After more than four decades of watching Australian homes change hands, John McGrath has reached a judgement that the sharpest part of the present property slump in the big cities may be behind us. His view, set out in the McGrath Report 2027, draws less on any single statistic than on the memory of seven earlier downturns, and it sits uneasily beside official data that still shows only modest falls. Alongside that reassurance he offers a map of forty suburbs he expects to grow, a reminder that markets are never felt evenly and that a cooling city often pushes its buyers toward neighbours stil
'Close to the bottom': John McGrath names 40 growth suburbs as big-city property falls near their end
The fastest fall in values I can remember
Mark
McGrath says this is his eighth correction. Why does that number matter?
Mimi
It's his credential. He's saying he has seen the pattern seven times before, and that history points to big cities being close to the bottom.
Mark
And the fall itself?
Mimi
He says most big metro markets are down 10 to 15 per cent in six months, some 20 per cent, and calls it the fastest he can remember.
Luke
But the data companies are reporting single-digit falls. His figures are his own street-level read, not a published measure. That gap is unresolved.
Mark
So the bottom call is also his view?
Luke
Yes. It's an inference from past cycles, not something the report proves. Nothing here confirms the bottom has arrived.
Mimi
The suburb picks are framed the same way: expectations for the year ahead, with some hard numbers like Mayfield's 27.9 per cent rise last year and Chigwell's 5.3 per cent yield.
Mark
What's the pattern in the picks?
Mimi
Affordability and connection. Beenleigh, Maryborough and Chigwell are all cheaper than their neighbours, with transport or amenity behind them.
Luke
And McGrath's agency sells property, so these are forecasts from an interested party. Worth watching whether official data starts to match his numbers.
Der Puls
- Big-city values are falling faster than most can remember, with McGrath's street-level estimates of 10 to 15 per cent losses in six months and some near 20 per cent.
- Official data reports only single-digit declines, leaving buyers, sellers and owners uncertain which picture to trust.
- McGrath is steering attention toward forty suburbs across four states, from Campsie and Sunshine to Beenleigh, Chigwell and Mayfield, where he expects growth to return.
- The market appears to be nearing a floor in the major cities, though the verdict rests on his history-based judgement and on whether official numbers begin to match what he sees.
After more than four decades of watching Australian homes change hands, John McGrath has reached a judgement that the sharpest part of the present property slump in the big cities may be behind us. His view, set out in the McGrath Report 2027, draws less on any single statistic than on the memory of seven earlier downturns, and it sits uneasily beside official data that still shows only modest falls. Alongside that reassurance he offers a map of forty suburbs he expects to grow, a reminder that markets are never felt evenly and that a cooling city often pushes its buyers toward neighbours still within reach. Whether the gap between his street-level sense of loss and the published figures will close is the question that will tell the story's next chapter.
John McGrath has spent more than forty years in Australian property, and he says he has never watched values fall this quickly. Releasing the McGrath Report 2027, the founder of the McGrath agency argues that the worst of the slide in the big cities may already be passing. He counts this as his eighth correction, and the speed of it feels unlike any he has known.
The unease lies in the gap between what he sees and what the numbers say. Data companies report single-digit falls, while his own street-level estimates put most big metropolitan markets down 10 to 15 per cent over six months, with some down 20 per cent. History is the ground for his optimism: seven earlier cycles suggest the big cities are close to the bottom.
He then turns to where growth may come next, naming forty suburbs across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania. In Sydney he tips Campsie, which he sees as the next Marrickville, and in regional New South Wales Narooma, where a new resort-style motel has opened and house prices still look fair. In Melbourne he points to Sunshine, and in regional Victoria to Mildura, whose population and jobs are forecast to grow. Queensland's Beenleigh benefits from rail and motorway links, and Maryborough offers heritage streets and affordability. In Tasmania, Chigwell and Mayfield offer strong rental yields at modest prices.
Whether his far steeper estimates and the official single-digit falls move closer together will show over the coming year.
John McGrath has been selling property in Australia for more than 40 years, and he says he has not seen values fall this quickly in all that time. The founder and CEO of the McGrath agency has released the McGrath Report 2027, the latest edition of his annual look at the trends shaping the property market and the year ahead. Its message is that the worst of the slide in the big cities may be nearly over.
McGrath describes the current downturn as his eighth market correction since he entered the industry. He says it feels like the fastest fall in values he can remember. He also points to a gap between the official picture and what he sees on the ground. Data companies, he says, are reporting single-digit falls, but he insists that in most big metropolitan markets values are down 10 to 15 per cent over the past six months, and some are down 20 per cent. These are his own street-level estimates, and they sit well above the published figures.
His reassurance rests on history. Having lived through seven earlier corrections, McGrath says past cycles suggest the big cities are close to the bottom of this one.
The report also names 40 suburbs he expects to grow over the coming year, spread across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Tasmania, and split between metropolitan and regional locations. The published excerpts highlight one metro and one regional pick in each state.
In New South Wales, he points to Campsie in Sydney. He recalls telling buyers a few years ago that Marrickville was the new Paddington, and says anyone who followed that advice would have doubled their money and then doubled it again. With its cultural mix, he says, Campsie may well be the new Marrickville. His regional pick is Narooma on the south coast, where Justin Hemmes' Merivale Group has recently opened a 1970s-inspired motel called The Whale, the town's first resort-style accommodation. The median house price there is $990,000, which McGrath says is good value against other seaside towns.
In Victoria, he names Sunshine in Melbourne, citing its mix of terrace homes, 1920s Californian bungalows, contemporary apartments and designer-built houses, along with its dining scene and cultural festivals. He suggests its days as one of Melbourne's best-kept property secrets may be numbered. The regional choice is Mildura on the Murray River, which he calls one of the state's strongest regional growth centres. Its economy spans agriculture, healthcare, construction and manufacturing. Its population is forecast to pass 66,000 by 2046, up from 56,792 in 2021, with employment expected to grow 26.5 per cent between 2026 and 2046.
In Queensland, Beenleigh sits in the growing corridor between Brisbane and the Gold Coast. McGrath cites rail and motorway access, investment in nearby employment hubs, and buyers moving in as neighbouring markets become less attainable. Maryborough, on the Fraser Coast, is his regional pick, with heritage streetscapes, established schools, and investment aimed at liveability and new housing. He says it is more affordable than the pricier coastal markets.
In Tasmania, Chigwell, 15 minutes north of Hobart off the Brooker Highway, has long been overshadowed by dearer Glenorchy suburbs. Median house values are just over $600,000 and the rental yield is 5.3 per cent. In Launceston, Mayfield has a median house price below $530,000, and home values rose 27.9 per cent last year. Yields still sit around 5.6 per cent.
The question to watch is whether the official single-digit falls and McGrath's far steeper estimates move closer together in the data over the coming year.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
History suggests the big cities are close to the bottom.— John McGrath, McGrath CEO and founder
This is my eighth market correction since I entered the industry more than 40 years ago.— John McGrath
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