Democrats' identity crisis: a party divided over socialism, Israel and the fight with its own establishment

James Stevens is 24, a film student from Georgia, and he calls himself a democratic socialist. Last year he flew to New York City to canvass for Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign. He says he was watching the left-wing internet commentator Hasan Piker six years ago, before Piker became relevant in politics. His mother, Tamara, 56, is also a loyal Democrat, but she came to the party differently: she grew up Republican and switched after watching Barack Obama on Oprah. Today she champions reproductive rights, attends campaign rallies and donates to local candidates.

Both want Democrats to win control of Congress in next Tuesday's midterms. They do not agree on what the party should be. James says he is sick of Democrats compromising with Republican policies that do not help a large group of people, and he wants a bold vision built on policies associated with the Democratic Socialists of America: anti-Zionism, getting corporate money out of politics, and government-run free healthcare.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Democrats are well placed to take the House and possibly the Senate. President Donald Trump's approval rating is at a record low for a president entering a midterm, comparable to George W Bush's in 2006. The Iran war is not over and is unpopular with voters, and it has pushed up gas prices at a time when people already worry about the cost of living. In 18 of the last 20 midterms, the party in power lost House seats.

Yet the Democratic Party is itself unpopular. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Americans viewing it as only marginally better than the Republicans, and recent polls show a net unfavourable rating. Analysts say that if Republicans defy the pattern, a major reason will be that a majority of voters dislike the Democratic brand too. Ruy Teixeira of the American Enterprise Institute says the party's identity is cloudy, defined mostly by reaction to the Trump administration, with many factions beneath that. Part of the reason the fight is surfacing now, the BBC's reporter notes, is that Democrats never had it in 2024, when Joe Biden left the race months before the election and Kamala Harris became the nominee.

The divide is partly moderates against the left, and partly institutionalists against those who want to upend the institution. Usamah Andrabi of the Justice Democrats, formed in 2017 to back members of "the Squad" such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, says the people who led Democrats into this mess will not lead them out. He argues the affordability crisis cannot be solved by tinkering, and favours universal healthcare and childcare, funded partly by cutting the Pentagon budget.

Healthcare is likely a main battleground, says Carrie Dann of the Cook Political Report. Several candidates have proposed lowering out-of-pocket costs for the already insured, while another flank wants Medicare for All. Recent polling suggests most Democrats favour it and most Republicans oppose it. Neera Tanden, now CEO of the Center for American Progress, says people want universal healthcare and also want to keep their insurance. Costs for premiums, hospitals and prescription drugs have risen faster than inflation. Tamara and James agree on this one.

Israel is where they do not. Tamara calls herself a Zionist, and says her kids get mad at her for it. Dann says primary voters wanted candidates willing to take on the establishment as well as Trump, citing Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed, a fierce critic of Israel's actions in Gaza, won the primary over establishment objections. Samraa Luqman, an Arab-American activist who voted for Trump in 2024 over Gaza, says it is now "Gaza or bust". Zach Nessel, a self-described proud Zionist, worries about becoming politically homeless, saying some in the party think Zionists should be removed. Support for Israel became a litmus test in some primaries, fuelling resistance to AIPAC.

Dann says El-Sayed's race is itself a test: a win would be a model for the left, a loss ammunition for centrists. Jim Kessler of Third Way argues that if Democrats take the Senate, it will be through centrists such as Roy Cooper, Mary Peltola, James Talarico, Josh Turek and Adam Hamilton. Tanden notes that DSA supporters skew college-educated, and that working-class voters are fairly moderate on crime and immigration. A Democratic majority would still likely bring more of the party's loudest left-wing voices into Congress, and how El-Sayed fares will help shape the 2028 positioning.