In a season when every new study is read for signs of hope, the Philippine Department of Health chose restraint. A Brazilian preprint, not yet examined by other experts, suggested that regions hit by dengue outbreaks had fewer and slower-growing COVID-19 cases, and that dengue exposure, or a future dengue vaccine, might offer some shield against the coronavirus. Health officials in Metro Manila responded that an idea can be promising without yet being proven, and that a pattern in regional numbers is not the same as a verified truth. The matter now rests where careful science usually does: as
DOH Urges Caution on Preprint Study Linking Dengue Exposure to Possible COVID-19 Immunity
For now, the Brazilian finding remains a hypothesis.
Mark
Why did the DOH feel the need to respond to a preprint at all?
Mimi
Because the idea is appealing and travels fast. Dengue is familiar in the Philippines, and a claim that it might offer some protection against COVID-19 could easily be taken as good news.
Mark
What exactly did the Brazilian researchers find?
Mimi
That areas with dengue outbreaks between January 2019 and July 2020 reported lower coronavirus case rates and slower infection growth.
Luke
Worth noting that's a pattern across areas, not proof that any person's dengue exposure protected them. The reporting doesn't say how the researchers handled other explanations.
Mimi
Right, and the authors themselves said "if proven correct." That's conditional language.
Mark
And Vergeire's objection?
Mimi
The paper hasn't been peer reviewed. She said that means the results can't be called valid and accurate yet.
Luke
She isn't saying it's wrong, either. Nothing in the reporting shows the DOH found a flaw. It's an unverified claim.
Mark
What would change that?
Mimi
Similar studies establishing a link between high dengue cases and lower infection and death rates.
Luke
And we don't know if anyone is running them. The piece doesn't say.
Il Polso
- A preprint from Brazil has set off hope that dengue exposure might shield people from COVID-19, and the claim is spreading faster than its evidence.
- Health spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire pushed back at a Metro Manila briefing, warning Filipinos not to treat an unreviewed paper as settled fact.
- The study's authors point to a possible benefit from dengue infection or a future dengue vaccine, but only if the hypothesis holds up under scrutiny.
- Officials are steering toward peer review and independent studies that could confirm or dismiss any link between dengue outbreaks and lower COVID-19 rates.
- For now the department has changed no guidance, and the finding remains a hypothesis waiting for proof.
In a season when every new study is read for signs of hope, the Philippine Department of Health chose restraint. A Brazilian preprint, not yet examined by other experts, suggested that regions hit by dengue outbreaks had fewer and slower-growing COVID-19 cases, and that dengue exposure, or a future dengue vaccine, might offer some shield against the coronavirus. Health officials in Metro Manila responded that an idea can be promising without yet being proven, and that a pattern in regional numbers is not the same as a verified truth. The matter now rests where careful science usually does: as a question awaiting peer review and the confirmation of other researchers.
On Saturday, September 26, at a briefing in Metro Manila, Health spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire was asked about a new idea gaining attention: that people exposed to dengue might carry some protection against the coronavirus. Her answer was a call for patience.
The research came from Brazil and found that areas with dengue outbreaks between January 2019 and July 2020 reported lower COVID-19 case rates and slower infection growth than areas without them. The authors posted the paper on the preprint portal medRxiv on September 21, and suggested that dengue infection, or an effective and safe dengue vaccine, could offer some immunological protection against SARS-CoV-2 before a coronavirus vaccine arrives.
Vergeire's concern was not with the idea but with the paper's standing. It has not been peer reviewed, and until other experts vet it, she said, its results cannot be considered valid. Speaking in Filipino, she urged Filipinos to be careful with articles like this one and said far more evidence is needed before the hypothesis can be called true. Similar studies would have to confirm whether a real link exists between high dengue case numbers and lower rates of coronavirus infection and death.
The department announced no change in guidance. For now the Brazilian finding remains a hypothesis, and what to watch is whether it passes peer review and whether other research teams reach comparable results.
On Saturday, September 26, at a briefing in Metro Manila, Health spokesperson Maria Rosario Vergeire was asked about a new piece of research that had begun circulating: a suggestion that people exposed to dengue might carry some protection against the coronavirus. Her answer was a request for restraint.
The research came from Brazil. According to the study, areas that had dengue fever outbreaks between January 2019 and July 2020 reported lower coronavirus case rates and slower growth in infections than areas that did not. The authors posted their paper on the preprint portal medRxiv on September 21.
The researchers were careful about how they framed the finding, but they did point toward a possible payoff. If the hypothesis proved correct, they wrote, dengue infection, or immunization with an effective and safe dengue vaccine, could produce some level of immunological protection against SARS-CoV-2 before a vaccine for the coronavirus becomes available.
Vergeire's concern was with the status of the paper rather than the idea itself. The study has not undergone peer review, the process by which other experts vet research findings before they are formally accepted. Until that happens, she said, its results cannot be considered valid and accurate.
Speaking in Filipino, she told reporters the department wanted to remind Filipinos to be careful with articles like this one. In her words, enough evidence is needed before anyone can say the hypothesis is actually true.
She also described what that evidence would look like. Similar studies would need to be carried out to establish whether a link really exists between high numbers of dengue cases and lower rates of coronavirus infection and death. A single analysis of regional case patterns, in other words, would not settle the matter.
The Department of Health did not announce any change in guidance in response to the paper. For now, the Brazilian finding remains a hypothesis. What to watch is whether the work is peer reviewed and whether other research teams produce comparable results.
Citazioni salienti
We need enough evidence to say the hypothesis is indeed true.— Maria Rosario Vergeire, DOH spokesperson (translated from Filipino)
If proven correct, dengue infection or an effective, safe dengue vaccine could produce some level of immunological protection against SARS-CoV-2.— Brazilian researchers, medRxiv preprint (paraphrased)
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