Ethiopia and Eritrea sever ties as northern conflict intensifies

Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic relations, marking a dramatic escalation in a rivalry that threatens to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. On Thursday, the Ethiopian government announced it was closing its embassy in Asmara and expelling ten Eritrean diplomats, giving them 48 hours to leave the country. The accusation was direct: these diplomats posed a threat to Ethiopian national security. Eritrea, which had been silent for only hours, responded by cutting all diplomatic ties in return, calling Ethiopia's move "astounding" and warning of "negative corollaries" that would follow.

The diplomatic rupture arrived on the heels of explosions that shook Addis Ababa overnight, with blasts reported near Ethiopia's military headquarters and intelligence service compound. The sounds were loud enough to trigger car alarms across the capital. A source connected to an opposition alliance told Reuters that drone strikes had been carried out against the city, though Ethiopian authorities have released no official confirmation of what caused the explosions, what damage resulted, or whether anyone was killed. The government had imposed a ban on all drone flights over the capital and surrounding areas just hours before the blasts, citing the need to protect senior officials and critical infrastructure.

The immediate cause of the diplomatic break is Eritrea's alleged support for armed groups fighting the Ethiopian government. Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of backing an alliance formed last month by the Tigray People's Liberation Front and six other armed movements, including the Fano militia from the Amhara region. Their stated goal is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from power. A pro-government militia commander told the BBC that Eritrean soldiers have been fighting on the front lines in Tigray, though the BBC has not independently verified this claim. Eritrea's Information Minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, rejected the accusations in a rare interview before relations were severed, arguing that Ethiopia's governing party was blaming neighboring countries to distract from internal conflicts and problems.

The two nations were allies just years ago. During the 2020-2022 Tigray war, Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF. That conflict killed an estimated 600,000 people over two years. But the relationship has deteriorated sharply since the peace agreement ended that war in 2022. The core dispute centers on Ethiopia's landlocked status and its hunger for access to the Red Sea. When Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Ethiopia lost its coastline. Prime Minister Abiy has repeatedly argued that sea access is essential to Ethiopia's economic and security future. Eritrea, in turn, accuses his government of harboring territorial ambitions over its ports and pursuing an increasingly hostile policy toward the Red Sea.

The fighting now unfolding across northern Ethiopia is the most serious since that 2022 peace agreement. Federal forces and their allies are making gains in southern Tigray and advancing toward Mekelle, the regional capital. In the town of Alamata, a doctor reported that at least 52 civilians had been killed during just three days of intense fighting. In the Afar region, which sits along Ethiopia's crucial transport corridor to Djibouti and the sea, tens of thousands of people have fled their homes. Both the Ethiopian government and the TPLF blame the other for starting the latest round of hostilities. Tigrayan authorities say their forces were responding to a federal offensive and drone strikes, while Addis Ababa says Tigrayan fighters launched attacks after seizing control of federally administered airports in Tigray.

The humanitarian toll is mounting, and the ability to document it is severely limited. Journalists have restricted access to conflict zones, and communications across much of Tigray have been cut off, making independent verification of events nearly impossible. The United Nations has warned that the deteriorating security situation is crippling humanitarian operations in the north. Drone activity and airstrikes are endangering civilians, destroying vital infrastructure, and threatening aid operations. Road closures and insecurity are preventing humanitarian workers from reaching people in need. The African Union has called on Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt to exercise restraint and resolve their differences through diplomatic channels, warning that further escalation could destabilize the entire region. What began as a diplomatic rupture now carries the weight of a conflict that could reshape the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa.