, Eritrea and the Fano insurgent group — now part of the seven-group alliance — fought alongside the government against Tigray. Those partnerships have since fractured. At the United Nations, Ethiopia's president condemned external interference and claimed governmental restraint. The African Union and European Union both called for de-escalation and a return to the Pretoria framework. But with alliances reshuffled, memories of mass death still fresh, and the broader Horn of Africa already destabilized by war in Sudan and Red Sea tensions, the coming weeks will determine whether Ethiopia's fragile peace can be recovered — or whether it has already been lost.
Ethiopia is bracing for the return of large-scale conflict. Over the past week, fighters from Tigray have pushed into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, and seven armed groups—including the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF—announced the formation of a new coalition explicitly designed to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. The fear is not abstract. Between 2020 and 2022, a war between the Ethiopian army and the TPLF killed roughly 600,000 people. That war ended with a ceasefire agreement signed in Pretoria in 2022. Now both the government and the rebel forces are accusing each other of breaking that fragile peace.
The immediate trigger came on Sunday, when the seven armed groups formally announced the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. Three days later, on Wednesday, TPLF forces took control of three airports from federal police, forcing Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flights to the region. The same day, Tigrayan fighters attacked into Afar and Amhara. A humanitarian worker in Afar reported heavy artillery fire on Thursday as the TPLF attempted to seize the town of Yallo, just across the border from Tigray. Fighting also erupted near Weldiya in Amhara—one of the few major routes to the capital, Addis Ababa. The TPLF's vice-president, Amanuel Assefa, told the press agency AFP that the situation had escalated to "full-blown war." He confirmed that Tigrayan forces were coordinating with local armed groups in both neighboring regions.
The human toll is already visible. In the city of Adigrat, near Eritrea, residents described scenes of panic-buying and emptying shelves. One person told Reuters that food was becoming scarce, medicines were nearly impossible to find and prohibitively expensive, and that "daily survival has become a constant calculation." Across Tigray, people are stockpiling food and cash, fearing they could face the same siege conditions that devastated the region during the previous war—when communications were cut off, access to food and medicine was severely restricted, and hundreds of thousands of people descended into famine-like conditions. Flights to Lalibela, a historic town in the region, were suspended on Thursday due to nearby fighting.
The Ethiopian army responded on Thursday with its first public statement about the fighting, claiming it had repelled the attacks and killed, wounded, or captured more than 500 enemy fighters. The government's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, alleged that members of the new alliance had been coordinating for some time with financial backing from Eritrea, Ethiopia's neighbor and longtime adversary. Eritrea has repeatedly denied such accusations. Analysts note that Eritrea has reason to support the TPLF: the country fears that landlocked Ethiopia intends to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea. When asked by AFP whether the TPLF would request Eritrean military intervention, vice-president Assefa replied: "Not yet."
The current fighting represents a significant shift from the previous war. In 2020-22, Eritrea and Fano—an insurgent group now part of the new seven-group alliance—both fought alongside the government against the Tigrayans. Now the alliances have fractured and realigned. The TPLF itself ruled Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, when it was sidelined by Abiy's rise to power. That political rupture eventually triggered the devastating civil war.
At the United Nations on Wednesday, Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde condemned "the forces of destruction and mayhem" and accused external actors of interfering in Ethiopia's internal affairs. He claimed the government had shown "immense restraint" and made progress with neighboring countries. The African Union chair, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, called for "utmost restraint" from both sides and urged them to resume direct negotiations. The European Union issued a statement calling for "immediate de-escalation" and a renewed commitment to the Pretoria agreement.
The stakes extend far beyond Ethiopia's borders. The Horn of Africa is already destabilized by war in neighboring Sudan and rising tensions along the Red Sea. A broader conflict involving multiple armed groups across the region could draw in actors from across East Africa and further strain an already fragile geopolitical landscape. The 2022 ceasefire, which had held an uneasy peace for nearly two years, now appears to be unraveling. What happens in the coming weeks will determine whether Ethiopia descends again into the kind of large-scale conflict that killed hundreds of thousands just four years ago.
Citações Notáveis
We are in the situation of full-blown war now.— Amanuel Assefa, TPLF vice-president, to AFP
Food shortages are worsening as market shelves sit empty. Essential medicines remain scarce and astronomically expensive.— Resident of Adigrat, to Reuters
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Leia o original em The Guardian ↗