In late September 2022, with the midterm elections drawing near, a CBS News projection quietly trimmed the number of House seats it expects Republicans to win, from 226 to 223. The shift is modest, yet it arrives at a familiar turning point in American politics, where the party out of the White House has long been favored to gain ground and where the Supreme Court's June decision on abortion has begun reshaping voter concerns. The models still point toward a Republican majority, but the margin they forecast is narrowing, and that narrowing says something about how a single contested issue can
CBS Model Trims Projected GOP House Majority to 223 Seats as Democrats Gain Ground Post-Dobbs
Still a Republican majority, but a thinner one each time
Mark
So CBS cut its Republican projection by three seats. Why does that matter if Republicans still win?
Mimi
Because the trend is the story. The model went from 230 in July to 226 in August to 223 now. Still a majority, but a thinner one each time.
Mark
And Democrats are crediting the abortion ruling?
Mimi
They're hoping it helps. CBS's poll found 41 percent think women will have fewer rights under a GOP Congress, versus 18 percent who think more.
Luke
Careful, though. That poll question is about expectations, not votes. It doesn't tell us how many people will change how they vote.
Mimi
Fair. The better signal is that 71 percent of women said a candidate must agree with them on abortion. That's higher than for the economy or immigration.
Luke
Higher in that poll, yes. It doesn't say what share of those women were already voting Democratic.
Mark
What about FiveThirtyEight?
Mimi
Republicans' chance of winning the House is 68 percent, down from nearly 90 percent before the ruling in June.
Luke
Worth noting that's a different model with its own method. The timing lines up with the ruling, but the reporting doesn't prove the ruling caused the drop. Legislative wins are also in the mix.
Mark
So what should a reader watch?
Mimi
Whether the numbers keep sliding toward 218, or flatten out. Republicans are still ahead.
O Pulso
- CBS's model now projects 223 Republican seats, down from 226 in August and 230 in July, a steady slide that unsettles a party expecting a comfortable takeover.
- Democrats hold a razor-thin 221-seat majority, and every seat in the projection carries weight as the 218-seat threshold looms.
- A CBS poll shows 41 percent expect women to lose rights under a Republican Congress, while only 18 percent expect gains, and 71 percent of women say abortion alignment decides their vote.
- FiveThirtyEight's Republican odds have dropped to 68 percent from nearly 90 percent before the abortion ruling, signaling that Democrats are gaining real momentum.
- The outcome remains open: Republicans still hold the edge, but whether the trend holds into November will decide whether their cushion keeps shrinking.
In late September 2022, with the midterm elections drawing near, a CBS News projection quietly trimmed the number of House seats it expects Republicans to win, from 226 to 223. The shift is modest, yet it arrives at a familiar turning point in American politics, where the party out of the White House has long been favored to gain ground and where the Supreme Court's June decision on abortion has begun reshaping voter concerns. The models still point toward a Republican majority, but the margin they forecast is narrowing, and that narrowing says something about how a single contested issue can alter the mood of an election.
On a Sunday in late September, CBS News lowered its forecast for Republican House seats in November, from 226 to 223. The network's model, run with the polling firm YouGov, still points to a Republican takeover, since either party needs 218 seats to control the chamber. What has changed is the size of the cushion Republicans are expected to enjoy.
History has made Democrats anxious. The president's party usually loses seats in a midterm, and that expectation grew as inflation hit a 40-year high and President Biden's approval slipped. Democrats now hope to shift the conversation, pointing to recent legislative wins and, more pointedly, to the Supreme Court's June decision overturning federal abortion protections.
A new CBS poll offers a hint that the ruling is working in their favor. Forty-one percent of respondents said women would lose rights under a Republican Congress, compared with 18 percent who said women would gain them. Among women surveyed, 71 percent said a candidate must share their views on abortion to earn their vote, a far higher share than those who said the same about the economy or immigration.
Other forecasters see similar movement. FiveThirtyEight now gives Republicans a 68 percent chance of taking the House, down from nearly 90 percent in the days before the ruling. The models still favor the GOP, but the question for the coming weeks is whether this shift holds as November approaches.
On Sunday, CBS News lowered its forecast for how many House seats Republicans will win in November, a small but telling shift in a race that has long been expected to favor the GOP. The network's model, which it runs with the polling firm YouGov, now puts Republicans at 223 seats. That is down from 226 in August and 230 in July.
The number still points to a Republican takeover. Either party needs 218 seats to control the House, and Democrats currently hold a razor-thin majority of 221. The model has not stopped predicting that Republicans will flip the chamber. What has changed is the size of the cushion it expects them to have.
History explains why Democrats have reason to worry. The president's party typically loses seats in a midterm election. That expectation hardened as inflation climbed to a 40-year high and President Biden's approval rating slipped, and Republicans have been widely predicted to retake the House for some time.
Democrats now hope to avoid a rout by changing the subject. They are pointing to a string of legislative victories and, more pointedly, to the Supreme Court's decision in June to overturn federal abortion protections. CBS released a new poll on Sunday that offers the latest sign the ruling may be helping them.
In that poll, 41 percent of respondents said women will have fewer rights and freedoms if Republicans control Congress. Only 18 percent said women will have more. Among women surveyed, 71 percent said a candidate must agree with them on abortion to earn their vote. Fewer women said the same about the economy or immigration, the two issues Republicans are counting on to carry them through the campaign.
CBS is not alone in seeing movement. Analysts generally suggest that Democrats' standing has improved in recent months. FiveThirtyEight's model, as of Sunday, gives Republicans a 68 percent chance of winning the House majority. In the days before the abortion ruling, that figure was nearly 90 percent.
The question for the weeks ahead is whether the trend holds. Democrats have gained ground, but the models still favor a Republican House, and the gap between 223 seats and the 218 needed leaves Republicans with a narrow but real margin as November approaches.
Citações Notáveis
71 percent of women surveyed said a candidate must agree with them on abortion to get their vote.— CBS News poll, released Sunday
Quer a matéria completa?
Leia o original em The Hill ↗
Politics & Governance