California Democrats avoid Republican sweep in primary race

California's open primary system delivered an outcome that defied recent polling fears. With roughly 58 percent of votes counted on Tuesday evening, Xavier Becerra, the former health secretary under President Biden, held a narrow lead over Republican television commentator Steve Hilton in the race to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom. Becerra had accumulated just over one million votes, running at 25.4 percent, while Hilton led with 27.8 percent—a margin of nearly 120,000 votes that positioned both men to advance to November's general election.

What made this outcome significant was what it prevented. California's primary system allows all voters—Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike—to cast ballots in the same contest, with the top two finishers advancing regardless of party affiliation. Earlier polling had suggested a genuine possibility that two Republicans could occupy both spots on the November ballot, a scenario that would have been extraordinary in a state that has leaned heavily Democratic for more than a decade. The fragmented Democratic field, with multiple candidates splitting the party's vote, had created an opening for that outcome.

Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host and onetime adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, had been positioned as the more moderate Republican option. But the real threat to a Democratic presence in the general election came from Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff and a prominent figure in the MAGA movement, who had been polling competitively. With votes still being tallied, Bianco had fallen to fourth place with approximately 11 percent, effectively removing the possibility of an all-Republican general election matchup.

Tom Steyer, the billionaire Democrat who had mounted his own presidential campaign years earlier, finished third with 19.6 percent of the vote, demonstrating the degree to which Democratic support had dispersed across multiple candidates. That fragmentation had been the source of genuine concern for party strategists in the weeks before the election.

Becerra, who previously served as California's attorney general before joining the Biden administration, would make history if he prevails in November. He would become the state's first Latino governor. Hilton, born in Britain and naturalized as a U.S. citizen in 2021, carries the backing of President Donald Trump and represents a different ideological direction for the state.

California's next governor will inherit one of the world's largest economies but will immediately confront some of the state's most intractable problems: a severe water shortage, a cost-of-living crisis that has made housing and basic expenses unaffordable for millions, and a homelessness crisis that has become visible in nearly every major city. The state has not elected a Republican to statewide office since Arnold Schwarzenegger's governorship ended in January 2011.

Because California relies heavily on mail-in voting, final results may not be certified for roughly a week. The state's election officials have cautioned that millions of ballots sent through the postal system remain uncounted, meaning the margins could shift before a final tally is announced.