We need fairer housing policies, or this is the trajectory we're headed toward.
At the intersection of climate science and social policy, researchers at the University of Sydney have issued a warning that reframes Australia's housing crisis not as an isolated economic problem, but as a civilizational stress test. Their modeling, built on nearly two decades of public data, projects that unchecked emissions could quadruple homelessness within a decade — a fate that falls most heavily on those already carrying the least. The study asks a question that transcends housing policy: what does a society owe its most vulnerable members when the ground itself is shifting beneath them?
- A peer-reviewed study projects Australian homelessness could quadruple by 2030 under current emissions trajectories, with home purchase costs doubling and rental affordability collapsing by 45 percent.
- Even the most optimistic low-emissions scenario offers no escape — homelessness would still double and rental affordability would fall by nearly a quarter over the same period.
- Well-meaning generic housing policies carry a hidden danger: without climate stress-testing, they risk creating systemic 'breaking points' that push vulnerable families deeper into crisis rather than lifting them out.
- Climate change is already quietly rewiring Australia's housing market through rising insurance premiums, disrupted construction supply chains, and shifting investment patterns — pressures that standard policy frameworks are not designed to absorb.
- Researchers are calling for targeted interventions aimed at low-income families, renters, and those already at risk — populations with the fewest buffers against rising costs and the least ability to relocate.
- The study lands as a political challenge: Australia's policymakers must decide whether to act on these projections now, or wait until the numbers become lived reality for millions.
Researchers at the University of Sydney have reached a stark conclusion: Australia's housing crisis and climate change are on a collision course, and the impact will fall hardest on those least equipped to survive it. The study, published in the journal Cities, draws on nearly two decades of public data — income records, housing prices, demographic trends, rental market figures — to model how different climate and economic scenarios could reshape the country's housing landscape over the next decade.
The projections are severe. Under a high-emissions scenario, home purchase costs could double and rental affordability could drop by 45 percent. Even modest annual increases in housing acquisition costs — as little as 0.5 percent — would push homelessness up by 16 percent relative to 2020 levels. At 3 percent annual growth, homelessness could spike by 69 percent. And in the most optimistic low-emissions scenario, homelessness would still double, with rental affordability declining by 23 percent. There is, the researchers conclude, no version of the future that avoids significant harm.
Perhaps the study's most counterintuitive finding concerns policy itself. Generic housing programs, if designed without accounting for climate pressures, could worsen inequality rather than ease it — creating systemic breaking points that push vulnerable families over the edge. Climate change is already reshaping Australia's real estate market through rising insurance costs, disrupted supply chains, and shifting investment patterns, and policies blind to these forces risk accelerating the very crises they intend to solve.
Researcher Nader Naderpajouh argues that housing policies must be stress-tested against climate scenarios before implementation, with support targeted at low-income families, renters, and those already at risk — groups with fewer resources to absorb rising costs or relocate. His colleague Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh frames the stakes plainly: without fairer, climate-aware housing policy, the trajectory Australia is already on will only deepen social inequality. The research leaves policymakers with an urgent question — whether to act on these warnings now, or wait until the projections become the lived reality of millions.
A team of researchers at the University of Sydney has arrived at a sobering conclusion: the housing crisis in Australia is about to collide with climate change in ways that could devastate the country's most vulnerable populations. Their study, published in the journal Cities, projects that homelessness could quadruple within the next decade if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory—a figure that dwarfs the scale of the problem as it existed in 2020.
Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh and Nader Naderpajouh, researchers at the university's School of Project Management, built their analysis on nearly two decades of Australian public data: income records, housing prices, demographic shifts, and rental market accessibility. They then ran simulations to model how different climate scenarios and economic conditions might reshape the housing market. What emerged was a landscape of cascading pressure on families already struggling to afford shelter.
In a high-emissions scenario—the trajectory Australia is currently on—the numbers are stark. Home purchase costs could double. Rental affordability could plummet by 45 percent. But these are not isolated economic abstractions. They translate directly into human displacement. A modest annual increase of just 0.5 percent in housing acquisition costs, the researchers found, would push homelessness up by 16 percent and reduce rental accessibility by 15 percent relative to 2020 levels. If costs climb by 3 percent annually, homelessness could spike by 69 percent while rental affordability collapses by 36 percent.
Even in a more optimistic scenario—one with lower emissions and more aggressive climate action—the outlook remains grim. Homelessness would still double over the decade, and rental affordability would decline by 23 percent. There is no path forward, in other words, that avoids significant harm.
The researchers identified a particular danger lurking in well-intentioned policy. Generic housing programs, designed to improve access to shelter across the board, could actually worsen inequality if they ignore climate impacts. These policies risk creating what the researchers call "breaking points" in the housing system—moments when the system buckles under accumulated stress and pushes vulnerable families over the edge into homelessness. Climate change is already reshaping Australia's real estate market: insurance costs are climbing, construction supply chains are disrupted, and investment patterns are shifting. Without accounting for these pressures, housing policies could inadvertently accelerate the very crises they aim to solve.
Naderpajouh argues that future housing policies must be stress-tested against climate scenarios before implementation. Support, he suggests, should be targeted at specific populations—low-income families, renters, people already at risk of homelessness—rather than applied as a one-size-fits-all intervention. These groups, he notes, bear a disproportionate burden from climate impacts. They have fewer resources to relocate, less ability to absorb rising costs, and less access to insurance or financial buffers.
Habibi-Moshfegh frames the challenge in terms of political will. "The pressure on Australians in the housing market is already enormous," he said, "and we predict social inequality will worsen in the future. We need fairer housing policies, or this is the trajectory we're headed toward." The research suggests that ignoring climate change in housing debates is not just an oversight—it is a policy failure with measurable human consequences. The question now is whether Australia's policymakers will act on this warning before the projections become reality.
Notable Quotes
The pressure on Australians in the housing market is already enormous, and we predict social inequality will worsen in the future. We need fairer housing policies, or this is the trajectory we're headed toward.— Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh, researcher at University of Sydney School of Project Management
Housing policies are often generic, but priorities should shift toward targeted support for specific market segments like low-income families, renters, and people at risk of homelessness. These groups are disproportionately affected by climate change.— Nader Naderpajouh, associate professor and director of University of Sydney School of Project Management
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does climate change specifically make housing more expensive? It seems like two separate problems.
Climate change is already hitting Australia's real estate market in concrete ways. Insurance costs are rising because extreme weather is becoming more frequent and severe. Construction supply chains are getting disrupted—materials cost more, take longer to arrive. Investors are pulling money out of high-risk areas. All of that feeds directly into the price of buying or renting a home.
So it's not just that people lose their homes in floods or fires—it's that housing becomes unaffordable even before disaster strikes.
Exactly. The study shows that even modest annual increases in housing costs—things that might seem normal in an economy—push people into homelessness when climate pressures are factored in. A 0.5 percent annual increase becomes a 16 percent jump in homelessness. The system has less slack in it.
The researchers mention that generic housing policies could make things worse. How does that happen?
A government might say, "We'll build more affordable housing" or "We'll subsidize rents." Those sound good. But if you don't account for climate costs—insurance, maintenance, supply chain disruptions—your policy might help some people while leaving others more exposed. You're not addressing the root pressure. You're just redistributing a shrinking pie.
Who gets hurt the worst?
Low-income families, renters, people already living on the edge. They can't absorb rising costs. They can't move to safer areas. They can't buy insurance. When the system breaks, they're the ones who fall through.
Is there a way to fix this?
The researchers say yes, but it requires climate simulations before policies are implemented. You have to ask: if emissions stay high, if extreme weather increases, if insurance costs double, will this policy still work? And you have to design support that targets the people most at risk, not generic programs that assume stable conditions.