A week before New Zealanders go to the polls, the governing coalition has fractured in public over a simple, old question of how a voter should use two ballots. Two of its own partners have backed an advertisement urging right-leaning supporters to withhold their party vote from National, hoping to create an overhang that could reshape Parliament, while National's leader frets that such arithmetic might hand the government to Labour. Beneath the bickering lies a familiar truth of mixed-member democracy: the machinery designed to make every vote count can also make a coalition's loyalties uncer
Coalition Partners Split Over Vote-Splitting Ad as Luxon Warns of Labour Path to Power
"Apparently, vote-splitting is a sin," Peters joked as the coalition fractured
Mark
Why is a newspaper ad causing this much trouble inside a coalition?
Mimi
Because it asks right-leaning voters not to give National their party vote. ACT and New Zealand First both had to sign off on it, and they did, which is what Luxon says disappoints him.
Mark
What's the strategy actually trying to do?
Mimi
National wins as many electorates as possible while ACT and NZ First grow their party vote shares, forcing an overhang. Seymour's argument is that a party vote for ACT helps the coalition as much as one for National.
Luke
Is that arithmetic settled? Seymour calls it basic mathematical fact, but that's his claim.
Mimi
Fair. It's Seymour's framing. Luxon's counter is that the confusion could let Labour become the biggest party and form a government. Both are arguments, not outcomes.
Mark
ACT first said no, didn't it?
Mimi
By Seymour's account, yes, then approved it on condition the campaign back ACT in Epsom and Tāmaki. That exempts those two seats from the overhang plan.
Luke
Worth noting that's Seymour's telling. And he says he hasn't spoken to Brash about the strategy.
Mark
Where does Nicola Willis fit?
Mimi
She's running list-only, so an overhang could push several National MPs out, her included. Luxon wouldn't directly say whether that worried him.
Luke
And whether it would really happen is unknown. It depends on how people vote.
Mark
And Seymour's own ambitions?
Mimi
He said finance was "very possible", then said he was only outlining logical possibilities. How much of that is a move is unclear.
O Pulso
- Two coalition partners signed off on an advertisement urging voters to split their votes, and National's leader publicly called it disappointing.
- Seymour insists that a party vote for ACT and one for National both help keep Labour out, and says Luxon should be honest about it.
- Peters calls Luxon's stance a terrible mistake and tells National supporters to give their party vote to New Zealand First so it will really count.
- Finance Minister Nicola Willis, running list-only, could be pushed out of Parliament if an overhang materialises, and the outcome now hangs on next weekend's count.
A week before New Zealanders go to the polls, the governing coalition has fractured in public over a simple, old question of how a voter should use two ballots. Two of its own partners have backed an advertisement urging right-leaning supporters to withhold their party vote from National, hoping to create an overhang that could reshape Parliament, while National's leader frets that such arithmetic might hand the government to Labour. Beneath the bickering lies a familiar truth of mixed-member democracy: the machinery designed to make every vote count can also make a coalition's loyalties uncertain, and the people who must decide are left to weigh their own values against the mathematics their leaders are now arguing about.
On Saturday, a week before the election, New Zealand's governing coalition was arguing in public about how its own supporters should cast their votes. National leader Christopher Luxon said he was disappointed that ACT and New Zealand First had approved a newspaper advertisement urging right-leaning voters to withhold their party vote from National. The advertisement, placed by Reality Check Radio and written by Don Brash, aims to lift the party votes of the smaller partners and force an overhang.
David Seymour said his party had first refused, then agreed on the condition that the campaign back ACT in the Epsom and Tāmaki electorates. He insisted that a party vote for ACT and one for National both help keep Labour out, and that voters own their choices. Winston Peters went further, calling the campaign logical and Luxon's disappointment a terrible mistake, and urging National voters to give their party vote to New Zealand First.
The stakes are personal for National. An overhang could remove several of its MPs, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, who is running list-only. Labour's Chris Hipkins seized on the disarray. What to watch now is whether the strategy produces an overhang next weekend, and whether Willis is among those it costs.
On Saturday, a week out from the election, New Zealand's governing coalition was arguing in public about how its own supporters should vote. National leader Christopher Luxon said he was disappointed that his two coalition partners had signed off on a newspaper advertisement urging vote-splitting.
The advertisement was placed by Reality Check Radio and written by Don Brash, a former leader of both National and ACT. It tells right-leaning voters not to give National their party vote if they want to keep the left out of government. The idea is that National wins as many electorate seats as it can, while ACT and New Zealand First lift their shares of the party vote. The aim is to force an overhang. Under electoral law, both ACT and New Zealand First had to approve the ad, and on Friday the two parties confirmed they had.
David Seymour, the ACT leader, said on Saturday that his party first said no, then agreed on condition that the campaign back ACT in the Epsom and Tāmaki electorates. Seymour is seeking re-election in Epsom, and James Christmas hopes to hold Tāmaki for ACT after Brooke van Velden's retirement. Those two seats are therefore exempt from the campaign's overhang strategy. Brash placed a separate advertisement himself, a "personal message" urging votes for ACT in those electorates.
Luxon said National does not support the campaign and warned that people were "trying to confuse you" by suggesting a vote for another party helps National. He called it a very tight election and said the confusion could produce a Labour coalition government. Asked about his partners' motives, he said they would have to be asked. His concern, he said, was that Labour could end up with the biggest party vote and then form a government, which he called bad news for New Zealand.
Seymour replied that Luxon "should be honest" that a party vote for ACT adds to the goal of keeping Labour out just as a National vote does. He called that the basic mathematical facts and said a vote for ACT will not let Labour come through the middle. He said he had not spoken to Brash about the overhang strategy but would not stand in the way of others encouraging party votes for ACT. People were getting ahead of themselves, he said, and voters own their votes: give the electorate vote to the person who will answer your phone call on a Friday afternoon, and the party vote to the party that shares your values.
Winston Peters, the New Zealand First leader, went further. At a public meeting in Papakura he said there had always been two votes under MMP and joked that vote-splitting had apparently become a sin. Afterwards he told media that supporting the campaign made "logical sense" and that he did not know why people were trying to "defy gravity". He said Luxon was making a "terrible mistake" by expressing disappointment, and that an overhang had been a possibility since MMP was first voted on. National's party vote, he said, should go direct to New Zealand First, "that way, it'll really count."
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the episode showed the "total dysfunction and disarray" on the right. He urged voters not to wake up next Sunday with a "National hangover" and to give two ticks to Labour.
A second vote-splitting campaign, run by businessman Harry Mowbray, has hit a snag after National complained to the Electoral Commission. Luxon said National did not want to be part of it and does not endorse it.
The stakes are personal for National. If an overhang happens, several of its MPs would be out of Parliament, including Finance Minister and deputy leader Nicola Willis, who is running list-only. Luxon would not say directly whether he was worried about losing her, repeating that the election would be tight. He has called it "non-negotiable" that Willis keeps the finance portfolio for a second term. That has put Seymour under questioning about his own ambitions: on Friday he told Newstalk ZB it was "very possible" he would seek the role in coalition negotiations, then said people were getting ahead of themselves. On Saturday he said he had merely outlined logical possibilities.
What to watch now is whether the strategy produces an overhang next weekend, and whether Willis is among those it costs.
Citações Notáveis
A party vote for ACT adds to the coalition just as effectively as a party vote for National.— ACT leader David Seymour
It risks creating confusion amongst the voters and it's the thing that could actually create a Labour coalition government.— National leader Christopher Luxon
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