England's World Cup puzzle: opener depth, spinner succession, seam bowling squeeze

England are no longer the format's biggest underachievers
After winning all three ODI series in 2024, England has shifted from a team in freefall to one with genuine World Cup ambitions.
Mark

So England has actually turned this around? They were terrible just a year ago.

Mimi

They were. Lost six of seven series between late 2023 and early 2024. But they've won all three this year. McCullum seems to have changed how he approaches white-ball cricket—he's even talking about arranging warm-up matches now.

Luke

That's a shift, but let's be careful. Three series wins is good, but the underlying stat is still alarming: they've won only one of their last nine ODIs where neither Brook nor Root scored fifty. That's a real fragility.

Mark

What about the openers? Duckett looked brilliant last year.

Mimi

He did, but he's averaged 27.15 since then. Banton just scored a century, and Bethell hit 91. Both look suited to South Africa's bouncy pitches. Duckett averages 23.4 on high-bouncing surfaces since 2023.

Luke

But Duckett has 111 List A matches. That experience matters. The question is whether Banton and Bethell are ready to carry that load, not just whether they can score runs in one series.

Mark

What about the spinners?

Mimi

That's the real problem. Rehan Ahmed was supposed to be Rashid's backup, but he was dropped for the final match. Liam Dawson came in and took 3-26 instead.

Luke

Ahmed bowled better than his figures suggested in game one, and took 2-48 in game two. Dawson benefited from the pitch. We don't know yet if Ahmed is genuinely not ready or if he just had a bad series.

Mimi

Fair point. But he also had a sloppy run-out and a five-ball duck. Rashid will be 39 at the World Cup. That's a lot of pressure on one player.

Mark

And the fast bowlers?

Mimi

Five quality seamers, three spots. Archer, Atkinson, Overton, Tongue, Baker. When Sam Curran comes back, it gets tighter.

Luke

Baker is interesting—he's averaging 85mph with over one degree of swing in the powerplay. But he's played two ODIs. We're extrapolating from a very small sample.

Mark

So what's the real test?

Mimi

South Africa in winter. That's where they'll see if this improvement holds on the kind of pitches they'll face at the World Cup.

Luke

And whether the depth they're building—Cox, Banton, the younger seamers—can actually perform under pressure, not just in a good summer at home.

  • England have reversed a run of six series defeats in seven with three consecutive wins, but the margin between recovery and genuine World Cup readiness remains uncomfortably narrow.
  • Ben Duckett's inconsistency — a century at Lord's alongside nine scores below 20 in his other innings — forces a difficult conversation about loyalty versus form ahead of a tournament played largely on bouncy South African pitches where he averages just 23.4.
  • Rehan Ahmed's failure to cement himself as Rashid's successor, dropped for the final ODI in favour of a 36-year-old Liam Dawson, leaves England dangerously reliant on a spinner who will be 39 at the World Cup.
  • Jordan Cox's explosive 76 from 52 balls and Tom Banton's maiden international century signal that England's batting depth is finally beginning to take shape beyond the twin pillars of Brook and Root.
  • The return of Sam Curran will force McCullum to choose three seamers from five credible options, with debutant Sonny Baker — one of only five bowlers globally combining 85mph pace with meaningful swing — emerging as the most tantalising unknown.
  • A winter tour to South Africa offers the precise conditions the World Cup will demand, making it less a development exercise and more a final examination before selection decisions harden.

After a prolonged period of underperformance that saw them exit the Champions Trophy without a win, England's one-day cricket side has quietly rebuilt itself into something resembling a World Cup contender, winning all three ODI series in 2024 under Brendon McCullum's renewed commitment to white-ball preparation. Yet victory has a way of revealing new questions as much as it answers old ones — who opens the batting, who backs up an ageing Adil Rashid, and which three seamers from a group of five earn their place on the plane to South Africa. These are not crises but calibrations, the kind of honest reckoning that separates teams who merely improve from those who arrive ready.

England's one-day side has spent much of 2024 quietly repairing a reputation damaged by a dismal run through the previous year — six series defeats in seven, a Champions Trophy exit without a win. Three consecutive ODI series victories later, even the sceptics are paying attention. The shift is perhaps best captured in a small detail: Brendon McCullum is now arranging warm-up 50-over matches for the winter tour, something England had not done outside of World Cups for six years. It is a quiet signal that the coach is taking white-ball preparation more seriously than before.

The most pressing question is the opening partnership. Ben Duckett remains a paradox — capable of a 141 at Lord's, yet averaging just 27.15 across formats since a brilliant innings against India last summer, with nine scores below 20 scattered across his other outings. On the high-bouncing surfaces that will define next year's World Cup in South Africa, his average drops further to 23.4. Tom Banton's first international century and Jacob Bethell's composed 91 against India suggest England have credible alternatives, and at 22, Bethell is already spoken of as a senior presence in the dressing room.

The spinner situation carries a sharper urgency. Rehan Ahmed was expected to use this series to establish himself as Adil Rashid's understudy, but was dropped for the final match after Liam Dawson — 14 years his senior — came in and took 3-26 with a discipline Ahmed has not yet matched at international level. Ahmed is gifted, but his development has stalled, and with Rashid set to be 39 at the World Cup, England's second spinner remains an open and uncomfortable question.

Elsewhere, the picture is more encouraging. Jordan Cox, deputising for the injured Jos Buttler, struck 76 from 52 balls in the series decider — a reminder that England's wicketkeeping future may already be in the squad. The seam attack, meanwhile, faces a selection puzzle of abundance: when Sam Curran returns from injury, five quality seamers will compete for three spots. Among them is Sonny Baker, who in just two ODIs has shown the rare combination of pace above 85mph and genuine swing — a profile shared globally by only a handful of bowlers. McCullum has roughly 20 ODIs left to find his answers. England are no longer their own worst enemy in white-ball cricket, but South Africa this winter will reveal whether the improvement is deep enough to matter.

England's one-day cricket team has begun to look like a side that might actually compete at next year's World Cup. After a disastrous run through 2023 and early 2024—losing six of seven series and crashing out of the Champions Trophy without a win—they have now won all three ODI series this year. The turnaround is real enough that even skeptics are starting to believe. Yet as coach Brendon McCullum sat down after England's commanding victory over Sri Lanka at The Oval in late September, the conversation revealed something more telling than the scoreline: he was talking about arranging warm-up 50-over matches for the winter tour, something England had not done outside of World Cups for six years. For a coach whose side had managed only one in-house warm-up before the previous winter's Ashes, this represented a quiet but significant shift in how seriously he was taking white-ball preparation.

The most immediate puzzle is who opens the batting. Ben Duckett has been a puzzle himself this summer—the only Englishman to score a Test century, the man who hit 141 in an ODI at Lord's, yet also the batter who managed nine scores below 20 in his other 15 innings. His average since a brilliant 149 against India last summer has slipped to 27.15 across all formats. England has been reluctant to drop a senior player with 111 List A matches to his name, especially in a squad still short on white-ball experience. But Tom Banton's first international century against Sri Lanka and Jacob Bethell's 91 against India suggest there is a credible alternative. Bethell, only 22 but already spoken of as a senior figure in the group, and Banton, whose technique at the top of the bounce looks tailor-made for South Africa's bouncy pitches, have shown that England need not be locked into Duckett. The numbers underline the point: Duckett averages just 23.4 on high-bouncing surfaces since the start of 2023, a concern when most of next year's World Cup will be played in South Africa.

The spinner question is more urgent. Rehan Ahmed was supposed to have his moment this series as Adil Rashid's understudy, but instead he was dropped for the final match at The Oval. The 22-year-old bowled better than his figures of 1-46 in the first ODI suggested, and took 2-48 in the second, yet Liam Dawson—14 years older—came in and took 3-26. Dawson benefited from the pitch's turn and bounce, true, but he also landed 39 percent of his deliveries on a spinner's good length, compared to Ahmed's 22 percent in the previous two games. Ahmed is talented but has not progressed as an international cricketer, and a sloppy run-out in Durham and a five-ball duck at Headingley did not help his cause. This leaves Rashid, who will be 39 at the World Cup, carrying an enormous burden. England's hopes of a second spinner rest on Ahmed finding his feet, or on Dawson proving he can be more than a one-match solution.

What has been genuinely encouraging is the emergence of depth elsewhere. Jordan Cox, given his chance after Jos Buttler's hamstring injury in the second ODI, scored 76 from 52 balls in the series decider—a performance that looked like a deliberate imitation of England's greatest white-ball player. Buttler's injury is a reminder that no one plays forever, especially at 36, but Cox's breakout summer across formats suggests England have a capable understudy. Tom Banton's century and the contributions from other names mean that England are no longer entirely dependent on Harry Brook and Joe Root scoring runs. The alarming statistic that England have won only one of their past nine ODIs in which neither Brook nor Root made fifty still stands, but Sunday's win showed that the team is beginning to build the kind of depth that World Cup squads need.

The seam bowling presents a different kind of puzzle. Sam Curran is returning from a groin injury, and when he does, England will have five quality seamers competing for three spots: Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Jamie Overton, Josh Tongue, and Sonny Baker. Archer remains England's trump card despite a quiet end to a long summer. Atkinson has been the most accurate new-ball bowler, with 49 percent of his powerplay deliveries hitting a good length. Overton appears to have been given the middle-over enforcer role. But the most intriguing addition is Baker, who was brought in to provide new-ball X-Factor. In only two ODIs, he has taken a wicket with his second delivery, and he is one of only five bowlers in the world to average more than 85mph and over one degree of swing in the powerplay—the others being India's Mohammed Siraj and Shami, West Indies' Alzarri Joseph, and Australia's Mitchell Starc. With 20 or so ODIs before the World Cup, McCullum will need to solve this puzzle carefully. England may not yet be the world's best 50-over side, but they are no longer its biggest underachievers. The winter tour to South Africa will test whether this improvement is real.

We are also trying to include a number of warm-up games as well
— Brendon McCullum, England coach, on winter planning
I think they might be in with a shout, with a bit of luck on their side
— Phil Tufnell, former England spinner, on World Cup prospects
Quieres la nota completa? Lee el original en BBC News ↗
Contáctanos FAQ