The undecided are people caught between two visions
Con diez días antes de la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana, el país atraviesa un momento de consolidación incómoda: Keiko Fujimori lidera con 36 por ciento frente al 30 por ciento de Roberto Sánchez, pero lo más revelador no son los puntajes sino el movimiento debajo de ellos. El voto de protesta —que en abril representaba a uno de cada cuatro peruanos— se ha derrumbado, y los indecisos casi se han duplicado, señal de que el electorado ya no rechaza la elección, sino que aún no termina de hacerla. En una democracia marcada por la desconfianza y la fragmentación, este momento de decisión forzada revela tanto sobre el estado del país como cualquier resultado final podría hacerlo.
- Fujimori mantiene una ventaja de seis puntos, pero un tercio del electorado sigue sin definirse, convirtiendo cada día restante en terreno disputado.
- El voto en blanco y nulo se desplomó del 24 al 6 por ciento en un mes: los peruanos que antes se negaban a elegir ahora están siendo absorbidos por la contienda real.
- Los indecisos casi se duplicaron —del 13 al 26 por ciento— lo que sugiere que muchos ex-votantes de protesta aún no encuentran en ningún candidato una razón suficiente para comprometerse.
- Las geografías de ambos candidatos son casi un negativo fotográfico: Fujimori domina Lima y los sectores acomodados, mientras Sánchez lidera en el campo, el sur y entre los más pobres.
- El nueve por ciento que admite poder cambiar de opinión representa el margen que podría decidir la presidencia antes del 8 de junio.
A diez días de la segunda vuelta, una encuesta del IEP retrata a un Perú en movimiento. Keiko Fujimori lidera con 36 por ciento frente al 30 por ciento de Roberto Sánchez, pero la verdadera tensión está en lo que se mueve por debajo: los indecisos casi se duplicaron desde abril, pasando del 13 al 26 por ciento, mientras el voto en blanco y nulo —que en abril representaba a casi una cuarta parte del electorado— se derrumbó al 6 por ciento. Dos tercios de los votantes dicen tener su decisión tomada, pero el tercio restante, incluido un 9 por ciento que admite poder cambiar de opinión, podría definir el resultado.
La geografía del apoyo a Fujimori refleja su base histórica: 51 por ciento en Lima Metropolitana, mayoría entre jóvenes de 18 a 29 años y entre los sectores de mayor ingreso, donde alcanza el 50 por ciento. Su electorado se identifica firmemente con la derecha y tiene niveles educativos más altos. Sánchez, en cambio, encuentra su mayor fortaleza en el campo —42 por ciento en zonas rurales— y en el sur y centro del país. Su base es más vieja dentro de la población activa, más pobre y más claramente de izquierda.
El colapso del voto protesta es quizás el dato más significativo de la encuesta. Lo que en abril era una señal masiva de rechazo a ambos candidatos se ha evaporado casi por completo. Algunos de esos votantes migraron a la indecisión, pero la tendencia apunta a algo más profundo: conforme se acerca el 8 de junio, los peruanos parecen estar eligiendo en lugar de quejarse. La pregunta que queda es hacia dónde romperán los que aún no deciden.
Ten days before Peru's presidential runoff, the latest IEP poll captures a country in motion. Keiko Fujimori holds 36 percent support, a six-point lead over Roberto Sánchez, who stands at 30 percent. But the real story lives in the volatility underneath those numbers: the undecided have nearly doubled since April, jumping from 13 to 26 percent. Meanwhile, the protest vote—blank and null ballots that once represented a quarter of the electorate—has collapsed to just 6 percent.
The survey, conducted between May 22 and 26, reveals a electorate that was once fractured is now consolidating, though not necessarily toward clarity. Two-thirds of voters say their minds are already made up and won't shift. Yet that leaves a third still in motion, and among them, 9 percent explicitly acknowledge they might yet change course. In a race this tight, that floating population could determine everything.
Fujimori's geography tells the story of her base. She dominates Lima Metropolitana with 51 percent, a commanding position in the capital that has historically decided national elections. The north backs her at 32 percent. But her reach thins as you move away from wealth and urban centers: she captures 29 percent in the south, 26 percent in the center, and just 21 percent in rural areas. Her support skews toward the young and the established—41 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 prefer her, as do 38 percent of those 50 and older. Among the wealthy (A/B socioeconomic bracket), she reaches 50 percent. Among the poorest (D/E), she manages only 27 percent. Her voters tend to have higher education and identify firmly with the right: 60 percent place themselves on the ideological right, and 40 percent say they follow politics closely.
Sánchez's map is inverted. He finds his strongest footing in the rural countryside, where he reaches 42 percent—a striking advantage in a country where rural voters have often been overlooked. The center and south of the country lean toward him (40 and 35 percent respectively), as does the eastern region at 38 percent. Urban areas are tougher terrain, yielding him only 31 percent. His voters skew older within the working-age population: he performs best among those 30 to 49 years old at 34 percent. He has genuine traction in the poorest socioeconomic sectors, reaching 34 percent in D/E brackets. His base is ideologically coherent—64 percent identify as left—and politically engaged, with 42 percent saying they follow politics closely.
The collapse of the blank and null vote is perhaps the most significant shift in the data. In April, nearly a quarter of respondents were signaling their rejection of both candidates through protest ballots. That option has evaporated. Some of those voters have moved into the undecided column, but the trend suggests that as the runoff approaches, Peruvians are making a choice rather than registering a complaint. The question now is which way the remaining undecided will break, and whether the 9 percent willing to change their minds will do so before June 8.
Notable Quotes
Two-thirds of voters say their minds are already made up and won't shift— IEP poll data
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
The undecided nearly doubled in a month. What changed?
People stopped treating this as a choice they could refuse. When blank and null votes were an option, they felt like a legitimate third way. As the runoff got real, that option lost its appeal.
So they're not becoming more decided—they're becoming more forced to decide?
Exactly. The 65 percent who say their vote is locked in, they're mostly people who already knew which side they were on. The undecided are people caught between two visions of the country, and they're running out of time to avoid picking one.
Fujimori's lead is six points. Is that safe?
Not in a runoff where a third of the country is still moving. She's strong in Lima and among the wealthy, but Sánchez owns the countryside. If rural voters turn out and the undecided break left, the math changes fast.
What does the 9 percent who might change their minds tell us?
That even people who think they've decided aren't entirely settled. Something could still shift them—a statement, an event, a moment of doubt. In a close race, that's the margin.
Why did the protest vote collapse so dramatically?
Because you can't protest your way out of a runoff. You have to pick. The people who wanted to say no to both candidates realized that saying nothing means accepting whoever wins.