Canavan to Run in Capricornia as Hanson and Ashby Rule Out Challenge

On Monday, standing in front of reporters in Queensland, Matt Canavan said he was prepared to gamble his career. The Nationals leader confirmed he will leave the Senate and run for the lower house seat of Capricornia at the next federal election. "I might not be successful. My political career may die, but I'm not going to die wondering," he said.

The announcement followed news that Michelle Landry, the sitting MP, will not recontest the seat. Her retirement set off speculation that Capricornia, which takes in Rockhampton, could become a close fight with Pauline Hanson's national director, James Ashby. Canavan said someone needed to step up in central Queensland, and that he was willing to put his political future on the line to deliver that and, in his words, take the country back.

Ashby has now removed that prospect. In a statement, he said he would play a role in the campaign in Capricornia but would not nominate at preselection, because he takes his position as national director seriously. One Nation will still field a candidate. Ashby called Capricornia a seat the party can win and said he intends to throw resources and people behind a strong campaign.

Hanson, who sits in the Senate, had earlier ruled herself out of running for the seat. She was less definitive about Ashby, telling reporters it was still a year to a year and a half before the election and that she was not making decisions or giving any indication of where she or Ashby, if he stood, might run.

Canavan had been tipped to make a lower house bid for some time. Pollsters had warned that the Nationals leader had a "0%" chance of keeping his Senate spot if One Nation maintained its surge in opinion polls. Last month he said he was prepared to do "whatever it takes" to hold Capricornia for his party.

The seat is huge, covering more than 91,000 square kilometres. It is held by the Liberal National party on a margin of 5.8%, which is normally considered safe. Analysts, though, regard regional Coalition seats in Queensland and New South Wales as especially vulnerable. The latest Guardian Essential poll, of 1,087 Australians and conducted in late October, had Labor and One Nation tied on 28% of the primary vote each.

The opposition leader, Angus Taylor, said he was very pleased Canavan was "throwing his hat in the ring." He said everyone was putting it all on the line because they had to, because the country needed to be taken back.

The Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie pointed the criticism at One Nation. Speaking on Nine's Today show, she said that if the party was serious about "firing the liar," it should run in Labor seats rather than against someone like Canavan.

With the election still more than a year away, Capricornia now looks like an early test of how far One Nation's polling can reach into regional Coalition territory, and of whether Canavan's move saves or ends his career.