Carney Says Canada Prepared for U.S. Military Action as 'Extreme Tail Risk'

Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times this week that he has examined the possibility of the United States launching a military invasion of Canada. He described the prospect as an "extreme tail risk"—the kind of event that would cause enormous damage but remains very unlikely—yet insisted it would be irresponsible not to prepare for it. When the Times reporter asked him directly about Canada's preparations, Carney paused for several seconds, clearly weighing his words carefully before responding that this was simply risk management, not a base case scenario.

The comments, published Wednesday, set off a chain of reactions across Ottawa's political establishment. Defence Minister David McGuinty moved quickly to normalize Carney's remarks, telling reporters Thursday that it is entirely "normal" for federal governments and militaries to analyze risk scenarios. When pressed for specifics about what those scenarios entailed, McGuinty declined to elaborate, saying the prime minister had indicated such details would not be made public. Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon echoed the same line, calling it "prudent" for any government to run through potential scenarios to ensure preparedness. Yet when asked what such preparations might actually look like, Solomon too refused to answer directly.

The political response was not uniform. Peter MacKay, a former defence and foreign affairs minister, called Carney's decision to discuss invasion preparations in the pages of the New York Times irresponsible. MacKay told CTV News that the comments seemed to shift the conversation "from the realm of retaliation to provocation," and he questioned the strategic wisdom of airing such concerns publicly when tensions with the United States were already elevated. He suggested instead that Canada should focus on returning to the negotiating table to discuss the removal of tariffs. Political analysts offered a different view. Eric Ham, a U.S. political analyst, said Carney was being prudent given what the United States has done in Venezuela and the escalating tensions around U.S. interest in controlling Greenland. Tom Mulcair, the former federal NDP leader, noted that Trump himself had previously stated he wanted to make Canada the 51st state, making such contingency planning a reasonable response to an explicit threat.

Trump, for his part, has previously downplayed the likelihood of military action against Canada. In May 2025, when asked by CBS News whether he would consider sending the military into Canada, Trump said he did not see it happening. "I think it's highly unlikely," he told the network. Yet on Wednesday, Trump posted on Truth Social that "Canada is destroying itself by allowing millions and millions of people into the Country" who were "essentially unchecked and unvetted." He also criticized Canada's unemployment rate, which stood at 6.4 percent in August compared to 4.1 percent in the United States. Statistics Canada, however, noted that the two countries calculate unemployment differently, and that a TD study from fall 2025 predicted Canada's rate would have been at least one percentage point higher without population growth slowdown. The data also contradicted Trump's immigration claims: Statistics Canada reported that immigration was down 4.2 percent year-over-year, and the number of non-permanent residents had declined 0.7 percent.

Carney's New York Times interview also revealed broader strategic shifts in Canadian policy. The prime minister said Canada is working to expand economic ties with China and reduce both its military and technological reliance on the United States, including dependence on Elon Musk's Starlink satellite systems. He is also overseeing a review of Canada's planned purchase of 88 U.S. F-35 fighter jets, with the possibility of buying Sweden's Saab Gripen fighters instead. Canada has already committed to buying 16 F-35s to replace its aging CF-18 Hornets, but Carney ordered the review of the remaining 72 aircraft after Trump announced tariffs on Canadian goods early last year. Notably, Canada's first F-35 took flight Wednesday in Fort Worth, Texas, at Lockheed Martin's final assembly plant—a historic milestone that passed with minimal public attention from Canada's military. The first jets are expected to arrive in Canada in 2028, with initial operational capability in 2029.

When asked about his political future, Carney indicated he was considering running for a second term if his work during his first term remained incomplete. He noted that much of what he has committed to—including major infrastructure and energy projects—will take another year and a half to two years to yield results Canadians would feel, placing the timeline "beyond" the current political cycle. With a majority government in hand, Carney appears positioned to pursue a longer-term agenda, one that includes not only military preparedness but also a fundamental recalibration of Canada's economic and security relationships.