Drone attack allegations against Haftar's son derail Libya unity talks

Libya's fragile attempt at political reunification fractured this fall over allegations that Saddam Haftar, the deputy commander of the eastern Libyan National Army and son of warlord Khalifa Haftar, orchestrated a campaign of drone strikes against fuel infrastructure in the western half of the country. The attacks, which occurred over five days in August, targeted the Zawiya oil complex west of Tripoli and other fuel storage facilities, igniting fires and destroying storage capacity. One gasoline tank at Zawiya, holding approximately 4.5 million litres of fuel when struck, collapsed entirely. The strikes worsened rolling blackouts already plaguing western Libya and triggered a political crisis that has now unraveled two separate diplomatic initiatives aimed at ending the country's fifteen-year division.

Libya has remained split since Muammar Gaddafi's fall in 2011, with the oil-rich east controlled by Khalifa Haftar and his military forces, and the west governed by the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. The country has paid the price for this division in corruption, militia violence, human trafficking, and the interference of foreign powers. In recent months, the Trump administration's Africa adviser, Massad Boulos, had been promoting a merger plan in which Haftar would assume the presidency while a member of the Dbeibah family would become prime minister. When asked whether this arrangement simply entrenched family dynasties in power, Boulos pushed back, saying the focus was on individuals filling necessary positions rather than on family names themselves.

But the drone campaign appears to have been triggered by frustration within Haftar's camp. According to sources close to the conflict, Saddam Haftar ordered the strikes in response to what he viewed as Dbeibah's deliberate stalling on the Boulos merger plan and to alleged encouragement from Tripoli for southern Libyan tribes to attack his forces. The strikes achieved their immediate effect: they created a humanitarian and political crisis in the west that put enormous pressure on the GNU government. On September 5, authorities arrested three Libyans and one Spanish citizen in southern Tripoli on suspicion of involvement in a plot that was meant to include an attack on Tripoli airport. Intelligence officials believed the full network involved five Spanish nationals and four Libyans, with the arrested Libyans allegedly affiliated with the Tareq ben Ziyad brigade, an LNA military formation. Information extracted from interrogations about Saddam Haftar's alleged role in directing the operation has been described by sources as potentially devastating to his father's political position.

The GNU's response was swift and unambiguous. Government sources stated that cooperation with Saddam Haftar had become impossible in light of the evidence that had emerged. This declaration has now undermined not only the Boulos merger plan but also a parallel set of negotiations known as the 4+4 talks, which brought together the four main political institutions in Libya under UN sponsorship. Those talks had produced an agreement in August to hold elections within two years, a breakthrough that had been endorsed by the UN Security Council and represented the first real progress toward democratic legitimacy in over a decade. Walid Ellafi, the GNU's minister for state for political affairs and a strong advocate for elections, emphasized that his government's commitment to the 4+4 process rested on its role as a UN-backed framework designed to produce practical results and institutions whose legitimacy would flow from the will of the people rather than from backroom deals that ignored longstanding grievances.

Ellafi's position reflects a deeper tension within Libya's political landscape. An elite-level agreement between east and west, brokered by Washington, would sidestep the displacement of 9,000 families from Benghazi during the 2014 war and other unresolved violations that have festered for years. The allegations against Saddam Haftar may also trigger internal power struggles within Khalifa Haftar's own family. Saddam has long been positioned as his father's most likely successor, commands the most resources, and enjoys backing from the United Arab Emirates. But his two brothers, Khaled and Belqasim, who are more closely aligned with Egypt, have begun to challenge his dominance. The drone allegations could accelerate that rivalry and further destabilize the eastern power structure at a moment when Libya's entire political future hangs in the balance.