In the slow-turning wheel of German democracy, the CDU claimed a modest but meaningful victory in Lower Saxony's municipal elections on September 13, holding off both the SPD and a surging AfD in a contest watched as a measure of the center-right's resilience. Yet the relief was partial at best: nationally, the AfD climbed to 29 percent, and the CDU's own allies sounded alarms about stagnation, energy costs, and the fertile ground discontent provides for the far right. Against this backdrop, an antisemitic attack on a Jewish woman in Berlin during Rosh Hashanah served as a reminder that electo
CDU holds ground in Lower Saxony as AfD surges nationally
An apparent antisemitic attack occurred in Berlin on the night of September 12-13, in which a 43-year-old Jewish woman was verbally abused and physically attacked with a broken bottle.
Stagnation is the best fuel for the AfD
Mark
So the CDU won in Lower Saxony—does that mean the AfD surge has peaked?
Mimi
Not necessarily. The CDU did well locally there, but the national picture is different. The AfD hit 29 percent in the new poll, up from 28 the week before. That's still climbing.
Luke
Right, and we should note that's one poll—the Insa poll for Bild. It's solid, but it's a snapshot. The real test is whether the CDU can hold anywhere else. They're about to get hammered in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Mark
Why is Lower Saxony different from the rest of the country?
Mimi
Local elections often work differently than national ones. Voters may trust a local CDU candidate even if they're frustrated with Berlin. And turnout was unusually high—50 percent by mid-afternoon—which sometimes favors established parties.
Luke
That's fair, but we don't know yet if that high turnout helped the CDU specifically or just reflected general engagement. The final numbers will tell us more.
Mark
Söder said stagnation fuels the AfD. What does he mean?
Mimi
He's saying the government isn't moving fast enough on things people care about—energy prices, economic problems. When people feel stuck, they look for alternatives, even radical ones.
Luke
Söder's also positioning himself as the voice of urgency within the coalition. That's partly diagnosis, partly politics. But he's right that energy prices are genuinely high—€2.27 per liter for premium gas on Saturday, near 2022 records.
Mark
Is there anything the government can actually do about that?
Mimi
Woidke, the Brandenburg SPD premier, called for a price cap on gas. Germany tried a fuel rebate from May to June that cost about 1.6 billion euros, but the federal government rejected renewing it.
Luke
So there are options, but they're expensive and the government has decided against them. That's a choice with political consequences, especially when the AfD is offering simpler answers to frustrated voters.
Le Pouls
- The AfD's national momentum, fueled by its landslide in Saxony-Anhalt, made Lower Saxony a test of whether the CDU could hold its traditional ground — and, narrowly, it did.
- CSU leader Söder issued an urgent warning to his coalition partners: stagnation and high energy prices are handing the AfD a 'penalty kick with no goalkeeper,' demanding the government act decisively.
- Turnout surged across Lower Saxony — half of eligible voters had cast ballots by mid-afternoon, with some waiting 40 minutes in line — signaling a restless, engaged electorate.
- A 43-year-old Jewish woman was physically attacked with a broken bottle in Berlin on the eve of Rosh Hashanah, prompting cross-party condemnation and warnings of antisemitism spreading across the political spectrum.
- The CDU's relief in Lower Saxony is shadowed by what lies ahead: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania next Sunday, polls show the party at just 7 percent, exposing deep national vulnerability.
In the slow-turning wheel of German democracy, the CDU claimed a modest but meaningful victory in Lower Saxony's municipal elections on September 13, holding off both the SPD and a surging AfD in a contest watched as a measure of the center-right's resilience. Yet the relief was partial at best: nationally, the AfD climbed to 29 percent, and the CDU's own allies sounded alarms about stagnation, energy costs, and the fertile ground discontent provides for the far right. Against this backdrop, an antisemitic attack on a Jewish woman in Berlin during Rosh Hashanah served as a reminder that electoral tremors are never merely statistical — they carry human weight.
Germany's CDU secured 27.7 percent in Lower Saxony's municipal elections on September 13, finishing ahead of the SPD at 24.5 percent and the AfD at 16.5 percent — a result that offered Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party a rare moment of stability amid a turbulent political season. The Greens placed fourth at 13.6 percent, with The Left and FDP trailing behind. CDU state leader Sebastian Lechner had acknowledged before the results came in that his party carried a "credibility problem" and faced real headwinds from public discontent with Berlin.
Yet the local win could not obscure a more troubling national picture. A new poll released the same day showed the AfD rising to 29 percent nationally, while the CDU-CSU bloc remained flat at 20 percent. Markus Söder, the Bavarian premier and CSU leader, warned bluntly that government stagnation and high energy prices were the "best fuel" for the far right, urging the coalition to raise its ambitions before the AfD's momentum became unstoppable.
Turnout in Lower Saxony was notably high — 50.67 percent by mid-afternoon, compared to 43.99 percent at the same point in 2021 — suggesting an electorate alert and unsettled. Individual races offered their own stories: in Wolfsburg, CDU incumbent Dennis Weilmann won decisively with 50.1 percent; in Wilhelmshaven, an independent candidate became the city's first female mayor with roughly 55 percent of the vote.
The elections unfolded against a darker backdrop. In Berlin, on the night of September 12-13 — Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year — a 43-year-old Jewish woman was verbally abused and attacked with a broken bottle in what authorities treated as an antisemitic assault. Politicians across parties condemned the violence, with Green faction leader Werner Graf warning of "growing antisemitism coming from all political quarters."
For the CDU, the path forward remains precarious. The Lower Saxony result, while encouraging, cannot conceal the party's national fragility: in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where elections are scheduled the following Sunday, polls show CDU support at just 7 percent — a potential debacle that will test whether the party's local resilience can survive the AfD's continuing rise.
Germany's center-right Christian Democratic Union held its ground in Lower Saxony's municipal elections on September 13, capturing 27.7 percent of the vote and offering the party a rare moment of relief amid a turbulent political season. The SPD finished second with 24.5 percent, while the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, placed third at 16.5 percent—a result that defied the national momentum the party has been building since its landslide victory in neighboring Saxony-Anhalt the week before.
The Lower Saxony vote had been watched closely by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU leadership as a barometer of whether the party could resist the AfD's surge in its traditional strongholds. CDU state leader Sebastian Lechner acknowledged before the projections were released that the party faced headwinds. "We, too, have noticed the discontent over Berlin," he said, admitting that his party carried a "credibility problem" that needed addressing. The results suggested the CDU could still compete locally even as its national standing weakened. The Greens came fourth with 13.6 percent, followed by The Left at 5.9 percent and the FDP at 3.6 percent.
Yet the broader picture remained troubling for Merz's coalition. A nationwide poll released the same day showed the AfD climbing to 29 percent—up one point from the previous week—while the CDU-CSU conservative bloc remained flat at 20 percent. The Greens gained a point to reach 14 percent, overtaking the junior coalition partner SPD, which held at 13 percent. The Left remained unchanged at 10 percent. Markus Söder, the Bavarian premier and leader of the CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union, issued a stark warning to his allies. "There could be no better invitation—a penalty kick with no goalkeeper—for the AfD at this point," Söder said ahead of a closed-door CSU executive meeting in Munich. He called on the government to "step it up a notch," arguing that stagnation was "the best fuel for the AfD." He singled out high energy prices as an urgent concern, warning that developments in the Middle East could push German fuel costs even higher.
The Lower Saxony election itself drew unusually high turnout. By 4:30 p.m., half of eligible voters had already cast ballots—50.67 percent—compared to 43.99 percent at the same time in 2021. The state election commission called the increase "significant." In some polling places, particularly in Hanover's Südstadt district, voters waited as long as 40 minutes to cast their ballots. The final turnout for 2021's local elections, including postal votes, had been 57 percent.
Individual mayoral races offered mixed signals. In Wolfsburg, home to Volkswagen's global headquarters, incumbent Dennis Weilmann of the CDU won decisively with 50.1 percent of the vote, defeating SPD candidate Karsten Schneider, who received 15.5 percent, and AfD candidate Thomas Schlick, who got 14.1 percent. Weilmann had held the office since 2021. In Oldenburg, the mayoral race went to a runoff, with SPD candidate Ulf Prange securing 33.16 percent and independent Jascha Rohr trailing at 30.54 percent. Wilhelmshaven, home to Germany's largest naval base, elected its first female mayor: independent candidate Eva Maria Haarmann won approximately 55 percent of the vote, while SPD's Volker Block received just under 22 percent.
The election unfolded against a backdrop of broader political turbulence. An apparent antisemitic attack in Berlin on the night of September 12-13 left a 43-year-old Jewish woman verbally abused and physically assaulted with a broken bottle. The attack occurred during Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year. The Left Party in Berlin condemned the violence, stating that wearing a Star of David should "always and everywhere be possible without danger." Werner Graf, leader of the Green Party faction in Berlin's House of Representatives, spoke of "growing antisemitism coming from all political quarters" and said fighting it would be a "central task" for the next state government.
Meanwhile, the CDU faced a steeper challenge ahead. Merz's party was expected to suffer a significant defeat in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the following Sunday, where recent polls showed CDU support had plummeted to just 7 percent. The Lower Saxony result, while encouraging locally, could not mask the party's vulnerability nationally as the AfD continued its climb and the next federal election loomed in 2029.
Citations marquantes
We, too, have noticed the discontent over Berlin. We have a credibility problem that should be addressed.— CDU state leader Sebastian Lechner
There could be no better invitation—a penalty kick with no goalkeeper—for the AfD at this point. Stagnation is the best fuel for the AfD.— CSU leader Markus Söder
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