You with the same old people; me with the never-before.
With less than a month before Colombia's May 31 presidential vote, the country finds itself at a familiar crossroads — a fractured right struggling to coalesce against a consolidating left. Iván Cepeda, heir to the Pacto Histórico coalition, commands the field with 37 percent while his rivals trade accusations more freely than they offer alternatives. In a nation where institutional trust, security, and the memory of past conflicts still shape every ballot, this election is less a contest of programs than a referendum on what kind of Colombia the next generation will inherit.
- Cepeda's lead is hardening as former rivals and center-left figures formally fold their campaigns into his, leaving the opposition scrambling to find a single credible challenger before the first round.
- The right is consuming itself — de la Espriella and Valencia have turned their rivalry into a public feud over debate formats and political purity, each more eager to wound the other than to close the gap with the frontrunner.
- Allegations of phone hacking, a minister's explosive outbursts, and accusations of government interference in the campaign are injecting a current of institutional anxiety into an already charged atmosphere.
- Electoral integrity is under strain: a major polling firm has gone dark citing new regulations it calls unworkable, and authorities are investigating whether de la Espriella's registration signatures were genuine.
- Centrist Sergio Fajardo is waging a parallel battle — gathering signatures to block a constitutional assembly and publicly confronting Petro over broken promises to student debtors — staking out the role of policy conscience in a race dominated by noise.
Colombia's presidential race is entering its final weeks before the May 31 vote, and the political landscape is fracturing along lines that expose the country's enduring divisions. Iván Cepeda, the left-wing senator running under the Pacto Histórico banner, leads with 37 percent in the latest polls, while the right-wing field remains split between ultraright outsider Abelardo de la Espriella at 20.4 percent and uribista senator Paloma Valencia at 15.6 percent. The narrow gap between them has turned their rivalry bitter, with each more focused on disqualifying the other than on challenging Cepeda.
De la Espriella has built his campaign around an anti-establishment identity, presenting himself as untouched by political office and promising to solve Bogotá's chronic problems through sheer force of will. Valencia, rooted in the traditional right and backed by the Char family network, has tried to draw him into a one-on-one debate — a challenge he rejected, accusing her of having already blocked a debate he preferred. Their exchanges have grown personal and unproductive, and the right's inability to consolidate is quietly clearing Cepeda's path.
Cepeda, meanwhile, has been methodically absorbing the center-left. Former foreign minister Luis Gilberto Murillo withdrew his independent candidacy and endorsed Cepeda, joining a growing list of figures — including former Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo and the Alianza Verde party — who have rallied behind him. The coalition is widening, and a first-round victory no longer looks implausible.
Centrist Sergio Fajardo is fighting on a different front, leading a signature campaign to block President Petro's push for a constitutional assembly and publicly challenging the government over its underfunding of ICETEX, the student loan agency. When Petro declared on social media that he wanted young Colombians to study for free, Fajardo responded sharply, noting that thousands of students remain trapped in debt while the government abandoned the very institution meant to help them.
The campaign has also been shadowed by darker tensions. Valencia has alleged her phone is being hacked and has retained legal counsel to pursue an investigation. Interior Minister Armando Benedetti, denying rumors that he was backing Valencia, responded with a torrent of personal attacks on de la Espriella and his allies — language that opposition senators have condemned as evidence of illegal government involvement in the race. Adding to the unease, Spanish polling firm GAD3 has suspended its surveys, citing new regulations it says make credible polling impossible, while electoral authorities investigate whether de la Espriella's registration signatures were authentic. With three weeks remaining, the race is Cepeda's to lose — but the mounting tensions suggest the road ahead will be neither smooth nor quiet.
Colombia's presidential race is entering its final stretch before the May 31 vote, and the landscape is fractured in ways that reveal the country's deep political divisions. Iván Cepeda, the left-wing senator from the ruling Pacto Histórico coalition, commands the field with a commanding 37 percent of voter intention according to the latest Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll. Behind him, the race for second place has become a bruising fight between two right-wing candidates who seem to despise each other more than they oppose Cepeda himself.
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraright lawyer running under the Salvación Nacional banner, holds 20.4 percent, while Paloma Valencia, the uribista senator from the Centro Democrático, trails at 15.6 percent. The gap between them is narrow enough to matter, and both are fighting for the chance to face Cepeda in a potential runoff. De la Espriella has been building his campaign around an anti-establishment message, positioning himself as the outsider who will "liberate" Bogotá from "the slavery of the same old people." At a rally in the northern Usaquén plaza, he promised to solve the city's chronic problems—traffic, bus frequency, rental abuses, tax pressure, insecurity—with what he called "decision and character." He has also made a point of thanking God that he has no experience in public office, calling himself uncontaminated by politics. Valencia, by contrast, represents the traditional right, backed by the Char family clan and rooted in the uribista establishment.
The tension between them has boiled over into personal attacks. When Valencia proposed a debate between just the two of them, de la Espriella refused, saying she had already rejected a debate moderated by news anchor Luis Carlos Vélez. He framed the choice starkly: "You with the same old people; me with the never-before." Valencia shot back that she is indeed "the one always defending Colombia," and that the label "never" suits him just fine. She also pointed out that de la Espriella criticizes Cepeda for avoiding debates while refusing to debate himself. The right is splintering, and neither candidate seems willing to give the other a platform.
Meanwhile, Cepeda has been consolidating his position through strategic alliances. Luis Gilberto Murillo, the former foreign minister and a figure from the fractured center-left, formally withdrew his independent candidacy on Wednesday and threw his support behind Cepeda's campaign. Murillo, who had been a running mate of centrist Sergio Fajardo in the 2022 first round before backing Petro in the runoff, said his decision "aligns with the future of Colombia." His endorsement follows earlier commitments from former Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo, Senator Clara López Obregón, and the Alianza Verde party. Cepeda's campaign is absorbing the left and center-left, leaving him with a clear path to a first-round victory.
Centrist Sergio Fajardo, meanwhile, is fighting on a different front. He has launched a signature-gathering campaign to block President Gustavo Petro's plan for a constitutional assembly, arguing that such a move would deepen social division and institutional uncertainty rather than solve Colombia's urgent problems. The electoral authority has cleared his committee to collect the roughly three million signatures needed to trigger a referendum on constitutional stability. Fajardo has also been hammering Petro over the government's underfunding of ICETEX, the student loan agency. When Petro tweeted that he wants young people to study for free rather than take on debt, Fajardo responded that it is easy to pose as a youth defender on social media while abandoning the institution that provides educational financing. "You promised to forgive student debts. You didn't. Thousands of young people are still trapped paying loans while your government abandoned the entity," Fajardo wrote. He has presented a five-point education plan spanning early childhood through post-secondary schooling, positioning himself as the serious policy candidate against what he calls Petro's propaganda.
The campaign has also been marked by security concerns and accusations of impropriety. Valencia has alleged that her phone is being hacked, saying her security-related messages are in someone else's hands. She has retained lawyer Jaime Lombana to file a complaint and demand that the prosecutor's office investigate. Interior Minister Armando Benedetti, who oversees election security, has been drawn into the fray. When influencers close to de la Espriella spread rumors that Benedetti was supporting Valencia, he responded with fury, calling them "small-time drug dealers of a presidential campaign" and warning that "everyone who has messed with me in a campaign ends up badly." He also denied any support for Valencia, saying his only allegiance is to candidates who continue Petro's project. The minister's aggressive rhetoric—including crude personal attacks on de la Espriella's appearance—has drawn criticism from opposition senators who say Petro's government is illegally participating in the campaign.
Electoral integrity itself has become a flashpoint. The Spanish polling firm GAD3, contracted by RCN, has suspended publication of electoral surveys, citing new Colombian regulations that it says make rigorous polling impossible. The firm's last survey showed Cepeda at 36 percent, de la Espriella at 21 percent, and Valencia at 13 percent. The electoral authority is also investigating de la Espriella's candidacy, examining whether the signatures he submitted to register were authentic. De la Espriella has dismissed the inquiry as a legal maneuver by opponents trying to knock him out of the race, insisting that all his signatures were verified by the electoral registry. With the first round less than three weeks away, the race remains Cepeda's to lose, but the right-wing split and the mounting tensions suggest that the path to the presidency will be contested and contentious.
Citações Notáveis
We came to liberate you from the slavery of the same old people.— Abelardo de la Espriella, at campaign rally in Bogotá
It is very easy to pose as a defender of young people on social media when you have spent your entire government breaking promises to them.— Sergio Fajardo, responding to President Petro on education funding
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Cepeda's lead feel so commanding when the right is still fighting over second place?
Because the left and center-left have consolidated behind him. Murillo, Cristo, López Obregón, the Alianza Verde—they've all folded into his campaign. The right, by contrast, is divided between de la Espriella's anti-establishment populism and Valencia's traditional uribismo. They're competing for the same voters but can't agree on anything, not even whether to debate each other.
What's driving de la Espriella's appeal if he's so far behind?
He's tapping into genuine frustration with the political establishment. His message—"the never" versus "the always"—resonates with voters tired of the same faces. He's also benefiting from the fact that Valencia peaked after winning the right-wing primary in March. She's lost ground since then, and he's picked it up. But he's also controversial. He's been sued over his signature collection, and there are questions about his past clients in the paramilitary world.
Is Benedetti's behavior as Interior Minister appropriate?
That's the real question. He's supposed to oversee fair elections, but he's been publicly attacking de la Espriella's appearance, warning influencers that they'll "end up badly," and generally acting like a campaign operative. The opposition is right to call it out. It looks like the government is using state power to protect its candidate.
What about Valencia's phone hacking claim?
It's serious if true, but it's also become tangled up in the campaign noise. She says her security messages are compromised. She's hired a lawyer to investigate. But she's also been accused of spreading rumors about Benedetti supporting her, which he's denied. Everyone's accusing everyone else of dirty tricks.
Does Fajardo have any real chance?
Not in the first round. He's polling at 2.7 percent. But he's not trying to win on May 31. He's building a constitutional argument against Petro's reform agenda, and he's positioning himself as the serious policy alternative. If there's a runoff, he might matter as a kingmaker or as a voice in the broader political conversation.
What happens if Cepeda wins the first round but faces a runoff?
The polls show him beating any of his rivals in a second round. Against de la Espriella, he wins 46.4 to 37.9 percent. Against Valencia, 44 to 40 percent. But those numbers also show that 32.7 percent of voters say they would never vote for Cepeda. That's his ceiling and his vulnerability. If the right consolidates, or if something shifts the narrative, a runoff could be closer than the first-round numbers suggest.