On a Saturday in early November, a sudden torrent of rain fell on Erbil in northern Iraq, far heavier than anyone had anticipated, and within hours the streets had become rivers. Two people lost their lives and many homes and businesses were badly damaged, a reminder of how quickly a forecast can be outrun by the sky. Even as storms rolled across the wider region, including neighbouring Iran, the weather that day seemed to gather its fiercest force over this one city. Elsewhere, other systems were already on their way, reminding us that the atmosphere keeps its own calendar, indifferent to how
Deadly flash floods hit Erbil as storms sweep Iraq and Iran, with rainfall well above forecast
Two people were killed and homes and businesses were extensively damaged in flash floods in Erbil.
Eighty millimetres fell where thirty had been forecast.
Mark
Why does the Erbil forecast miss matter so much?
Mimi
Because 80mm against 30mm is more than double what people were told to expect. Streets filled quickly, and homes and businesses took extensive damage.
Mark
Two people died. Do we know who they were?
Luke
No. The reporting gives the number and nothing more about the circumstances.
Mark
And the 80mm figure, is that firm?
Luke
It's described as an estimate. The forecast of 30mm is the comparison, but we don't know who measured the rainfall or how.
Mark
What about Iran?
Mimi
Storms hit there too, but the reporting names no specific damage or casualties.
Luke
Right, so I'd be careful about suggesting Iran suffered comparably. That isn't established.
Mark
The piece moves on to Portugal, Japan and Peru. Is there a link?
Mimi
It's a roundup of weather across regions. Bruna is coming for Portugal this week, Hokkaido is in a cold snap, and Peru is unusually warm under El Niño.
Luke
Worth noting the source doesn't say these events are connected to the Erbil floods. They sit side by side, nothing more.
El Pulso
- A forecast of 30mm of rain was overtaken by an estimated 80mm, leaving the city little time to brace.
- Streets filled with water within a short window, turning ordinary roads into hazards overnight.
- Two people were killed and homes and businesses were extensively damaged in Erbil.
- Severe thunderstorms swept the wider region, including Iran, while Storm Bruna gathers toward Portugal later this week.
On a Saturday in early November, a sudden torrent of rain fell on Erbil in northern Iraq, far heavier than anyone had anticipated, and within hours the streets had become rivers. Two people lost their lives and many homes and businesses were badly damaged, a reminder of how quickly a forecast can be outrun by the sky. Even as storms rolled across the wider region, including neighbouring Iran, the weather that day seemed to gather its fiercest force over this one city. Elsewhere, other systems were already on their way, reminding us that the atmosphere keeps its own calendar, indifferent to how prepared we believe ourselves to be.
On Saturday, torrential rain fell on Erbil in northern Iraq over a short span of time, and the city's streets filled with water faster than anyone could respond. Severe thunderstorms were sweeping the wider region, including neighbouring Iran, but Erbil bore the worst of it. Homes and businesses were extensively damaged, and two people were killed.
What stands out most is the gap between expectation and reality. The forecast called for about 30mm of rain; an estimated 80mm arrived instead, more than double, in a short window. That mismatch explains why the streets were overwhelmed so quickly.
The available reporting remains thin on the details of the deaths and the full scale of the losses, and the storms in Iran are noted without any described impact. What is clear is the human cost in Erbil: two lives lost and a community left to count the damage.
Elsewhere, weather systems were gathering. Storm Bruna is forecast to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Portugal this week, with totals that could reach 200mm by the end of the week.
On Saturday, torrential rain fell on Erbil in northern Iraq over a short span of time, and the city's streets filled with water. Severe thunderstorms were sweeping the wider region that day, including neighbouring Iran, but Erbil was singled out as particularly badly hit. Homes and businesses suffered extensive damage, and two people were killed.
The gap between what was expected and what arrived is a central part of the story. An estimated 80mm of rain fell on the city, against a forecast of 30mm. That is well over double the predicted amount, delivered in a short window, which helps explain why streets were overwhelmed so quickly.
The reporting available is brief on the details of the two deaths and on the scale of the damage beyond the description of extensive harm to homes and businesses. The figure of 80mm is given as an estimate, and no further breakdown of casualties or losses is provided. The storms in Iran are noted, but no specific impacts there are described.
Elsewhere, other weather systems were gathering. In Europe, Storm Bruna is forecast to bring strong winds to Portugal this week, especially along the west coast. Gusts are expected to reach 50mph (80km/h), with heavy rain and thunderstorms, and total rainfall could reach 200mm by the end of the week. The storm has already reached the Canary Islands, where Tenerife recorded a gust of 80mph on Saturday night.
In Japan, the end of last week was cold and snowy, and more snow is expected in Hokkaido and parts of the mountains on the main island of Honshu. Temperatures are forecast to drop below the seasonal average early this week. Sapporo, the capital of Hokkaido prefecture, could be as much as 10C below average. Daytime highs there are likely to be about 4-6C on Monday and Wednesday, and about 0C on Tuesday. Overnight lows could reach -6C by Wednesday, with -8C possible in other western parts of Hokkaido on Tuesday.
Ski resorts are preparing for visitors after snow began falling on Friday. Totals of 30-50cm are expected around Kiroro and Niseko, and about 20-30cm in Furano, Rusutsu and Sapporo. Other resorts could see up to 20cm by Wednesday. Strong winds came with the snow on Friday and over the weekend, with gusts of about 75mph at Kiroro and Niseko.
In South America, a strong El Niño has pushed sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific about 3.5C above the climatological average at their peak in late October. Peru has consequently seen air temperatures 5-10C above the seasonal average, and the unusually warm conditions are expected to continue into next week.
For now, the next markers are Storm Bruna's arrival in Portugal later this week and the cold spell in Hokkaido through Wednesday.
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