Across Canada in the summer of 2022, the cost of keeping a home warm, a car moving, and the lights on reached record heights — not as a passing disruption, but as a signal of something more enduring. At the intersection of global insecurity, deliberate policy, and constrained investment, energy prices have become the visible price tag of an invisible reckoning: the cost of leaving one energy era without yet arriving in another. The question this moment poses is not merely economic, but moral — who will be asked to pay, and who will be protected from paying too much.
Energy costs surging as transition, security concerns push prices higher
Rising energy costs disproportionately impact vulnerable Canadians who may struggle to afford heating, power, and transportation.
Governments have never articulated that the transition will be expensive
Mark
So we're looking at record gas prices and climbing heating bills. Is this just a temporary spike from the war in Ukraine, or something deeper?
Mimi
It's both, but the deeper part is what matters. Yes, Ukraine tightened supplies and spooked markets. But the real issue is that oil and gas companies aren't investing in new production—they're returning money to shareholders instead. And governments are pushing the energy transition faster at the same time.
Luke
Wait—so companies aren't investing because of ESG pressure and policy uncertainty, not just because of the war?
Mimi
Right. The war made it worse, but the underinvestment was already happening. Companies are nervous about long-term bets on fossil fuels when governments are signaling they want to move away from them.
Mark
And the energy transition itself—that's supposed to bring prices down eventually, right? More renewables, cheaper electricity?
Mimi
Eventually, maybe. But the transition is expensive to build. And here's the thing: governments are pushing it faster without really telling people what it costs. One analyst said governments have never articulated to the public that the transition will be expensive.
Luke
So what's the actual cost impact we're talking about? Is it just the transition, or is it the transition plus the supply crunch?
Mimi
Both. In April, Canadians paid 26 percent more for energy than a year earlier. In Alberta, natural gas was up 45 percent, electricity up 13 percent. Some of that's the supply crunch. Some of it is structural—the cost of building new renewable capacity.
Mark
And this continues through the summer?
Mimi
At least through September, according to refining experts. Gasoline could hit $2.30 a litre in Alberta if demand doesn't fall.
Luke
But we don't actually know how long this lasts, do we? The experts said they don't know how high prices will go or how fast they'll come down.
Mimi
No. There's real uncertainty. That's part of what makes it hard for people to plan.
Mark
Who gets hurt most by this?
Mimi
The vulnerable. That's what ATCO's president said explicitly—the risk is that the poorest Canadians end up footing the bill for the transition.
Luke
But is there actually a policy response to that, or is it just a warning?
Mimi
The reporting doesn't show one. It's a warning.
O Pulso
- Canadian gasoline hit a national record of $2.08 per litre in June 2022, while Alberta natural gas surged 45% year-over-year and electricity climbed 13%, making energy the single loudest concern heard by provincial ministers.
- Three structural forces — Russia's invasion of Ukraine tightening global supply, investor pressure pushing producers to return cash rather than drill, and accelerating net-zero policy commitments — are colliding to keep prices elevated well beyond a seasonal spike.
- Industry analysts warn that the usual market remedy of new supply coming online has simply not materialized, and demand has not fallen enough to relieve pressure, with prices expected to remain high through at least September.
- Experts at the Global Energy Show delivered a candid warning governments have largely avoided: the energy transition will cost citizens more, and that truth has never been honestly communicated to the public.
- Vulnerable Canadians — those least able to absorb rising heating, power, and transportation costs — stand to bear the heaviest burden if policy acceleration continues without targeted protection or transparent public accounting of transition costs.
Across Canada in the summer of 2022, the cost of keeping a home warm, a car moving, and the lights on reached record heights — not as a passing disruption, but as a signal of something more enduring. At the intersection of global insecurity, deliberate policy, and constrained investment, energy prices have become the visible price tag of an invisible reckoning: the cost of leaving one energy era without yet arriving in another. The question this moment poses is not merely economic, but moral — who will be asked to pay, and who will be protected from paying too much.
Canadians are watching their energy bills climb in real time. Gasoline set a national record this week at $2.08 per litre, while home heating and electricity costs have risen sharply — natural gas in Alberta up 45 percent year-over-year, electricity up 13 percent. Alberta's energy minister says it is the single biggest issue she hears about daily.
But analysts and industry leaders gathered at the Global Energy Show offered a sobering message: the forces driving prices higher are structural, not temporary. Global energy security concerns have tightened supply. Petroleum producers, under investor and environmental pressure, are returning cash to shareholders rather than investing in new capacity. And governments are accelerating decarbonization — Canada has committed to a net-zero electricity grid by 2035 — without clearly telling citizens what that will cost.
Melanie Bayley of ATCO Electric warned that as Canada decarbonizes, energy costs will rise, and the most vulnerable Canadians risk bearing the heaviest burden. Analyst Jeremy McCrea noted the usual economic cure — more supply — hasn't arrived, and demand hasn't fallen enough to ease pressure. Refining expert Susan Bell predicted Alberta gasoline could reach $2.30 per litre this summer, with elevated prices persisting through at least September.
The deeper concern, according to multiple analysts, is a failure of honest communication. Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects stated plainly that the energy transition will be expensive — and that governments have never said so clearly to the public. Dan Balaban of Greengate Power framed it as a systemic shift: traditional energy costs are rising, and a rapid move to net-zero cannot happen without price impacts.
What is emerging is a three-way collision between global energy insecurity, net-zero policy ambition, and a shortage of new investment in supply. The affordability squeeze that results will persist. The question now is whether governments will honestly account for the cost of transition — or allow it to fall quietly on those least able to carry it.
Canadians are watching their energy bills climb in real time. Gasoline hit a national record this week, averaging $2.08 per litre for regular unleaded. Home heating bills are rising. Power costs are up. In Alberta alone, natural gas expenses jumped 45 percent year-over-year in April, while electricity climbed 13 percent. The pinch is real enough that Alberta's energy minister now calls it the single biggest issue she hears about daily.
But industry leaders and energy analysts gathered at the Global Energy Show this week offered a warning that amounts to: this is just the beginning. The forces pushing prices higher are structural, not temporary. Global energy security concerns have tightened supplies. Petroleum producers, facing pressure from investors and environmental scrutiny, are returning cash to shareholders rather than investing in new production capacity. Meanwhile, governments are accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels—Canada has committed to a net-zero electricity grid by 2035—and those policies carry a cost that few have honestly named to the public.
Melanie Bayley, president of ATCO Electric, put it plainly: as Canada decarbonizes, energy costs will rise. The risk, she warned, is that the most vulnerable Canadians end up bearing the heaviest burden. The energy crisis in Europe, which began last fall with natural gas prices soaring, has already shown what happens when supplies tighten, demand stays strong, and investment in new capacity remains low. Jeremy McCrea, an analyst with Raymond James, noted the usual economic cure for high prices—more supply coming to market—hasn't materialized. Demand hasn't fallen enough to ease pressure, and new production isn't coming online fast enough to meet it.
The numbers tell the story. In April, Canadians paid 26 percent more for energy than they had a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada. In Alberta, gasoline costs were up 25.5 percent despite the province cutting its fuel tax. Natural gas spiked 45 percent. Electricity rose 13 percent. Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, said plainly that these increases are making a dent on consumer budgets.
Refining expert Susan Bell from S&P Global Commodity Insights expects prices to stay elevated through at least September. She predicted Alberta gasoline could climb to $2.30 per litre this summer if consumer demand doesn't fall. The uncertainty itself is part of the problem—nobody knows how high prices will go, or how quickly they'll come down once demand finally drops.
The deeper issue, according to energy analysts, is that governments are pushing the energy transition faster while simultaneously failing to prepare citizens for what it will cost. Amrita Sen, research director at London-based Energy Aspects, said the single biggest truth about energy transition is that it will be expensive. Yet governments have never clearly told the public that. Dan Balaban, CEO of Calgary-based renewable developer Greengate Power, framed it as a systemic shift: the cost of traditional energy is rising, and it's unrealistic to expect a rapid transition to net-zero without price impacts.
In the short term, forecasts suggest oil and gas will remain expensive. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to average $108 per barrel in the second half of 2022, with U.S. natural gas prices averaging $8.69 per million British thermal units in the third quarter. Renewable capacity is expected to reach record levels this year, but growth is projected to plateau in 2023 without stronger government policies to sustain it.
What's emerging is a collision between three forces: global energy security concerns sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the accelerating push toward net-zero policies, and a shortage of investment in new energy supplies. The result is a squeeze on affordability that experts say will persist. The question now is whether governments will acknowledge to their citizens what the transition actually costs, or whether the burden will fall quietly on those least able to bear it.
Citações Notáveis
As we decarbonize, we are going to increase that cost. We need to be very mindful that we don't have an unintended consequence that the most vulnerable Canadians are left footing the bill.— Melanie Bayley, president of ATCO Electric
The single-biggest truth about energy transition is that it's going to be costly. It is going to be expensive, but governments have never, ever articulated that to anybody.— Amrita Sen, research director at Energy Aspects
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Politics & Governance