On a late November day in 2020, the meteorological authorities of India watched a depression over the Bay of Bengal gather strength and take the name Nivar, a reminder of how quickly the sea can turn a quiet swell into a force that reaches people's doorsteps. Four hundred and ten kilometres off Puducherry, the storm was still far enough to be only a forecast, yet near enough that families in low-lying villages and the fishing communities of the coast were already being asked to leave what they could not protect. It was bound for the stretch of shore between Karaikal and Mamallapuram, where the
Deep Depression Over Bay of Bengal Becomes Cyclonic Storm Nivar, Headed for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry
People in low-lying areas are being moved to safe shelters, and fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea.
A tidal wave of about one metre is very likely to flood low-lying areas
Mark
So what actually changed on Tuesday?
Mimi
A deep depression became a named cyclonic storm, Nivar. It was about 410 km off Puducherry, and the Met department expects it to cross the coast on November 25 evening.
Mark
How strong is it expected to be?
Mimi
A severe cyclonic storm at landfall, with winds of 100 to 110 km per hour, gusting to 120.
Luke
Worth noting that's a forecast. Right now the reported gale winds are 65 to 75 kmph, gusting to 85. The landfall strength depends on it intensifying as predicted.
Mark
And the rain?
Mimi
Heavy to very heavy at a few places on Wednesday, extremely heavy at isolated places, across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Mark
What is being done on the ground?
Mimi
Reservoirs like Chembarambakkam are under constant watch, people in low-lying areas are going to shelters, and fishermen are told to stay off the sea.
Luke
The report doesn't say how many people are being moved or how full the reservoirs are. Those numbers are unknown from this account.
Mark
What's the main hazard on the coast?
Mimi
A tidal wave of about one metre, very likely to flood low-lying areas in the northern coastal districts and Puducherry.
Luke
Again, that's the department's expectation, and the exact landfall point between Karaikal and Mamallapuram could still shift.
Der Puls
- A cyclonic storm named Nivar, forming over the Bay of Bengal, is strengthening and bearing down on the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.
- Gale winds and rough to very rough seas are already lashing the shoreline, while heavy to very heavy rain begins to soak the region.
- Authorities are moving residents of low-lying areas into safe shelters and warning fishermen to keep their boats ashore.
- Reservoirs such as Chembarambakkam are under constant watch, and landfall is expected on the evening of November 25 with winds up to 110 km/h and one-metre tidal waves.
On a late November day in 2020, the meteorological authorities of India watched a depression over the Bay of Bengal gather strength and take the name Nivar, a reminder of how quickly the sea can turn a quiet swell into a force that reaches people's doorsteps. Four hundred and ten kilometres off Puducherry, the storm was still far enough to be only a forecast, yet near enough that families in low-lying villages and the fishing communities of the coast were already being asked to leave what they could not protect. It was bound for the stretch of shore between Karaikal and Mamallapuram, where the land has long learned to brace against such visitors. What the bulletins offered was not certainty but a careful watch, the kind that asks ordinary people to act on probabilities before the wind arrives.
On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, the Met department announced that a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal had grown into a cyclonic storm, and named it Nivar. At the time, it sat about 410 km off Puducherry and 450 km from Chennai, moving steadily west-northwestwards across the southwest Bay of Bengal.
The forecasters expect it to strengthen further, likely becoming a severe cyclonic storm within a day. Landfall is expected on the evening of November 25 along the coast between Karaikal and Mamallapuram, with winds of 100 to 110 km/h, gusting to 120 km/h.
The signs were already visible. Gale winds were sweeping the waters, and the seas along the coasts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry were turning rough. A tidal wave of about one metre threatened to flood low-lying northern districts and Puducherry, while rain was expected to fall heavily across the region.
On the ground, people in vulnerable areas were being moved to safe shelters, and fishermen had been told to stay off the sea. Officials kept a close eye on the reservoirs, including Chembarambakkam. The coming hours will show whether the storm holds its strength and whether it comes ashore where the forecast says it will.
On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, the Met department announced that the deep depression over the Bay of Bengal had strengthened into a cyclonic storm. It is named Nivar. At the time of the bulletin, the system lay about 410 km off Puducherry and 450 km from Chennai, having moved west-northwestwards across the southwest Bay of Bengal.
The department expects it to grow stronger still. Within the next 24 hours, Nivar is very likely to become a severe cyclonic storm. The forecast track has it continuing west-northwestwards for the next 12 hours before turning northwestwards.
Landfall is expected on the evening of November 25, on the coast between Karaikal and Mamallapuram, across Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The bulletin said the storm would be severe at that point, with wind speeds of 100 to 110 km per hour, gusting to 120 kmph.
Conditions were already deteriorating. Gale winds of 65 to 75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, were blowing over the southwest Bay of Bengal. Sea conditions along the coasts of the state and the union territory were rough to very rough. The department also warned that a tidal wave of about one metre is very likely to flood low-lying areas in the northern coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and in Puducherry.
Rain had been falling intermittently in several parts of the state and the union territory. For Wednesday, the department said rainfall was very likely at most places in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. It forecast heavy to very heavy showers at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places.
Authorities said reservoirs, including Chembarambakkam, were under constant watch. People in low-lying areas were being moved to safe shelters. Fishermen had already been advised not to go to sea.
What to watch next is the storm's intensity as it nears the coast, and whether the forecast landfall stretch between Karaikal and Mamallapuram holds through Wednesday evening.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Nivar is very likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm and cross the coast between Karaikal and Mamallapuram on November 25 evening.— Met department bulletin
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