Bitcoin at 50% loss: experts split on buy, hold or sell as technical indicators hit extremes

Bitcoin has lost half its value in a matter of months, and the market is frozen in indecision. On Tuesday, June 9th, the cryptocurrency fell another 4.5 percent to hover near $61,000, even as Michael Saylor's firm announced a fresh purchase of 1,550 Bitcoin for $101 million. The move, intended as a vote of confidence, landed with a thud. The price barely budged. What should have been reassuring instead underscored a deeper problem: confidence itself has evaporated.

The week prior had been the worst since the FTX collapse in late 2022. Bitcoin dropped roughly 14 percent in seven days. From its peak above $120,000, the asset has now surrendered half its gains. The technical indicators, meanwhile, are flashing signals that would normally suggest a bottom—the kind of moment that separates the disciplined from the panicked. Yet the market's silence in response to Saylor's purchase reveals something more important than any chart: investors are waiting for something bigger than a single corporate buyer to restore their faith.

The case for buying is built on historical precedent and mathematical measures. The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin's current price to the average cost basis of all coins ever transacted on the network, sits near zero. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, this metric touched or crossed that line before significant recoveries took hold. More than half of all Bitcoin holders are currently underwater on their positions—another signal that has historically coincided with cycle bottoms. Maximiliaan Michelsen, an analyst at 21Shares, points out that the aggregate realized price, representing the average cost of all coins in circulation, stands at $54,000. Bitcoin has found support near that level during major corrections in the past. "The sentiment is approaching levels comparable to the FTX period, after which Bitcoin rose more than four times in less than two years," Michelsen said.

Theodoro Fleury, a portfolio manager at QR Asset, sees the current moment as a genuine window. The cycle is behaving within historical patterns, with smaller declines than previous bear markets—a sign of growing market maturity. For those willing to think in years rather than months, he argues, success is likely. Yet even Fleury acknowledges the possibility of a deeper fall to $54,000. "I don't see why it couldn't drop to that level," he said.

The skeptics paint a different picture. Quinn Thompson, chief investment officer at Lekker Capital, recommends avoiding crypto entirely through the northern summer and reassessing only in late September. Institutional appetite is draining away as capital floods into mega artificial intelligence IPOs—deals worth trillions of dollars with movements in the hundreds of billions. Bitcoin, for all its significance, has become collateral damage in that rotation. The lack of price reaction to Saylor's purchase, Thompson argues, suggests investors are waiting for broader catalysts before committing fresh capital. The problems at Strategy itself remain unresolved, offering little foundation for a near-term recovery.

Even the optimists acknowledge constraints. Michelsen notes that the recovery space is more compressed than it was during February's correction. Back then, the 200-day moving average sat at $103,000, offering ample room for gains. Today, after seven months of depressed prices, that average has fallen to $78,476. A recovery to that level would still represent a significant move from current prices, but without the amplitude of the earlier bounce.

The long-term case, however, remains intact. Bernstein notes that combined inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries totaled roughly $12 billion in 2026, a sharp drop from the $60 billion captured in 2025. Yet the firm maintains a constructive outlook for the years ahead. Bitcoin still offers diversification in markets currently dominated by artificial intelligence momentum. The holder base is more diversified than ever—ETFs, pension funds, wealth management platforms, sovereign investors. This structure makes the asset less dependent on retail speculation and more resilient to isolated shocks. Fleury emphasizes the protocol's reliability: since its launch, Bitcoin has issued a block every ten minutes without failure, with mathematical difficulty adjustments executing precisely as programmed. The maximum supply is fixed at 21 million coins, and the emission schedule follows the original design exactly. "Bitcoin delivers everything it promises," Fleury said. "It's volatile, yes, but what it promises to deliver, it delivers."

For the individual investor, the recommendation is neither to dive in all at once nor to abandon ship. Michelsen suggests that those with a long-term horizon build exposure systematically over the coming months rather than trying to time the exact bottom. Waiting for technical confirmation carries a cost—over $10 billion in short positions sit above current prices and could be liquidated rapidly in a recovery, triggering a sharp move higher. Fleury proposes a concrete approach: monthly purchases over 12 to 18 months until reaching the desired Bitcoin allocation, without attempting to nail the entry point. "Now is a good time to start that strategy," he said. Fábio Plein, Coinbase's director for the Americas, emphasizes discipline over action. Investors should evaluate their own risk tolerance and gradually deepen their understanding of the market before increasing exposure. "Maintaining focus on long-term fundamentals and investing responsibly remains vital, regardless of market conditions," Plein told InfoMoney.

21Shares' base case points toward $100,000 by year-end 2026, roughly a 64 percent gain from current levels. To get there, Bitcoin would first need to defend support between $60,000 and $65,000, then consistently recover the $78,000 region where the 200-day moving average and the realized price converge. From that point, macro and structural factors—a potential resolution to Middle East tensions, a return of positive ETF flows, and regulatory progress in the United States—will determine the pace of recovery.