Across Indonesia, a long stretch of almost no rain from June through October left the land dry enough to burn, and when the fires took hold their smoke settled over towns and drifted into Singapore and Malaysia. A new study by World Weather Attribution now gives shape to what happened: a strong El Niño withheld the rain, while human-driven warming made the heat and dryness far more likely. Set against decades of drained peatland and cleared forest, the season reads as both a sudden weather event and a long accumulation. The researchers' quiet warning is that this is not a one-off, and that the
El Niño and Climate Change Fueled Indonesia's Worst Fire Season in a Decade, Study Finds
Toxic smog from the fires prompted school closures in Indonesian towns and affected neighboring Singapore and Malaysia.
El Niño turned off the taps, but fossil fuel emissions turned up the heat.
Mark
What does this study actually add? Everyone knew El Niño brings drought to Indonesia.
Mimi
It separates the two causes. El Niño took away the rain, about 50% of the seasonal total by the researchers' estimate, and warming added heat on top. Climate change made the conditions roughly three times more likely.
Luke
Worth noting that the 50% rainfall cut is described as an estimate, and the threefold figure is the study's attribution result. Those are the researchers' findings, not direct measurements of the fires.
Mark
And the heat? How big was its contribution?
Mimi
From August to October, the seasonal heat was about 1.6 C hotter because of climate change, according to the study.
Mark
The smog crossed borders. What was the damage?
Mimi
Schools closed in Indonesian towns, Singapore and Malaysia were blanketed, diplomatic ties were strained, and palm oil output was curbed.
Luke
The source gives those consequences but no counts. We don't know how many schools closed, how many people were sickened, or how much palm oil was lost.
Mark
Is weather the whole story, then?
Mimi
No. The authors say decades of deforestation and peatland draining raised the fire risk significantly, and the fires are often tied to slash-and-burn farming.
Luke
Right, but the report doesn't say how much of this season's fire is due to land practices versus weather. That split isn't given here.
Mark
So what's the warning?
Mimi
Otto says that without a rapid move off fossil fuels and stronger land-management protections, worse seasons are coming.
O Pulso
- Indonesia's rainfall collapsed by roughly half under a strong El Niño, leaving forests and peatlands tinder-dry.
- Toxic smog shut schools in local towns and rolled across borders into Singapore and Malaysia, testing diplomatic ties.
- Palm oil output, a pillar of the regional economy, took a visible hit as the fires and haze spread.
- Scientists say climate change made the conditions about three times more likely, and the El Niño that set this up is still unfolding.
- Researchers are urging a faster exit from fossil fuels and stronger land protections before the next dry season arrives.
Across Indonesia, a long stretch of almost no rain from June through October left the land dry enough to burn, and when the fires took hold their smoke settled over towns and drifted into Singapore and Malaysia. A new study by World Weather Attribution now gives shape to what happened: a strong El Niño withheld the rain, while human-driven warming made the heat and dryness far more likely. Set against decades of drained peatland and cleared forest, the season reads as both a sudden weather event and a long accumulation. The researchers' quiet warning is that this is not a one-off, and that the dry months still ahead remain an open question.
From June through the end of October, almost no rain fell on much of Indonesia. By the time fires broke out, the land was bone-dry, and the smoke settled over local towns and drifted across borders into Singapore and Malaysia. Schools closed, relations between neighbors grew strained, and palm oil output, a pillar of the regional economy, took a hit.
A new World Weather Attribution study explains why this became the worst season in a decade. It finds that a strong El Niño and human-caused warming worked together. El Niño drove the severe rainfall shortfall, which the researchers estimate cut seasonal rain by about 50%. Climate change made the hot, dry conditions roughly three times more likely, and from August to October it made the heat about 1.6 C hotter.
The fires are often linked to slash-and-burn farming, and the parched land made them far harder to contain. The authors also point to decades of deforestation and peatland drainage, which raise fire risk in any year.
Friederike Otto, a co-author at Imperial College London, put it simply: El Niño turned off the taps, while fossil fuel emissions turned up the heat. The study's lead author, Theodore Keeping, called climate change a force multiplier in El Niño years.
The researchers do not see this as an isolated event. Without a rapid move away from fossil fuels and stronger protections for how land is managed, they warn, more fire seasons like this one, and worse ones, should be expected. The El Niño is still ongoing, so the coming dry months remain uncertain for Indonesia and its downwind neighbors.
From June through the end of October, almost no rain fell on much of Indonesia. By the time the fires took hold, the land was bone-dry, and the smoke that followed settled over local towns and drifted across borders into Singapore and Malaysia. Schools closed. Diplomatic relations between neighbors came under strain. Palm oil output, a pillar of the regional economy, took a hit.
Now a new study explains why this season became the worst Indonesia has seen in a decade. The report, published Friday by World Weather Attribution, concludes that two forces worked together: a strong El Niño and human-caused climate change. Each played a distinct role. El Niño drove the severe shortfall in rainfall, while warming from human activity pushed temperatures higher.
The researchers put numbers on both. The ongoing El Niño is estimated to have cut Indonesia's seasonal rainfall by about 50% this year. Climate change, the study found, made the hot and dry conditions about three times more likely, and more intense as well. From August to October, warming made the seasonal heat about 1.6 C hotter and more likely to occur. Together, the report said, these conditions produced what it called record-breaking fire weather.
The fires themselves are often linked to slash-and-burn agricultural practices, and the parched conditions made them harder to contain. The authors also pointed to a longer history on the ground: parts of Indonesia have seen decades of deforestation and peatland draining, which significantly raises fire risk regardless of the weather in any given year.
Friederike Otto, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London and a co-author of the study, summed up the division of labor in a single line: El Niño turned off the taps, but fossil fuel emissions turned up the heat. Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather and wildfire researcher at Imperial College London and the study's lead author, described climate change as a force multiplier in El Niño years. When a strong El Niño arrives, he said, global warming makes the resulting fire weather significantly hotter, drier and harder to contain.
The researchers did not frame the findings as a one-off. Otto warned that without a rapid transition away from fossil fuels and stronger protections for how land is managed, more fire seasons like this one, and worse ones, should be expected. The El Niño that helped set this season up is still ongoing, which keeps the question of the coming dry months open for Indonesia and for the neighbors downwind of its fires.
Citações Notáveis
El Niño turned off the taps, but fossil fuel emissions turned up the heat.— Friederike Otto, professor of climate science, Imperial College London
Climate change acts as a force multiplier during El Niño years.— Theodore Keeping, lead author, Imperial College London
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Leia o original em The Japan Times ↗