On a Wednesday in late November, a storm that had been drifting slowly across the Strait of Malacca gathered enough force to be named, and the India Meteorological Department gave it the name Senyar, a word borrowed from the United Arab Emirates that means lion. Its strength will hold for roughly a day before it meets the Indonesian coast near the equator and begins to fade. Yet the sky is never empty of such moods: a second system in the southwest Bay of Bengal is quietly organising, and it is the one that will bring rain and wind to the coasts of southern India and the Andamans in the days a
Cyclonic Storm Senyar Forms Over Strait of Malacca, Set to Cross Indonesian Coast Today
The name means "lion." Senyar was simply next on the roster.
Mark
So Senyar is crossing into Indonesia today. Does it threaten India directly?
Mimi
Not according to this bulletin. IMD has it making landfall near 5.0°N this forenoon, weakening, then turning west-southwest and recurving eastwards. The Indian rain warnings are tied to the other system.
Luke
Worth being clear about that. The source doesn't say Senyar brings rain to India. The rainfall forecasts sit in the same bulletin, but the only system it links to them is the Bay of Bengal low.
Mark
What is that second system, exactly?
Mimi
A well-marked low-pressure area in the southwest Bay, over parts of southeast Sri Lanka and the Equatorial Indian Ocean. IMD expects it to move north-northwestwards and become a depression within 24 hours.
Luke
Expects, and likely. That's a forecast, not an event. If it doesn't intensify, the late-week rain figures could change.
Mark
And the name? Senyar means lion?
Mimi
Yes, the UAE contributed it to the North Indian Ocean list. IMD names a storm only once a deep depression becomes a cyclonic storm.
Luke
Nothing here on damage, casualties or evacuations in Indonesia. The reporting covers formation and forecast only, so we don't know what landfall will actually bring.
Mark
So what do we watch?
Mimi
Whether the low becomes a depression, and the very heavy rain slated for Tamil Nadu from 28 to 30 November.
Der Puls
- A slow, deep depression has crossed the threshold into cyclonic storm Senyar over the Strait of Malacca, and the clock on its strength is already running.
- Senyar is set to strike the Indonesian coast near 5.0°N during the forenoon, then weaken and swing back eastwards over two days.
- A second low-pressure system in the southwest Bay of Bengal could deepen into a depression within 24 hours, threatening to deliver the week's heaviest rain.
- Heavy to very heavy rain, thunderstorms and gusts of 50-60 km/h are building toward Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and the Andamans through November 30.
- The decisive question is whether the Bay of Bengal low intensifies, because the peak downpours for the southern Indian coast are scheduled for the end of the week.
On a Wednesday in late November, a storm that had been drifting slowly across the Strait of Malacca gathered enough force to be named, and the India Meteorological Department gave it the name Senyar, a word borrowed from the United Arab Emirates that means lion. Its strength will hold for roughly a day before it meets the Indonesian coast near the equator and begins to fade. Yet the sky is never empty of such moods: a second system in the southwest Bay of Bengal is quietly organising, and it is the one that will bring rain and wind to the coasts of southern India and the Andamans in the days ahead.
Early on Wednesday, 26 November, a deep depression drifting west across the Strait of Malacca at about 10 kmph gathered enough strength to be classed as a cyclonic storm. The India Meteorological Department named it Senyar, and expects it to make landfall on the Indonesian coast within hours, holding cyclonic strength for about a day before weakening.
The name, meaning "lion," was contributed by the United Arab Emirates and sits next in the rotating list for the North Indian Ocean. IMD assigns names only when a deep depression intensifies into a cyclonic storm, so Senyar simply came next on the roster.
While Senyar moves toward Sumatra, a second system has taken shape in the southwest Bay of Bengal, covering parts of southeast Sri Lanka and the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is expected to drift north-northwestwards and may become a depression within a day. Its rain is the real concern for India: heavy showers are forecast for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, the Andamans and coastal Andhra Pradesh, with very heavy rain building toward 30 November.
Thunderstorms and gusty winds of up to 60 km/h accompany the rain, and the coming days will show whether the low strengthens into the storm that the coast is bracing for.
Early on Wednesday, 26 November, a deep depression drifting west across the Strait of Malacca at about 10 kmph gathered enough strength to be classed as a cyclonic storm. The India Meteorological Department named it Senyar, pronounced Sen-yar, and said it would make landfall on the coast of Indonesia within hours.
IMD's forecast puts the crossing near 5.0°N during the forenoon of 26 November. The department expects the system to hold cyclonic storm strength for roughly the next 24 hours and then weaken gradually. Its track after landfall is also mapped out: a turn west-southwestwards first, then a recurving path eastwards over the following two days.
The name comes from the United Arab Emirates, which contributed it to the rotating list of cyclone names for the North Indian Ocean. It means "lion." IMD assigns a name only when a deep depression intensifies into a cyclonic storm, and Senyar was simply the next one on the current roster.
Senyar is not the only system the department is watching. By 5:30 am IST on Wednesday, a separate weather system in the southwest Bay of Bengal had strengthened into a well-marked low-pressure area. It covers adjoining parts of southeast Sri Lanka and the Equatorial Indian Ocean. IMD said it is likely to move north-northwestwards and could intensify into a depression within 24 hours.
The rainfall outlook in India's bulletin centres on that second system. Heavy rain is forecast over Tamil Nadu from 25 to 30 November. Kerala and Mahe are expected to see it on 25 and 26 November, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from 25 to 29 November. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema are in line for heavy rain from 29 November to 1 December.
The warnings step up later in the week. Very heavy rainfall is expected in Tamil Nadu from 28 to 30 November, in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 26 and 27 November, and in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on 30 November.
The bulletin also flags thunderstorms with lightning. These are expected in Tamil Nadu from 25 to 29 November, Kerala and Mahe from 25 to 27 November, Lakshadweep on 25 November, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on 28 and 29 November. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are covered as well.
Gusty winds are forecast too, at 40-50 km/h on 25 November, 50-60 km/h from 26 to 28 November, and 30-40 km/h on 29 November. The next marker is whether the Bay of Bengal low becomes a depression within a day, since the heaviest rain for Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh is scheduled for the end of the week.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
The storm should keep cyclonic strength for about 24 hours before weakening gradually, then recurve eastwards after crossing the coast.— India Meteorological Department
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