Carney speaks with Trump as 50% tariff deadline looms Wednesday

Prime Minister Mark Carney picked up the phone with Donald Trump on Monday afternoon, just three days before a tariff deadline that neither side has publicly resolved. The conversation happened as the clock ticked toward midnight Wednesday, when 50 percent tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods were set to take effect under a Trump executive order. The Prime Minister's Office confirmed the call took place but offered almost nothing else—only that it concerned "ongoing trade negotiations."

What those negotiations actually entail remains opaque. Carney described them publicly as "very intense and delicate," speaking in French to emphasize the gravity of the moment. He indicated that Ottawa was preparing contingency plans to "cover all eventualities" should the tariffs proceed as scheduled. The goods targeted by Trump's order span a wide range: cement, hockey sticks, and numerous other products that form the sinews of cross-border commerce. The specificity of the list—hockey sticks alongside industrial materials—underscores how deeply these tariffs would penetrate everyday trade.

On the same Monday, Canada's Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and chief trade negotiator Janice Charette sat down with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington. After those meetings, LeBlanc told reporters that the work would continue. "Our job is not yet done," he said, a phrase that suggested both determination and acknowledgment that no breakthrough had been announced. The language was careful—neither side was declaring victory or defeat.

Trump's rationale for the tariffs centers on what he characterizes as Canadian discrimination against American exports, particularly automobiles, alcohol, and cheese. He has also pointed to Canada's decision to impose retaliatory tariffs following U.S. levies imposed the previous year. Canada and China were the only countries to respond with their own tariffs, a fact Trump's team has emphasized as justification for escalation. Jamieson Greer, speaking to reporters in Iowa on Friday, framed the U.S. position bluntly: "If a country retaliates against us, we're obviously not going to tolerate that. We'll take action." He added that while he sensed Canada wanted "a more conciliatory approach," the outcome remained uncertain.

The tariff threat arrives amid broader renegotiation of CUSMA, the continental trade agreement binding Canada, the United States, and Mexico. That larger negotiation adds another layer of complexity to the immediate deadline. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, typically aligned with the Trump administration on trade matters, broke ranks on this issue. In a statement released Tuesday, the organization urged both governments to reach a deal that would avert the new tariffs. Neil Herrington, the Chamber's senior vice-president for the Americas, warned that higher tariffs would "damage both economies, drive up costs for U.S. families, further disrupt critical supply chains, and risk the 13 million American jobs that depend on trade" under the existing agreement. The Chamber's intervention suggested that even within the American business community, the costs of escalation were being weighed seriously.

As Wednesday approached, the outcome remained genuinely uncertain. Carney's phone call with Trump was a last-ditch effort to find common ground, but neither government had signaled any movement toward compromise. The tariffs were scheduled to take effect just after midnight, and unless a deal materialized in the final hours, Canadian exporters would wake to a fundamentally altered trade landscape.