Beneath the frozen expanse of East Antarctica, a vast and largely uncharted basin holds enough ice to rewrite the geography of every coastline on Earth. Scientists from 14 nations, confronting data that suggests the region is already shifting, have issued a collective call to study the Wilkes Subglacial Basin before its transformation outpaces our understanding of it. The atmosphere today carries more carbon dioxide than it did three million years ago, when this same ice sheet last retreated significantly — a historical echo that lends the urgency of the present moment a deep and unsettling re
East Antarctic ice basin poses major sea-level threat, researchers urge urgent study
We're at even higher CO2 than the Pliocene, but we still don't know how quickly change could occur.
Mark
So we're talking about an ice sheet that could raise sea levels by several metres. How much ice are we actually discussing here?
Mimi
The Wilkes Subglacial Basin is enormous—it's in East Antarctica, which is much larger and colder than the western ice sheet. The source doesn't give a total volume, but it's significant enough that scientists are treating it as a major sea-level threat.
Luke
Right, and that's worth noting—the source says it "holds enough ice to lift sea levels by several metres" but doesn't specify how many metres or give the actual volume. That's a real gap.
Mark
Why has this region been ignored for so long?
Mimi
It's largely unexplored. For a long time, researchers focused on West Antarctica because it seemed more obviously at risk. East Antarctica is so much colder and thicker that people didn't expect it to change in our lifetimes.
Luke
But the data they do have from surrounding areas suggests it's already changing. The Cook Glacier has been thinning since the 1990s and is now discharging 40 billion tonnes of ice annually.
Mark
That's a concrete number. What's driving that?
Mimi
Warming seawater is seeping beneath the ice sheet and melting it from below. Once that melting reaches a tipping point, the entire ice sheet can become unstable and collapse rapidly.
Luke
The mechanism is clear from the research. What's less clear is when that tipping point might arrive or how fast the collapse could happen.
Mark
They mention the Pliocene era—three million years ago. Why does that matter?
Mimi
The ice sheet retreated substantially then, when CO2 was between 365 and 415 parts per million. We're now at 426 ppm, so we've already exceeded those levels.
Luke
But Bertler herself says past climates aren't perfect mirrors of today. There's still real uncertainty about what will actually happen.
Mark
So what do they need to do?
Mimi
They need to drill deep into the ice to collect cores, map the seafloor, and set up continuous monitoring. It requires international coordination and multiple icebreakers.
Luke
And that coordination could take five to ten years just to arrange. A New Zealand team recently spent three summers trying to drill in West Antarctica, which is more accessible than the east.
Mark
It sounds almost impossible.
Mimi
It's extremely difficult, but the scientific community is united that it has to happen. The alternative is not knowing when or how the basin might collapse until it's too late.
El Pulso
- The Cook Glacier, the basin's main outlet, has been thinning since the 1990s and now sheds 40 billion tonnes of ice into the ocean every year — and the rate is accelerating.
- Current CO2 levels have already surpassed those of the Pliocene era, when the East Antarctic ice sheet underwent major retreat, yet scientists cannot say how quickly or at what threshold collapse might begin.
- No ship has come within 150 kilometres of the Cook Glacier's edge, and reaching the basin by land means crossing brutal terrain beyond the Trans-Antarctic Mountains — the data needed simply does not exist yet.
- Coordinating the icebreakers, funding, and political will required to mount a sustained research presence could take five to ten years — time that may matter enormously if the basin is closer to a tipping point than current models suggest.
- Researchers from 14 countries are now aligned on the mission: establish early warning systems capable of detecting imminent change before it cascades into consequences that permanently alter the world's coastlines.
Beneath the frozen expanse of East Antarctica, a vast and largely uncharted basin holds enough ice to rewrite the geography of every coastline on Earth. Scientists from 14 nations, confronting data that suggests the region is already shifting, have issued a collective call to study the Wilkes Subglacial Basin before its transformation outpaces our understanding of it. The atmosphere today carries more carbon dioxide than it did three million years ago, when this same ice sheet last retreated significantly — a historical echo that lends the urgency of the present moment a deep and unsettling resonance.
Beneath East Antarctica lies a region that scientists are only beginning to understand — and what little they know is enough to alarm them. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin holds sufficient frozen water to raise global sea levels by several metres, and researchers from 14 countries have now published an urgent call for coordinated international study before the basin changes in ways that cannot be reversed.
For decades, attention focused on West Antarctica, which is smaller, warmer, and more visibly unstable. East Antarctica was considered too vast and too cold to shift within a human lifetime. But sparse data from the edges of the Wilkes Basin is telling a different story. The Cook Glacier, its main outlet, has been thinning since the 1990s and now discharges 40 billion tonnes of ice annually — a figure that keeps rising. As ocean temperatures climb, seawater seeps beneath the ice sheet and melts it from below; once that process crosses a critical threshold, collapse can become self-sustaining.
The historical parallel is sobering. During the Pliocene era, three million years ago, the ice sheet retreated substantially when atmospheric CO2 sat between 365 and 415 parts per million. Today it stands at 426 — already beyond that range — yet scientists cannot say how quickly change might unfold or what precise warming level would trigger large-scale instability.
Answering those questions demands data that does not yet exist: sediment cores drilled from deep within the ice, detailed seafloor maps, and continuous glacier monitoring. The logistical obstacles are formidable. No vessel has come within 150 kilometres of the Cook Glacier's terminus, and a coordinated multi-icebreaker operation could take five to ten years to arrange. Overland access means crossing the Trans-Antarctic Mountains in notoriously brutal conditions.
Yet the scientific community is unified in its resolve. What is needed now, researchers say, is sustained political and financial commitment — a continuous presence in one of Earth's most hostile environments, so that early warning signs can be detected before they cascade into consequences that redraw coastlines across the globe.
Beneath the ice of East Antarctica lies a region so poorly understood that scientists are only now grasping what it could mean for the world's coastlines. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin holds enough frozen water to raise sea levels by several metres if it melts—a prospect that has prompted researchers from 14 countries, including New Zealand, to publish an urgent call for coordinated international study of the area before it changes in ways we cannot yet predict or control.
For decades, climate scientists focused their attention on West Antarctica, where the ice sheet is smaller, warmer, and more obviously vulnerable. Nancy Bertler, a climate scientist at Victoria University who co-authored the new study, recalls that when she and her colleagues began their careers, no one expected East Antarctica to shift significantly within a human lifetime. The eastern ice sheet is vastly larger, far colder, and sits in a much harsher climate than its western counterpart. Yet the sparse data now available from the edges of the Wilkes Basin tells a different story. The region is showing signs of instability, and the window to understand it may be closing.
The evidence is already visible in the basin's main outlet, the Cook Glacier. Since the 1990s, it has been thinning at an accelerating pace. Today it discharges 40 billion tonnes of ice into the ocean each year—a rate that continues to climb. Nick Golledge, an ice sheet modeller at Victoria University, explains the mechanism: as the ocean warms, seawater seeps beneath the ice sheet and begins melting it from below. Once this process reaches a critical threshold, the entire ice sheet can destabilize rapidly, triggering a cascade of collapse.
What makes the Wilkes Basin particularly alarming is the historical parallel. Three million years ago, during the Pliocene era, the ice sheet retreated substantially. At that time, atmospheric carbon dioxide hovered between 365 and 415 parts per million. Today, the concentration stands at 426 parts per million—higher than it was then. Bertler emphasizes that past climates are not perfect mirrors of the present, but the comparison is sobering. We have already exceeded the CO2 levels that preceded a major retreat, yet we do not know how quickly change might unfold or what specific warming threshold could trigger large-scale collapse.
The scientific consensus is clear: the basin has the potential to transform under continued warming. What remains unknown is the speed of that transformation, the precise climate tipping points that might set it in motion, and how much the basin could ultimately contribute to future sea-level rise. Answering these questions requires data that does not yet exist—rock and sediment cores drilled from deep within the ice, detailed maps of the seafloor beneath it, and continuous monitoring of the glacier's behaviour.
Obtaining that data will test the limits of polar research. A New Zealand-led team recently succeeded in retrieving a core from beneath half a kilometre of ice in West Antarctica, but the effort required three summers of work, two failed attempts, and a camp 1,100 kilometres from the nearest permanent base. East Antarctica presents even steeper obstacles. No ship has ventured within 150 kilometres of the Cook Glacier terminus. Reaching the basin by sea would require multiple icebreakers operating in the same region simultaneously—a logistical coordination that could take five to ten years to arrange. Access by land is equally daunting: the Trans-Antarctic Mountains separate the basin from New Zealand's Scott Base and the American McMurdo Station, and the weather in the region is notoriously brutal.
Yet Bertler insists the scientific community is unified in its determination to proceed. The stakes are too high to wait. What researchers need now is sustained political and financial commitment from the nations involved—a willingness to maintain a continuous presence in one of Earth's most hostile environments so that early warning signs of imminent change can be detected before they cascade into consequences that reshape coastlines around the world.
Citas Notables
What we now see in the sparse data from surrounding areas of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin really reinforces the message that it's an area that is at risk.— Nancy Bertler, Victoria University climate scientist
When this melting reaches a tipping point, the ice sheet can quickly become unstable.— Nick Golledge, Victoria University ice sheet modeller
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