The only winning move is not to play
Michael Burry, el inversor que anticipó el colapso hipotecario de 2008, ha apostado 1.100 millones de dólares contra Nvidia y Palantir, dos de los emblemas más visibles del auge de la inteligencia artificial. A través de opciones de venta, Burry señala que el sector ha acumulado una euforia desconectada de sus fundamentos reales, evocando los excesos de la burbuja puntocom del año 2000. En un momento en que 161.000 millones de dólares se han concentrado en apenas diez empresas de IA, y Nvidia ha alcanzado una valoración de cinco billones de dólares, la advertencia de quien ya vio lo que nadie quería ver resulta difícil de ignorar.
- Burry ha desplegado 912 millones contra Palantir y 187 millones contra Nvidia mediante puts, apostando a que ambas compañías están sobrevaluadas y próximas a caer.
- El mercado reaccionó de inmediato: Palantir cedió un 7% y Nvidia un 2% en la preapertura, señal de que los inversores toman en serio a quien ya predijo la crisis de 2008.
- La concentración extrema del capital —161.000 millones en solo diez empresas, con Nvidia valorada por encima del PIB de Alemania— alimenta el argumento de que el sector ha perdido contacto con la realidad.
- Voces internas como Sam Altman, investigadores del MIT y el propio David Solomon de Goldman Sachs han admitido que gran parte de la inversión en IA no generará rentabilidad, reforzando el escepticismo de Burry.
- La pregunta que sobrevuela los mercados es si esta apuesta será otro golpe de genio o si el entusiasmo por la IA resistirá la presión de uno de los pocos inversores que saben leer el silencio antes de la tormenta.
Michael Burry, el inversor cuya apuesta contra el mercado hipotecario fue inmortalizada en la película 'La gran apuesta', ha vuelto a posicionarse contra la corriente. Esta vez, su objetivo es la inteligencia artificial. A través de su fondo Scion Asset Management, ha comprometido 1.100 millones de dólares en opciones de venta contra Nvidia —fabricante de los chips que alimentan los sistemas de IA— y Palantir, firma de análisis de datos. La apuesta suma 912 millones contra Palantir y 187 millones contra Nvidia.
El peso de este movimiento no reside solo en su magnitud, sino en su autor. Burry identificó la podredumbre del mercado inmobiliario años antes de que colapsara en 2008, cuando la mayoría de los inversores permanecía optimista. Ahora, en pleno fervor por la IA, ha recurrido a las redes sociales para hacer pública su alarma: publicó una imagen del personaje que Christian Bale interpretó en el filme, acompañada de un mensaje sobre burbujas que se ven pero no siempre se pueden evitar, junto a gráficos que comparan el gasto tecnológico actual con el de la burbuja puntocom.
Los números que sustentan su tesis son llamativos. Este año han fluido 161.000 millones de dólares hacia empresas de IA, pero concentrados en apenas diez compañías. Nvidia alcanzó una valoración de cinco billones de dólares —superior al PIB de Alemania—, y Palantir ha subido un 400% en el último año. Sin embargo, el propio Sam Altman reconoció que los inversores podrían estar siendo 'demasiado entusiastas', un equipo del MIT concluyó que la mayoría de las inversiones en IA no generan retorno, y David Solomon de Goldman Sachs advirtió que gran parte del capital desplegado 'no generará rentabilidad'.
El mercado escuchó. Palantir cayó un 7% y Nvidia un 2% en la preapertura tras conocerse la posición de Burry. Analistas como James Kardatzke, de Quiver Quantitative, señalan que su historial detectando burbujas antes de que estallen otorga credibilidad a esta nueva apuesta. Si el ciclo se repite o si la IA desafía la gravedad histórica es la pregunta que ahora pesa sobre los mercados.
Michael Burry, the investor whose prescient bet against the housing market became the subject of a Hollywood film, has placed a new wager that could shake the technology sector. This time, his target is artificial intelligence—a field that has attracted staggering amounts of capital in 2025. Through his fund, Scion Asset Management, Burry has committed $1.1 billion to a bet that two of AI's most celebrated companies will collapse: Nvidia, which manufactures the chips powering AI systems, and Palantir, a data analytics firm. The bet takes the form of put options—financial contracts that pay off when stock prices fall—totaling $912 million against Palantir and $187 million against Nvidia.
Burry's move carries weight because of what he did before. In the years leading up to 2008, he identified the rot in the housing market while most investors remained bullish, positioning himself to profit from the crash that would trigger a global financial crisis. His ability to see what others missed became the stuff of legend, immortalized in the 2015 film "The Big Short," which cast Christian Bale as Burry. Now, at a moment when artificial intelligence dominates investment conversations and venture capital flows freely into the sector, Burry is signaling alarm.
He took to social media to make his case public. On X, he posted an image of Bale's character from the film alongside a message: sometimes you see bubbles, sometimes you can do something about them, and sometimes the only winning move is not to play. He followed this with charts comparing current technology spending patterns to those of the dot-com bubble at the turn of the millennium, and graphs showing a slowdown in cloud computing demand. The message was unmistakable—Burry believes the AI sector has become untethered from reality.
The market responded immediately. Nvidia's stock fell 2 percent in pre-market trading after news of Burry's position became public. Palantir dropped 7 percent. These moves, while not catastrophic, signaled that investors were paying attention to a voice with a proven track record of seeing danger where others saw only opportunity.
The numbers underlying the AI boom are indeed striking. According to investment data from PitchBook, $161 billion has flowed into artificial intelligence companies so far this year, but the concentration is extreme—just ten companies have captured the bulk of that capital. Nvidia recently became the first publicly traded company to reach a $5 trillion valuation, a figure that exceeds the entire gross domestic product of Germany. Palantir's stock has surged 400 percent over the past year. These valuations rest on the assumption that AI will generate enormous returns, but that assumption is increasingly questioned even by insiders. Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, acknowledged during the summer that investors might be "too enthusiastic" about artificial intelligence. A research team at MIT published a report in August concluding that most AI investments produce no return whatsoever. David Solomon, who runs Goldman Sachs, stated bluntly that much of the capital being deployed "will not generate profitability."
Experts who track market movements note that Burry's track record gives his current position credibility. James Kardatzke, a cofounder of Quiver Quantitative, observed that Burry has demonstrated an unusual ability to identify bubbles before they burst, and this new revelation suggests he now believes an AI bubble exists and is approaching its breaking point. Whether the market will heed this warning, or whether the AI boom will continue unabated, remains to be seen. But Burry's $1.1 billion bet ensures that his skepticism will be impossible to ignore.
Notable Quotes
Investors might be too enthusiastic about artificial intelligence— Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI
Much of the capital invested will not generate profitability— David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Burry's opinion matter more than any other skeptic's?
Because he's done it before. He didn't just predict the 2008 crisis—he positioned himself to profit from it when almost everyone else was still buying. That track record gives him credibility that a typical analyst doesn't have.
But couldn't he be wrong this time? Markets have surprised people before.
Absolutely. But what's interesting is that he's not alone in his concerns. Even Sam Altman at OpenAI has said investors might be too enthusiastic. The MIT research suggests most AI investments aren't paying off. Burry is just the loudest voice saying what others are whispering.
The numbers are staggering—$161 billion in one year, mostly to ten companies. Does that feel like a bubble to you?
It feels like concentration risk at minimum. When that much capital chases the same handful of companies, valuations can detach from what those companies actually earn. Nvidia is worth more than Germany's entire economy. That's a number worth sitting with.
What happens if Burry is right and the bubble bursts?
A lot of people lose money. But more importantly, it could slow AI development itself if capital dries up. The irony is that a crash might actually be healthy—it would separate the companies with real products from the ones riding hype.
Is he betting against AI itself, or just against these two companies being overvalued?
The distinction matters. He's not saying AI won't matter. He's saying Nvidia and Palantir have gotten too expensive relative to what they'll actually earn. That's a valuation call, not a technology call.