Carney credits Trump with winning NATO defense spending argument

Mark Carney arrived at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey on Wednesday with an acknowledgment that surprised observers who had watched him spend months attacking the American president. The Canadian Prime Minister told reporters that Donald Trump had "won the argument" on defense spending—a concession that cut against years of public friction between the two leaders over tariffs, trade, and Trump's repeated suggestions that Canada should become a U.S. state.

Carney had called Trump before the gathering and found him in what he described as a good mood. In their conversation, the Canadian leader conveyed a message he now shared openly: NATO members increasingly understand they need to spend more on defense. The security threats from Russia are direct and visible. The shift in burden-sharing within the alliance, which Trump has demanded for years, is not just happening—it is gaining momentum. "It's not just that he's winning the argument—he's won the argument," Carney said.

This represented a notable pivot. Just sixteen months earlier, during his victory speech in March 2025, Carney had accused Trump of imposing "unjustified tariffs" on Canada and declared that the president was "attacking Canadian families, workers and businesses." He had vowed to maintain retaliatory tariffs until the Americans showed respect. The trade war between the two countries remained unresolved. Yet on the specific question of NATO spending, Carney was granting Trump a win.

The numbers backing that concession are substantial. At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, alliance leaders committed to spending 5 percent of GDP on defense and security by 2035—more than double the alliance's longstanding 2 percent target. This pledge followed years of Trump warning that European nations were freeloading on American security guarantees, threatening at times to withdraw the U.S. from NATO entirely if allies did not significantly increase spending. What multiple American presidents since Eisenhower had attempted, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte acknowledged, Trump had finally accomplished.

Canada itself announced a series of new defense investments during the summit week. The country committed to a submarine procurement program, an agreement to use Telesat's Lightspeed satellite constellation for secure Arctic military communications, and an approximately $800 million contract for Joint Strike Missiles for its future fighter aircraft. These investments reflect a broader trajectory: Canada was spending about 1.4 percent of GDP on defense when Carney's government took office and is now on track to reach 4 percent by the end of the decade under NATO's accounting standards.

But the alliance faces a compliance problem. NATO has no formal mechanism to force countries to meet their commitments. Instead, Trump has increasingly relied on economic leverage. On Wednesday, he singled out Spain for refusing to commit to the 5 percent target, calling the country "a terrible partner in NATO" and urging the U.S. to cut off trade and tourism with Spain. Madrid has argued it can meet NATO's military capability requirements while spending roughly 2.1 percent of GDP on defense. Larger nations like Britain and France have pledged to move toward the 5 percent goal but currently spend well below it, raising questions about how aggressively the Trump administration will enforce its new standard.

NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker indicated the administration was considering countermeasures for countries that fail to meet the 5 percent target. The threat is real, even if the mechanism remains unclear. Carney's acknowledgment that Trump has won the argument on spending suggests the pressure is working—at least on the question of whether allies should contribute more. Whether they will actually do so, and what consequences await those who do not, remains to be tested.