China can signal it could do even more to help Russia
As the International Criminal Court leveled war crimes charges against Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping chose Moscow for a three-day state visit — a gesture that spoke louder than any diplomatic communiqué. The encounter between two leaders who once declared a 'no-limits friendship' was less a negotiation than a demonstration: that the architecture of Western-led international order faces a sustained counter-alignment. In the long arc of geopolitical history, moments like this mark not sudden ruptures but the slow crystallization of rival visions for how the world ought to be governed.
- The ICC's war crimes charges against Putin — holding him personally responsible for the abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children — represented the most acute legal and diplomatic isolation of his presidency.
- Xi's arrival in Moscow, carefully timed days after Putin's defiant visit to occupied Crimea and Mariupol, sent an unmistakable signal that China's strategic partnership would not bend to Western condemnation.
- China's public posture of neutrality is increasingly strained by its growing purchases of Russian energy and the implicit threat that Beijing could do 'a lot more' to enable Russia if U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate.
- The meeting cast a long shadow over Taiwan, with observers drawing direct parallels between Russia's territorial claims and China's own stated ambitions to reunify the self-ruled island — by force if necessary.
- Western governments and parliaments have responded with surging support for Taiwan and mounting resistance to Chinese commercial and diplomatic influence, deepening the fault lines this summit was designed to straddle.
When Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow, Vladimir Putin was navigating the most serious international isolation of his presidency. The International Criminal Court had just charged him with personal responsibility for the abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children — meaning any signatory nation would be legally bound to arrest him on arrival. Putin had responded with defiance, making a weekend visit to occupied Crimea and Mariupol to mark nine years since Russia's seizure of the peninsula. Xi's three-day visit was the answer to that moment: a demonstration that Russia's most powerful partner had not stepped away.
China offered little detail about what Xi hoped to achieve. In an article published in a Russian newspaper, he described the trip as 'a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace,' calling for a resolution to the Ukraine crisis built on 'common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security.' The language was careful and uncommitting. But the symbolism required no translation. Before the invasion, the two leaders had proclaimed a 'no-limits friendship.' Since then, China had publicly called for a ceasefire — a proposal Washington dismissed as one that would simply lock in Russia's battlefield gains — while quietly increasing purchases of Russian oil and gas, helping to offset the bite of Western sanctions.
Analysts noted the deeper strategic logic at work. Both leaders faced severely strained relations with Washington, and the meeting allowed each to signal that powerful partners remained available. The implication was pointed: China had so far complied with American warnings against providing military support to Russia, but that restraint was a choice — and choices can change.
The visit resonated well beyond Ukraine. Observers drew a direct line between Russia's territorial claims and China's own assertion that Taiwan must eventually reunify with the mainland, by force if necessary. Beijing had been steadily escalating its pressure on the island — fighter jet incursions, missile tests into surrounding waters — ahead of Taiwanese presidential elections the following year. Meanwhile, a former Taiwanese president from the opposition was preparing his own visit to China, in what appeared to be an effort to shift the island's political atmosphere.
China's posture had already generated significant pushback: growing resistance to Chinese companies abroad, surging legislative support for Taiwan in Washington and European capitals, and deepening disputes over technology, human rights, and Beijing's treatment of Hong Kong and Muslim minorities. Xi's journey to stand beside a sanctioned, ICC-indicted Putin was, against all of that, a deliberate assertion — that China would not be isolated, and that Western pressure would not determine who it chose to stand with.
Vladimir Putin was facing his most serious international isolation yet when Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow. The International Criminal Court had just issued charges accusing the Russian president of personal responsibility for the abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children. Governments recognizing the court's jurisdiction would be legally obligated to arrest him if he crossed their borders. Into this moment of acute vulnerability stepped China's leader, scheduled for a three-day visit that would serve as a unmistakable signal: Russia was not alone.
The timing was deliberate. Just days before Xi's arrival, Putin had made a defiant weekend trip to Crimea and the occupied port city of Mariupol, visiting schools and chatting with residents to mark the ninth anniversary of Russia's seizure of the peninsula. The Kremlin had dismissed the ICC charges as "outrageous and unacceptable." Now, with Xi coming to Moscow, Putin could demonstrate that his most powerful ally remained firmly at his side despite the legal jeopardy and Western condemnation.
China's government released almost no details about what Xi hoped to accomplish during the visit, which was scheduled to run from Monday through Wednesday. The official line was measured: Xi wrote in an article published in the Russian newspaper Russian Gazette that his trip would be "a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace," and that a reasonable resolution to the Ukraine crisis could be found if all parties embraced a vision of "common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security." It was diplomatic language that committed China to nothing concrete.
Yet the symbolism was unmistakable. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Xi and Putin had declared they shared a "no-limits friendship." Since then, China had attempted to position itself as neutral, calling for a ceasefire the previous month—a proposal Washington immediately criticized as one that would simply ratify Russia's battlefield gains. But neutrality and strategic partnership are not the same thing. China depends on Russia as a crucial source of oil and gas for its energy-hungry economy, and both nations see themselves as locked in opposition to what they view as American domination of global affairs. Along with India and other countries claiming neutrality, China had significantly increased its purchases of Russian energy, effectively helping to replenish the Kremlin's coffers as Western sanctions squeezed its revenues.
Joseph Torigian, an expert in Chinese-Russian relations at American University, explained the deeper calculation. The meeting gave both leaders a chance to demonstrate they had "powerful partners" at a moment when their relations with Washington were severely strained. "China can signal that it could even do more to help Russia," Torigian said, "and that if relations with the United States continue to deteriorate, they could do a lot more to enable Russia and help Russia in its war against Ukraine." Beijing had largely complied with American warnings not to provide military support—but the implication hung in the air that this restraint was a choice, not an inevitability.
The visit also carried implications far beyond Ukraine. Some observers drew a direct parallel between Russia's claims to Ukrainian territory and China's assertion that Taiwan, the self-ruled island democracy that split from the mainland in 1949, must eventually reunify with China by force if necessary. Xi's government had been steadily escalating its intimidation campaign: flying fighter jets near the island and firing missiles into surrounding waters. Taiwan would hold presidential elections the following year, and the timing of Xi's Moscow visit coincided with news that Ma Ying-jeou, a former Taiwanese president from the opposition Nationalist Party, would visit China the following week in an apparent effort to influence the island's political mood. Ma had presided over a period of warmer ties with Beijing before leaving office under a cloud after China's legislature rejected a trade deal amid the country's largest protests since the 1990s.
China's campaign of diplomatic isolation and military threats against Taiwan had already provoked significant backlash. Chinese companies faced growing resistance overseas, while support for Taiwan had surged in both the U.S. House of Representatives and European parliaments. Beijing's relations with Washington, Europe, and its neighbors remained strained by disputes over technology, security, human rights, and the Communist Party's treatment of Hong Kong and Muslim minorities. Against this backdrop, Xi's journey to stand beside Putin was a calculated assertion: China would not be isolated, and it would not abandon its strategic partners in the face of Western pressure.
Notable Quotes
China can signal that it could even do more to help Russia, and that if relations with the United States continue to deteriorate, they could do a lot more to enable Russia and help Russia in its war against Ukraine.— Joseph Torigian, expert in Chinese-Russian relations at American University
My upcoming visit to Russia will be a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace.— Xi Jinping, in an article published in the Russian Gazette
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does this visit matter so much? Putin is already isolated—one more handshake doesn't change the ICC charges.
It changes the narrative. Putin can tell his domestic audience and his military that he has a superpower backing him. It signals to the world that China won't follow the West's lead on isolation.
But China says it's neutral on Ukraine. Isn't this contradictory?
Neutrality and strategic partnership aren't mutually exclusive in Beijing's calculation. They can claim they're not taking sides while simultaneously buying Russian oil at discounted prices and showing up for photo ops. It's a form of neutrality that has a direction.
What does China actually get out of this?
Energy security, for one. Russia supplies the oil and gas China's economy needs. But more than that—it's about the broader competition with the United States. Both countries see themselves as resisting American dominance. If they can show they're aligned, it complicates Washington's ability to isolate either one.
And Taiwan? How does this connect?
That's the unspoken parallel. If the world accepts Russia's territorial claims in Ukraine, what does that mean for China's claims on Taiwan? Xi is watching how the West responds to Putin. He's also signaling to Taiwan that he has powerful friends.
So this is really about Taiwan?
It's about everything at once. Ukraine, Taiwan, energy, the balance of power between East and West. The visit is Xi saying: we're not choosing sides, we're choosing ourselves.