Lula leads even among those who received Bolsonaro's own cash assistance
In the long arc of Brazilian democracy, a Datafolha survey released on May 26 places former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 25 points ahead of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a hypothetical runoff — a margin that has only grown since March. The poll, conducted across 181 municipalities with 2,556 respondents, suggests not merely a lead but a potential first-round victory, raising deeper questions about the relationship between a government's social programs and the loyalties they are meant to cultivate.
- Lula's advantage has expanded from 21 to 25 points in just three months, signaling a race that may be moving away from Bolsonaro rather than toward him.
- The incumbent's own flagship cash transfer program, Auxílio Brasil, has failed to convert its beneficiaries — Lula leads among them by a staggering 39 points.
- With valid-vote modeling placing Lula at 54%, the prospect of an outright first-round victory is now a live scenario, not merely a talking point.
- Undecided voters have essentially vanished — only 1% remain uncommitted — suggesting the electorate has largely made up its mind months before the October vote.
A Datafolha poll released May 26 found Lula leading Bolsonaro 58% to 33% in a hypothetical runoff — a 25-point gap that had widened from the 21-point margin recorded by the same firm in March. Over those three months, Lula gained three points while Bolsonaro shed one, and the share of voters opting for blank or null ballots shrank from 10% to 8%, with just 1% still undecided.
When the firm modeled a first-round outcome using only valid votes, Lula reached 54% — the threshold for outright victory without a runoff. Across all ballots, including blank and null, he registered 48% to Bolsonaro's 27%, reinforcing his position as the commanding favorite regardless of how the race unfolds in October.
Perhaps the most telling detail was Lula's performance among recipients of Auxílio Brasil, the cash assistance program that Bolsonaro's government had positioned as a political asset. Among that group, Lula led 59% to 20% — a 39-point margin among the very voters the program was designed to reach. Datafolha interviewed 2,556 people across 181 municipalities on May 25 and 26, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
A Datafolha poll released Thursday, May 26, found Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva commanding a commanding lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a hypothetical runoff. The former president drew support from 58 percent of respondents, while Bolsonaro secured 33 percent—a gap of 25 percentage points that had widened since the same pollster's March survey, when Lula held a 21-point advantage.
The numbers suggested momentum in Lula's direction. Three months earlier, he had polled at 55 percent to Bolsonaro's 34 percent. Now, with the margin expanding, Lula's support had climbed three points while Bolsonaro's had dropped one. Eight percent of voters said they would cast blank or null ballots, down from 10 percent in March, and just 1 percent remained undecided between the two—unchanged from the prior survey.
When Datafolha modeled a first-round scenario using only valid votes, Lula reached 54 percent, a threshold that would allow him to claim victory without a runoff. Across all votes cast, including blank and null ballots, he registered 48 percent to Bolsonaro's 27 percent. The gap suggested that even if the race went to a second round, as many expected, Lula would enter it as a commanding favorite.
One striking detail underscored the breadth of Lula's support: he led even among voters who had received Auxílio Brasil, the cash assistance program distributed by Bolsonaro's government. Among that group, Lula drew 59 percent compared to Bolsonaro's 20 percent—a 39-point margin among beneficiaries of the incumbent's own signature social program.
Datafolha conducted the survey on May 25 and 26, interviewing 2,556 people across 181 municipalities. The margin of error was two percentage points in either direction. The firm registered the poll with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court under number BR-05166/2022, meeting the legal requirement for disclosure of all published surveys.
Notable Quotes
The former president would win in the first round with 54% of valid votes— Datafolha poll findings
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
What shifted between March and now? Three points doesn't sound like much.
It's the direction that matters. Lula was already ahead, but he's consolidating. Voters who were uncertain or leaning toward blank ballots are moving to him. That's not noise—that's a trend.
The Auxílio Brasil number is striking. How does Bolsonaro lose his own program's beneficiaries by 39 points?
Because a cash transfer doesn't erase everything else. People remember inflation, unemployment, the broader state of things. Money helps, but it doesn't override lived experience.
If Lula hits 54 percent of valid votes, does a runoff even happen?
That's the question. If he clears 50 percent in the first round, there's no runoff. But these are hypothetical matchups. The actual first round will have other candidates splitting votes. That changes the math.
So this poll is less about predicting the outcome and more about showing the shape of the race?
Exactly. It tells you Lula has built a coalition that spans income levels, regions, and even Bolsonaro's own supporters. That's durable. A 25-point gap in a runoff scenario is not a polling artifact—it's a real distance.