I'm the president, I'm the one naming ministers, and the country needs to get used to it.
With barely a month before Colombia's May 31 presidential election, the campaign has become a mirror of the country's oldest wounds: armed violence, ideological fracture, and the unresolved question of whether peace or force can finally quiet a nation that has known neither for long. Left-wing frontrunner Iván Cepeda leads from a position of consolidated unity, while the right splinters between hardline uribismo and centrist pragmatism, and a bombing in Cauca that killed more than twenty civilians reminds every candidate that the stakes of this election are measured in human lives, not only votes.
- A bomb on the Panamericana highway in Cauca kills at least 20 civilians and wounds 36 more, attributed to FARC dissidents, injecting raw grief and fury into an already volatile campaign.
- Paloma Valencia's proposal to name Álvaro Uribe as Defense Minister fractures her own coalition, forcing her running mate to publicly distance himself and exposing the ideological fault lines holding the right together.
- Iván Cepeda sits at 36–44% in polls and has spent months avoiding debates, but assassination threats — including one he says the CIA flagged — and mounting pressure from rival candidates are forcing him into the open.
- Valencia, De la Espriella, and the left trade accusations over who bears moral responsibility for the Cauca violence, turning civilian tragedy into campaign ammunition while the government offers a billion-peso reward to protect candidates' lives.
- With the Greens split, the Liberals absorbed into the right, and seven lesser-known candidates demanding legally mandated debates, the race is consolidating toward a probable second-round runoff between a unified left and a fractured right.
Colombia's presidential race is cracking along ideological seams as the May 31 vote approaches, with security crises in the southwestern Cauca region reshaping the campaign and exposing the fragility of the right-wing coalition.
Paloma Valencia, who won the right's primary with 1.2 million votes and has since secured Liberal Party backing, ignited internal conflict by proposing former president Álvaro Uribe as Defense Minister — a return to his 'democratic security' doctrine. Her running mate, centrist Juan Daniel Oviedo, publicly distanced himself on radio, prompting Valencia to sharpen her tone: 'I'm the president, I'm the one naming ministers.' The exchange lays bare the tension at the heart of her coalition, which must hold together Uribe loyalists and moderate centrists with fundamentally different governing visions.
Left-wing frontrunner Iván Cepeda, meanwhile, commands 36 to 44 percent in polls, with Valencia and ultra-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella trading second place around 20 percent. The Alianza Verde endorsed Cepeda this week, though the decision divided the party. Having avoided debates for months, Cepeda finally challenged his two main rivals to face-to-face confrontations — while insisting on controlling the format. Both accepted, with Valencia declaring herself 'ready, even if he wants to rig it.'
The campaign's tone darkened sharply after a bombing on the Panamericana highway in Cauca killed at least 20 civilians and wounded 36 others, attributed to FARC dissidents. Valencia and De la Espriella seized on the attack to condemn President Petro's 'total peace' policy, with Valencia promising 'total security' and De la Espriella vowing to treat armed groups as 'military objectives.' Valencia also announced she had received a death threat from the ELN, framing it as evidence of her resolve. Cepeda, for his part, said the CIA had warned him of an assassination plot — but declined to publicize details to avoid panic.
The Cauca violence became a political weapon in its own right. Valencia traveled to Popayán to stand with victims while attacking left-wing vice-presidential candidate Aida Quilcué, who had suggested a suspicious sequence linking paramilitary activity, the bombings, and Valencia's Uribe announcement. Valencia announced she would sue Quilcué for 'blaming the opposition for terrorism.' Uribe, meanwhile, accused the ELN of directing supporters to vote for Cepeda to guarantee a first-round victory.
With seven lesser-known candidates demanding the state broadcaster organize the three legally mandated debates, and the Defense Ministry offering a billion-peso reward for information preventing attacks on candidates, the race has devolved into accusations and threats that crowd out substantive policy. The right remains divided; the left, consolidated. Whether the promised debates shift the dynamic — or whether fragmentation on one side and unity on the other simply hold — will likely determine whether Colombia heads into a second-round runoff, and in what spirit.
Colombia's presidential race is fracturing along ideological lines as the May 31 election approaches, with security crises in the southwestern Cauca region reshaping campaign dynamics and exposing deep fissures within the right-wing coalition.
Paloma Valencia, the uribista candidate who won the right's primary with 1.2 million votes, has consolidated backing from the Liberal Party and most traditional conservative movements. But her proposal to appoint former president Álvaro Uribe as Defense Minister has exposed tensions with her running mate, centrist Juan Daniel Oviedo. When Valencia announced the idea at an Antioquia campaign event, framing it as a return to Uribe's "democratic security" doctrine, Oviedo publicly distanced himself. "I don't think that's the message," he said in a radio interview, though he added he respected her authority. By Tuesday night, Valencia had sharpened her position: "I'm the president, I'm the one naming ministers, and the country needs to get used to it. We'll have uribista ministers and centrist ministers." The tension reflects a deeper problem—Valencia is trying to hold together a coalition that stretches from hardline Uribe loyalists to moderate centrists, each with different visions of how to govern.
Meanwhile, left-wing frontrunner Iván Cepeda maintains a commanding lead in polling. Recent surveys show him at 36 to 44 percent, depending on the pollster, while his two main challengers—Valencia and ultra-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella—hover around 20 percent and trade the second-place position. The Alianza Verde, Colombia's Green Party, formally endorsed Cepeda this week, though the decision split the party; centrist members lamented being locked out of supporting Claudia López, the moderate alternative. Cepeda's dominance has allowed him to avoid debates for months, a strategy that frustrated other candidates. Only this past weekend did he finally challenge Valencia and De la Espriella to face-to-face confrontations, though he insisted on controlling the format, moderators, and topics. Both opponents accepted immediately, with Valencia declaring she was "ready, even if he wants to rig it."
The campaign's tone has turned vicious. A bombing on the Panamericana highway in Cauca on Saturday killed at least 20 civilians and wounded 36 others, an attack attributed to FARC dissidents led by someone known as Marlon. Valencia and De la Espriella seized on the tragedy to attack Petro's "total peace" policy, which attempted simultaneous negotiations with all armed groups. Valencia promised "total security" in its place and vowed to reactivate arrest warrants against criminals named as peace negotiators. De la Espriella went further, declaring the armed groups "military objectives" he would "hunt like vermin." Valencia also announced she had received a death threat from the ELN guerrilla group and claimed the government had informed her of a terrorist plot against her life, allegedly involving a 2 billion peso bounty. She framed the threat as proof of her courage and commitment to security.
The violence in Cauca has become a weapon in the campaign. Valencia, who is from the region, traveled to Popayán to express solidarity with victims while blaming Petro for the crisis. She attacked left-wing vice-presidential candidate Aida Quilcué, also from Cauca, for suggesting a link between right-wing opposition and the attacks. "Now the guerrillas became uribistas," Valencia wrote sarcastically on social media, announcing she would sue Quilcué for "blaming the opposition for terrorism." Quilcué had posted a video noting that AUC paramilitary banners appeared in the region before the attacks, followed by bombings, followed by Valencia's announcement of Uribe as Defense Minister—a sequence she presented as suspicious. The exchange illustrates how the candidates are weaponizing tragedy for electoral advantage.
Threat levels against multiple candidates have escalated. Valencia reported the ELN threat; Cepeda said the CIA had informed him of an assassination plot, though he refused to abandon his campaign or publicize the details to avoid spreading panic. Uribe, Valencia's mentor, accused the ELN of orchestrating threats against her and claimed the guerrilla was ordering supporters to vote for Cepeda to ensure a first-round victory. The Defense Ministry offered a 1 billion peso reward for information preventing attacks on any candidate. Seven lesser-known candidates—Claudia López, Sergio Fajardo, Luis Gilberto Murillo, and others—demanded that the state broadcaster organize the three debates mandated by electoral law, frustrated that the frontrunners were controlling the narrative. López pointedly noted that if Cepeda refused to debate with all candidates, "it will be clear he's the only one censoring."
With just over a month until the vote, the right remains divided and the left consolidated. Valencia has assembled the backing of traditional parties—the Liberals, Conservatives, and much of Cambio Radical—but her coalition is ideologically unstable. De la Espriella, running as an independent ultra-right alternative, has mobilized more poll watchers than any other movement, signaling grassroots energy. Cepeda's lead appears durable, but the campaign has devolved into accusations, threats, and security crises that overshadow substantive debate about policy. The question now is whether the promised debates will shift the dynamics or whether the right's fragmentation and the left's unity will hold through to a likely second-round runoff.
Notable Quotes
I don't think that's the message. I told her so last night, but you have to respect her.— Juan Daniel Oviedo, Valencia's running mate, on her proposal to appoint Uribe as Defense Minister
Now the guerrillas became uribistas. I'm going to sue Aida Quilcué for blaming the opposition for the terrorism shaking the southwest.— Paloma Valencia, responding to left-wing claims linking opposition rhetoric to attacks
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Valencia's proposal to make Uribe Defense Minister matter so much? Isn't that just a personnel decision?
It's a signal about what kind of government she'd run. Uribe's "democratic security" doctrine killed thousands of civilians labeled as combat deaths—the "false positives" scandal. By proposing him now, after bombings in Cauca killed 20 people, Valencia is saying she'll prioritize military force over negotiation. Her running mate Oviedo disagreed publicly, which shows the coalition is already cracking.
So Oviedo represents the centrists who don't want that?
Exactly. He was chosen to make Valencia palatable to moderate voters. But she's signaling to the uribista base that she's really one of them. It's a balancing act that's visibly failing—the harder she leans right, the more Oviedo distances himself.
What about Cepeda's refusal to debate until now? That seems like a weakness.
It looked like one until the polls showed him at 36 to 44 percent. When you're that far ahead, debates are a risk. But the smaller candidates and the media kept pushing, and eventually the pressure worked. Now he's agreed, but only with Valencia and De la Espriella—not the other ten candidates. That's still controlling the narrative.
Is the violence in Cauca real or manufactured for the campaign?
The violence is absolutely real—20 people died on that highway. But the candidates are using it. Valencia and De la Espriella blame Petro's peace policy for creating space for the attacks. Cepeda and the left say the right is exploiting tragedy. Both are true in a way. The attacks happened because armed groups are fractured and fighting for territory. The candidates are just weaponizing the failure.
What happens if Cepeda wins the first round outright?
That's what he's aiming for—50 percent in May means no runoff, he's president immediately. But the latest polls suggest he's falling short of that threshold. If it goes to a second round, the right's fragmentation becomes crucial. De la Espriella voters might not support Valencia, and vice versa. That's why Oviedo keeps saying his presence is "uncomfortable" for the left—he's the bridge to centrist voters who'd never vote for De la Espriella.