Castillo commanded 59 percent in the center, 54 in the south
En las semanas previas a la segunda vuelta presidencial peruana del 6 de junio de 2021, una encuesta filtrada de Datum reveló a Pedro Castillo con una ventaja de quince puntos sobre Keiko Fujimori, reflejando no solo preferencias electorales sino también las profundas fracturas geográficas y sociales de un país que, en su año bicentenario, se debate entre visiones opuestas de sí mismo. La elección, más que un duelo entre dos candidatos, se perfila como una pregunta colectiva sobre la identidad y el rumbo de una nación al umbral de su tercer siglo de vida.
- Castillo supera a Fujimori por quince puntos en una encuesta filtrada, generando una sacudida en el tablero político a pocas semanas de la segunda vuelta.
- Las brechas regionales son abismales: en el centro y el sur del país, Castillo aplasta a Fujimori con ventajas de hasta 49 puntos, evidenciando un Perú profundamente dividido.
- Un tercio del electorado permanece fuera del juego —18% indeciso y 15% dispuesto a votar en blanco o nulo— dejando abierta una franja de incertidumbre que ambas campañas deberán disputar.
- La campaña entra en su fase decisiva con Fujimori buscando revertir un déficit severo, especialmente en regiones donde su presencia es casi marginal.
- El 28 de julio, fecha de la toma de mando, coincide con el inicio del bicentenario peruano, cargando al resultado electoral con un peso simbólico que trasciende la política ordinaria.
Una encuesta filtrada de Datum, divulgada a fines de abril, mostró a Pedro Castillo entrando a la segunda vuelta presidencial con una ventaja contundente: 41 por ciento frente al 26 por ciento de Keiko Fujimori. El sondeo, realizado mientras ambos candidatos preparaban su enfrentamiento del 6 de junio, confirmaba el impulso del candidato de izquierda tras haber encabezado la primera vuelta del 11 de abril con el 19 por ciento de los votos nacionales, contra el 13 por ciento de Fujimori.
La geografía del apoyo reveló un país partido en dos. En las regiones centrales, Castillo alcanzaba el 59 por ciento frente a apenas el 10 por ciento de su rival; en el sur, el 54 frente al 17. Solo en el norte la distancia se acortaba, aunque Castillo seguía al frente con 40 por ciento contra 27. El mapa sugería que la fuerza del candidato de Peru Libre residía precisamente en los territorios más alejados de Lima, donde Fujimori esperaba encontrar mayor receptividad.
No todo estaba definido: el 18 por ciento de los encuestados aún no había tomado una decisión, y otro 15 por ciento anticipaba votar en blanco o nulo, expresando así un rechazo a ambas opciones. Ese tercio del electorado representaba el margen de maniobra que quedaba antes del cierre de campaña.
El ganador asumiría la presidencia el 28 de julio de 2021, fecha que no era solo protocolar: marcaba el inicio del bicentenario de la independencia peruana. La segunda vuelta, entonces, era también una pregunta sobre qué clase de país quería ser el Perú al comenzar su tercer siglo de existencia.
A leaked Datum poll released in late April showed Pedro Castillo entering Peru's presidential runoff with a commanding lead over his rival Keiko Fujimori. The survey, conducted as the two candidates prepared for their June matchup, gave Castillo 41 percent support to Fujimori's 26 percent—a gap of fifteen points that suggested momentum firmly in the leftist candidate's favor.
Castillo, running under the Peru Libre banner, and Fujimori, the standard-bearer for Fuerza Popular, had emerged from the first round of voting on April 11 as the top two finishers. The official count by Peru's electoral authority showed Castillo with 19.058 percent of the national vote and Fujimori with 13.366 percent. Now, with a runoff scheduled for June 6, the poll offered an early snapshot of how voters were leaning as the campaign entered its decisive phase.
The numbers told a story of uneven geographic strength. In Peru's central regions, Castillo's advantage was overwhelming—he commanded 59 percent compared to Fujimori's 10 percent. The southern part of the country showed a similar pattern, with Castillo at 54 percent and Fujimori at 17 percent. The north presented a tighter contest, though Castillo still led 40 percent to 27 percent. These regional variations suggested that Castillo's appeal was particularly strong in areas outside the capital and its immediate surroundings, where Fujimori might have expected to find more receptive voters.
The poll also captured the undecided middle. Eighteen percent of respondents said they had not yet made up their minds about which candidate to support. Another 15 percent indicated they would cast blank or spoiled ballots—a protest vote that, while not directly helping either candidate, represented voters unwilling to choose between the two options before them. Together, these groups accounted for roughly a third of the electorate, leaving some room for movement in the final weeks before the vote.
Peruvians would return to the polls on Sunday, June 6, to make their choice between Castillo and Fujimori. Whoever won would assume the presidency on July 28, 2021, a date freighted with symbolic weight—it marked the beginning of Peru's bicentennial year, the two-hundredth anniversary of the nation's independence. The runoff, then, was not merely a choice between two candidates but a decision about what kind of country Peru would be as it entered its third century of existence.
Notable Quotes
Castillo held 41 percent support to Fujimori's 26 percent, with 18 percent undecided and 15 percent planning blank or spoiled votes— Datum poll
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a fifteen-point lead in April matter if the runoff isn't until June? Can't things shift dramatically in two months?
Absolutely they can. But this poll is a baseline—it shows where Castillo starts from a position of strength, and where Fujimori has ground to make up. The real question is whether that gap holds or narrows.
The regional numbers are striking. Castillo at 59 percent in the center but only 40 in the north. What explains that split?
Geography is destiny in Peru. The central and southern highlands are where Castillo's message—about redistribution, about challenging the Lima establishment—resonates most. The north is more commercially oriented, more connected to coastal business interests. Fujimori's family has deep roots in those networks.
What about those 18 percent undecided voters? Are they truly up for grabs, or are they leaning one way?
That's the unknown. Some are genuinely torn. Others might be shy about admitting support for one candidate or the other. In a runoff, undecided voters often break toward the challenger or the outsider—which would favor Castillo.
The blank and spoiled votes—15 percent—that's a lot of people rejecting both options.
It is. It suggests real dissatisfaction with the choice itself. These voters might feel neither candidate represents them, or they might be making a statement about the political system. In a close race, that could matter.
So what's Fujimori's path to victory from here?
She needs to make Castillo radioactive—paint him as a threat to stability and investment. She also needs to consolidate the north and make inroads in the center. But the clock is ticking, and the numbers suggest she's starting from a deep hole.