China's September Exports Jump 36.3%, Pushing Trade Surplus Toward $1 Trillion

Customs figures released in Beijing on October 14 showed China's exports in September rising 36.3% from a year earlier. Economists had expected growth of 25.5%. August's rise was 25.0%, and September's was the fastest since February, when exports grew 39.6%.

Imports kept pace. They rose 31.0% in September, after 28.2% growth in August and against a forecast of 24.5%. The result was a trade surplus of US$133.53 billion for the month, wider than expected, and it keeps China on course to pass the record surplus it set in 2025.

The cumulative numbers are large. In the first nine months of 2026, the surplus reached US$938.11 billion. Last year's surplus was a record US$1.189 trillion, and it first crossed US$1 trillion in November 2025. Unless exports slow sharply in the final quarter, China will reach the US$1 trillion mark earlier this year, and a sharp slowdown looks unlikely for now.

Technology and cars are doing much of the work. Semiconductor exports rose 108.1% in value terms over the first nine months, and auto exports grew by more than 50% in both value and volume. Global demand for chips and green-tech products has kept factories busy, which eases pressure on policymakers to prop up growth against weak domestic demand and investment. With the worldwide build-out of AI infrastructure showing little sign of slowing, analysts expect demand for Chinese-made technology to hold up.

The widening gaps with two major partners are the sensitive part. September's surplus with the United States was US$34.01 billion, a 20-month high, and the surplus with the European Union was larger, at US$34.8 billion. Earlier in October, China and the EU announced a deal to limit Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc, which is likely to weigh on auto trade over time. But the measures are expected to be laid out in December, so exporters may rush shipments to beat the deadline. ANZ's China economist, Nguyen Hoang Nam, said the growing surplus with Europe could prompt broader EU restrictions than last week's narrow deal, though he expects the fallout for China to be small. Relations with Washington are steadier for now: President Xi Jinping's September summit with President Donald Trump in Washington produced an extension of their tariff truce and an agreement to cut tariffs on US$30 billion worth of goods from each side.

Officials struck a cautious but confident note. Wang Jun, a vice-customs minister, told a press briefing that external uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts, could affect trade, but that there was a foundation and support for continued growth in exports and imports in the fourth quarter. Lynn Song, ING's chief Greater China economist, said key trade ties look set to stay stable through year-end, keeping this year's main growth engine running. The Canton Fair, China's largest trade exhibition, opens on October 15, giving manufacturers a stage to show products to foreign buyers.

The picture at home is more uneven. Factory-gate prices rose in September at their fastest pace in more than four years, while consumer inflation edged up but fell short of forecasts. Crude oil imports fell 21.5% from a year earlier in volume, and soybean imports dropped 7.7%. Strong exports suggest policymakers may need only moderate support to meet the 4.5% to 5% annual growth target.

The risk is political. Washington and Brussels blame China's industrial and monetary policies for its surplus, and Beijing continues to defend them. Last week the central bank issued a lengthy statement rejecting criticism of its exchange-rate policy, saying it never pursued competitive depreciation and does not hold the yuan artificially weak. Any major blow to exports could push policymakers toward more stimulus to address weak domestic demand and the years-long property downturn. The next markers are the December EU measures and the fourth-quarter trade data.