China's Taiwan Strategy: Coercion Before Invasion

China is attempting to shift the status quo by normalizing its security presence in contested waters east of Taiwan, testing international acceptance of Beijing's jurisdictional claims. This challenges US-led Pacific order and Taiwan's strategic autonomy. The strategy aims to incrementally establish de facto control before potential military action, reducing reliance on allies for crisis response.

Similar to Soviet blockade tactics during Cold War (Berlin, Cuba) and gradual territorial assertion strategies; echoes salami-slicing tactics used in South China Sea island-building campaigns.

Consumers face potential supply chain disruptions for electronics and manufactured goods, higher insurance costs for shipping through contested waters, and increased prices for tech products if Taiwan's semiconductor production is threatened. Energy costs may rise due to shipping route uncertainty.

Governments likely to increase defense budgets, strengthen Taiwan security commitments, impose sanctions on China, establish alternative supply chains for critical semiconductors, and coordinate multilateral responses. Regional trade agreements may be renegotiated to reduce Taiwan dependency.