Democrats Eye a Texas Breakthrough as Talarico Makes Senate Race a Test of Party Fortunes

On Tuesday night in Lubbock, the line to get into the Fiesta Center wrapped around the building and ran down the parking lot to a busy road. The draw was James Talarico, the 37-year-old Democratic nominee for US Senate in Texas, a softly spoken former teacher who studied to be a Christian minister. Lubbock is a dusty plains town of about 250,000 that voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump two years ago, and a major Democrat rarely shows up there on the eve of an election. An estimated 3,000 people packed the hall, with another thousand listening on speakers outside.

The race is the most expensive Senate contest in US history, with spending above half a billion dollars. It could help decide which party controls Congress next year, but both sides see more at stake. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas for more than three decades, and the party has not held a Texas Senate seat since 1988. Polls now suggest Talarico has a slim but stable lead over Republican Ken Paxton. Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist, said a Democratic win would cause soul searching and psychological damage to the GOP in Texas and nationally.

Republicans are saying as much themselves. A few miles from Talarico's rally, Trump appeared with Paxton in a venue twice the size and told the crowd that a big turnout would bring a tremendous win. Senator Ted Cruz said on his podcast Friday that Texas could be lost, and that Democrats are massively out-turning Republicans. Don Huffines, a candidate for state chief financial officer, posted on X that losing Texas means losing the USA. Party leaders fear a Talarico victory would draw stronger, better-funded Democratic candidates into statewide races, a snowball like the one seen in Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.

Steinhauser called the situation a perfect storm, one Trump helped create. Voters are frustrated by high prices, including petrol, and largely blame Trump's tariffs and the Iran war. Corruption worries are growing, and a recent Cook Political Report poll found many Democrats, independents and Republicans blaming greedy billionaires and corporations, and politicians seeking personal gain. In Texas, polling and special elections suggest Hispanic voters, nearly a third of the population and many of whom swung to Trump in 2024, have soured on immigration enforcement. They are voting early in historically large numbers. Data centre construction has also drawn criticism in conservative rural areas, and Governor Greg Abbott, in his own tight re-election race, announced a one-year moratorium on AI construction.

Paxton, 63, arrives with baggage. He beat 74-year-old Senator John Cornyn in a bitter primary run-off after portraying him as too old and out of touch, helped by a Trump endorsement days before the vote. Paxton faced a 2015 federal securities fraud indictment that was later dropped, and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House on corruption, bribery and abuse of power charges. The Texas Senate acquitted him after Trump pressured state Republican leaders. He has critics inside his own party, and he has raised little money himself.

Talarico beat Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary and has held his lead through a barrage of negative advertising. Elon Musk has put more than $170m into the race, and Trump's MAGA Inc. committee another $40m. The ads, which have reached national sports broadcasts of Texas teams, attack his past comments supporting transgender people, his description of radicalised white men as a domestic terrorism threat, and his criticism of the fossil fuel and beef industries. Talarico says some remarks were taken out of context, and others missed the mark, were deliberately provocative or were cringy. He has raised more than $140m, including a three-month record for a Senate candidate.

His pitch mixes populism and Texas identity. He attacks the conservative establishment, big money and corruption, and promises a comprehensive anti-corruption agenda. His closing slogan, clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose, comes from Friday Night Lights, and he cites his eight generations in Texas and his grandfather, a Southern Baptist preacher. In Lubbock he cast himself as David against Goliath. Andrew Robinson, a 26-year-old Texas Tech student, said a win would give him a reason to stay in the state. In Amarillo, retired teacher Terri Mills said she has had her hopes up before but feels this time is a little different.

Caution is warranted. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke set fundraising records and drew national attention, then lost to Cruz by just over 2%. Talarico's lead sits near the margin of error in most polls, and late Republican appeals and Trump's repeated visits could lift election-day turnout enough to erase Democratic early-vote gains.