In the Philippines, a weakening peso has become the quiet thief of relief — even as global oil prices fell last week, Filipino commuters, farmers, and truckers will face higher diesel costs come June 28, because currency depreciation erased what crude markets offered. Since the year began, diesel in the National Capital Region has risen by over forty-four pesos per liter, a cumulative burden that is reshaping livelihoods across transport, agriculture, and fisheries. The nation now stands at a crossroads between short-term relief measures and longer-term questions about energy sovereignty — que
Diesel prices set to rise again as peso weakens; gasoline may see minimal cut
Transport, farming, and fisheries sectors experiencing significant economic hardship from sustained fuel price increases.
A weaker peso erases the benefit of falling oil prices
Mark
So the peso got weaker, and that's making diesel more expensive even though oil prices fell globally. How does that math work?
Mimi
When you import oil priced in dollars, a weaker peso means you need more pesos to buy the same barrel. So even if the barrel costs less in dollars, it costs more in pesos. That's the squeeze.
Luke
Right, but I want to be clear on the numbers. The source says oil fell about three dollars per barrel, and the peso moved from roughly 52.93 to 54.98 to the dollar over a week or so. We don't have the exact calculation of which effect is bigger—we're just told the peso effect won out.
Mark
And this has been happening for months, not just this week?
Mimi
Since the start of the year, diesel is up P44.25 per liter in the NCR. Gasoline up P29.50. That's cumulative. Last week alone was P3.10 for diesel.
Luke
Three weeks in a row of increases, according to the source. But we should note the source material doesn't give us the total number of price hikes since January—just the year-to-date cumulative number and the most recent week.
Mark
Who's hurting most?
Mimi
Transport operators, farmers, fisheries workers. They don't have the margin to absorb this. A trucker's fuel cost is a direct line item in what he charges.
Luke
One congressman said that. Ungab. He also said the government should study redirecting budget to subsidies rather than suspending fuel taxes. That's a policy position, not a fact about who's actually hurting—though it's reasonable inference.
Mark
Is there any relief coming?
Mimi
Marcos is apparently open to buying Russian oil. That's being framed as energy security.
Luke
That's what Carlos said he's open to. We don't have confirmation from Marcos himself, and we don't know if it would actually happen or when. It's a stated openness, not a plan.
O Pulso
- Diesel prices are set to climb another P1.10 to P1.40 per liter next week, even as global crude prices fell — because the peso sinking to P54.98 per dollar swallowed any consumer benefit whole.
- The year-to-date toll is staggering: gasoline up P29.50 per liter, diesel up P44.25, and kerosene up P39.65 in the National Capital Region since January 2022 alone.
- Transport operators, farmers, and fisherfolk — sectors with the thinnest margins — are absorbing the sharpest pain, with no automatic buffer against sustained price shocks.
- Government voices are divided on the path forward: one lawmaker urges direct cash subsidies while warning against gutting excise tax revenues that fund social programs.
- The incoming Marcos administration is signaling a willingness to purchase Russian oil, framing energy security as a reason to step outside Western-aligned geopolitical norms.
In the Philippines, a weakening peso has become the quiet thief of relief — even as global oil prices fell last week, Filipino commuters, farmers, and truckers will face higher diesel costs come June 28, because currency depreciation erased what crude markets offered. Since the year began, diesel in the National Capital Region has risen by over forty-four pesos per liter, a cumulative burden that is reshaping livelihoods across transport, agriculture, and fisheries. The nation now stands at a crossroads between short-term relief measures and longer-term questions about energy sovereignty — questions that may lead Manila toward Moscow.
The Philippine peso's continued slide against the dollar is about to cancel out what should have been good news for Filipino consumers. Global oil prices fell by roughly three dollars per barrel last week on fears that US interest rate hikes would cool economic growth — a drop that, under normal conditions, would have translated into cheaper fuel at the pump. Instead, the peso's depreciation to around P54.98 per dollar erased those gains entirely. Department of Energy official Rino Abad said plainly that prices would have fallen next week were it not for the currency's weakness.
The coming increase — diesel expected to rise P1.10 to P1.40 per liter starting June 28, with gasoline seeing only a negligible cut if any — arrives on top of an already punishing year. Since January 2022, gasoline in Metro Manila has risen P29.50 per liter in total, diesel by P44.25, and kerosene by P39.65. The June 21 round alone added eighty centavos to gasoline, P3.10 to diesel, and P1.70 to kerosene — the third straight week of increases.
The sectors feeling it most acutely have the least room to absorb it. Deputy Speaker Isidro Ungab of Davao City called on the government to redirect budget funds into direct cash assistance for transport operators, farmers, and fisherfolk, while cautioning against suspending fuel excise taxes, which he argued are essential to funding social programs in times of crisis. He expressed support for incoming President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s plans to provide targeted relief.
The incoming administration is also looking further afield for solutions. Marcos's designated National Security Adviser, Clarita Carlos, confirmed Friday that the president-elect is open to buying oil from Russia — a country under Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine — framing the move as a matter of energy security rather than geopolitical alignment. The proposal reflects how urgently rising fuel costs are forcing the Philippines to reconsider its options, both at home and on the world stage.
The Philippine peso's slide against the dollar is about to make diesel more expensive for commuters, truckers, and farmers already reeling from months of fuel price increases. Industry analysts expect diesel to jump between P1.10 and P1.40 per liter in the week starting June 28, while gasoline may see only a token cut of five to twenty centavos per liter—if it falls at all.
The culprit is currency movement, not crude oil scarcity. Global oil prices actually declined by about three dollars per barrel last week, driven by concerns that US interest rate hikes would slow economic growth. Under normal circumstances, that would mean cheaper fuel at Philippine pumps. Instead, the peso weakened to roughly 54.98 to the dollar by Friday, erasing any benefit consumers might have gained. Rino Abad, the Department of Energy's director for oil industry management, put it plainly: pump prices would have dropped next week if not for the currency depreciation. "Unfortunately, instead of a rollback, there will be a slight increase due to the impact of the softening of the peso against the dollar," he said.
This marks the continuation of a brutal trend. On June 21, fuel companies raised gasoline by eighty centavos per liter, diesel by P3.10, and kerosene by P1.70—the third consecutive week of increases. Since the start of 2022, gasoline prices in the National Capital Region have climbed P29.50 per liter overall, diesel by P44.25 per liter, and kerosene by P39.65 per liter. A week earlier, from June 14 to June 20, gasoline ranged from P75.15 to P98.10 per liter depending on location, diesel from P77.40 to P94.90, and kerosene from P87.94 to P97.34.
Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi acknowledged the squeeze, noting that in just four days the peso's weakness had added roughly a peso per liter to diesel and kerosene costs. The currency depreciation in a single week—from P52.93 to P53.36 per dollar between June 13 and June 20—was enough to wipe out the benefit of falling international oil prices.
The pain is sharpest in sectors with no cushion. Deputy Speaker Isidro Ungab of Davao City pointed out that transport operators, farmers, and fisheries workers are absorbing the worst of it. He called on the government to study redirecting budget from some projects into direct cash assistance for these groups. Ungab also cautioned against suspending fuel excise taxes, arguing the government needs that revenue to fund social programs during crises. He expressed support for incoming President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s plan to provide direct aid to offset the impact of sustained price hikes.
Meanwhile, the incoming administration is exploring unconventional solutions. Clarita Carlos, Marcos's designated National Security Adviser, said Friday that the president-elect is open to purchasing oil from Russia, which faces Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Carlos framed it as an energy security matter, suggesting Filipinos need to move beyond what she called an anti-Russia and pro-US mindset. The proposal signals how far the government may be willing to reach as fuel costs continue to reshape household budgets and business operations across the country.
Citações Notáveis
Instead of a rollback, there will be a slight increase due to the impact of the softening of the peso against the dollar.— Rino Abad, Department of Energy director for oil industry management
The ones suffering the most are those in the transport, farming, and fisheries sectors.— Deputy Speaker Isidro Ungab
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Economy & Finance