On a Friday morning in mid-October 2022, futures pointed upward as markets weighed a surprising pause in American consumer spending against a run of bank and health-care earnings. Retail sales held flat in September, short of the modest gain economists had hoped for, yet traders chose to lean toward optimism, as if the market were reminding itself that a bruised economy can still find footing. The day sits within a longer correction, a stretch in which every rally must prove it can outlast doubt. Investors, having lived through months of volatility, are now asking whether this tentative lift i
Dow Futures Rise as JPMorgan, UnitedHealth Rally on Earnings Despite Flat September Retail Sales
Not every follow-through holds, so exposure should rise slowly.
Mark
Retail sales came in flat and futures still rose. Why?
Mimi
The report treats it as a morning of mixed signals. Earnings from JPMorgan and UnitedHealth got attention, and Treasury yields eased to 3.88% after topping 4% Thursday.
Luke
Careful, though. The article reports those things happening together but doesn't establish that one caused the other.
Mark
Fair. How did the banks do?
Mimi
Unevenly. JPMorgan beat estimates but pared gains to about 1.5%. Morgan Stanley fell 3%. Wells Fargo rose 1% despite missing.
Luke
Which shows an earnings beat doesn't guarantee a rally. Early moves also can change by the close.
Mark
What is the follow-through day everyone's waiting for?
Mimi
Thursday was Day 1 of a rally attempt, and a follow-through could come as early as Tuesday to confirm an uptrend.
Luke
That's IBD's framework, and the piece itself says not all follow-throughs work. It's a signal, not a forecast.
Mark
And the futures numbers?
Luke
They're overnight readings, and the article warns they don't necessarily carry into the regular session.
O Pulso
- Dow futures jumped about 1.1% before the bell, even as flat retail sales missed the expected 0.2% rise, leaving the mood split between relief and wariness.
- JPMorgan and UnitedHealth surged on strong third-quarter results while Morgan Stanley dropped 3% after weak earnings and sales, dividing the financial sector sharply.
- Kroger's planned purchase of Albertsons sent both grocers tumbling as the market weighed a bold bid to compete with Walmart and Amazon.
- Hot September inflation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4% on Thursday, though it eased back to 3.88% and oil slipped about 2%.
- Investors are bracing for a possible follow-through day as early as Tuesday, the signal that could confirm a fresh uptrend while the market remains in correction.
On a Friday morning in mid-October 2022, futures pointed upward as markets weighed a surprising pause in American consumer spending against a run of bank and health-care earnings. Retail sales held flat in September, short of the modest gain economists had hoped for, yet traders chose to lean toward optimism, as if the market were reminding itself that a bruised economy can still find footing. The day sits within a longer correction, a stretch in which every rally must prove it can outlast doubt. Investors, having lived through months of volatility, are now asking whether this tentative lift is the first note of a new upward chord or merely a passing breath.
Before the opening bell on Friday, October 14, 2022, Dow Jones futures climbed about 1.1%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rising in step. The lift came despite September retail sales arriving flat, falling short of the 0.2% gain forecasters expected. Shoppers were pulling back just as the market was searching for a reason to hope.
Earnings carried much of the day's attention. JPMorgan beat its third-quarter forecasts but trimmed its early gains to about 1.5%, while UnitedHealth climbed on strong results and a confident outlook. Morgan Stanley, however, slid 3% after disappointing earnings and sales, a reminder that even within one sector, fortunes diverge sharply.
Elsewhere, Kroger and Albertsons fell hard after confirming Kroger's plan to buy Albertsons, a deal meant to strengthen its hand against Walmart and Amazon. Bond markets calmed as the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 3.88% after a hot inflation report had pushed it briefly above 4% the day before.
The broader backdrop is a market still in correction. Thursday's sharp reversal, with the Dow recovering from a 1.6% selloff to close up 2.8%, offered a first sign of a new rally attempt. Analysts watching the charts see Tuesday as a possible follow-through day, though they caution that such signals do not always hold. For now, the counsel is patience: watch, prepare, and wait to see whether the rally can prove itself.
Before the opening bell on Friday, October 14, 2022, Dow Jones futures were up about 1.1% above fair value. The S&P 500 futures had gained 1.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.2%. The rise came on a morning when September retail sales were reported flat, short of the Econoday estimate for a 0.2% increase.
Earnings drove much of the day's attention. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all reported, as did UnitedHealth. JPMorgan beat third-quarter expectations but pared its early gain to about 1.5%. UnitedHealth rose 0.5% on strong results and a positive outlook. Citigroup was up less than 1% shortly after its report, and Wells Fargo rose 1% even though it missed earnings estimates. Morgan Stanley fell 3% on weak earnings and sales.
Other corporate news moved individual names. Delta Air Lines climbed more than 2% on an analyst upgrade, following its third-quarter report on Wednesday. Kroger and Albertsons traded sharply lower after the companies confirmed that Kroger would buy Albertsons, a deal aimed at competing better with Walmart and Amazon. Tesla was up more than 1%, and Apple and Microsoft were modestly higher ahead of the open.
In other markets, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.88%, after briefly jumping above 4% on Thursday. That jump followed a hot inflation reading: prices rose 0.4% in September, accelerating from 0.1% in August. U.S. oil fell about 2%, putting West Texas Intermediate futures below $88 a barrel and threatening to erase much of Thursday's rebound. Overnight moves in futures, as the report notes, don't necessarily carry into the regular session.
Thursday's session explains some of the mood. The Dow sold off as much as 1.6% before closing up 2.8%. The Nasdaq composite reversed an early plunge of more than 3% into a 2.2% gain, its best comeback since February 24, per Dow Jones Market Data. Apple rose 3.4% and Microsoft 3.8%. Even so, Apple remains about 22% below its 52-week high and Microsoft about 33% below. Tesla rose 2.1% Thursday but sits near its lowest level since early July, about 47% off its high. It reports October 19, with analysts expecting an adjusted $1.03 per share on $22.4 billion in sales.
IBD treats Thursday as Day 1 of a new rally attempt, with the market still in correction. A follow-through day, which confirms a new uptrend, could come as early as Tuesday. Not every follow-through holds, so IBD advises raising exposure slowly while the uptrend proves itself.
The stocks it flags are mostly energy and health care. Chevron rose nearly 5% Thursday off its 50-day line and sits below a 182.50 buy point, with earnings October 28. Merck is nearing a 93.12 buy point, reporting October 27. Cardinal Health has a 72.38 buy point and reports November 4. ConocoPhillips regained a 118.49 buy point after a 5.5% jump and reports November 3. Denbury, which broke out on reports that Exxon Mobil is weighing a takeover, is in a chase zone up to 98.75. Vertex has a 306.05 buy point and reports October 27.
For now, the advice is patience: sit out, build watchlists, and see whether Tuesday brings the follow-through.
Citações Notáveis
With the market in correction mode, investors should track companies that beat earnings handily and draw strong upside reactions.— IBD's The Big Picture column (paraphrased)
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