In the quiet rhythm of a long political career, a veteran National has stepped aside from the seat she carried for years, opening a space that others now eye with ambition and anxiety. Michelle Landry's decision in Capricornia, a Queensland electorate around Rockhampton, sets in motion a question about who will claim it, and whether the rising strength of One Nation will reshape the old contest between the Coalition parties. Beneath the speculation lies a simple arithmetic of ballots and fear: a senator's future may depend on whether he is willing to walk downstairs into the lower house.
Canavan Eyes Lower House Switch as Landry Quits Capricornia Amid One Nation Surge
Canavan goes from a 0% chance as a senator to potentially winning downstairs
Mark
Why does Landry leaving matter beyond one seat?
Mimi
Because it may open a door for Canavan. He has said he'd do whatever it takes to hold a lower house seat, and Capricornia is suddenly vacant.
Luke
But he hasn't said he'll run there. He shrugged off the question and didn't rule it out. That's all we have.
Mark
What's the case that his Senate seat is in danger?
Mimi
Redbridge's Kos Samaras says that on current polling, One Nation could win extra Queensland Senate seats, likely at the expense of the second LNP name, which is Canavan.
Luke
Worth saying that's one pollster's reading, and the 'zero per cent' line is conditional on the surge holding. Samaras himself talks about volatility and says things can change.
Mark
What does the wider polling show?
Mimi
A Guardian Essential poll last month had One Nation on 25%, Labor 29%, and the Coalition at a record low of 22%.
Luke
And the 59-seat figure is a Redbridge analysis from May, not a prediction from the ballot box. Also, the 2028 Senate contest is a long way off.
Mark
Did Landry say she was pushed?
Mimi
She denied it, and wouldn't name a successor. Her sharpest words were for One Nation and the idea of Hanson parachuting in.
Luke
Whether Hanson actually runs there is still speculation. Nothing confirmed.
Le Pouls
- Michelle Landry's surprise departure from Capricornia has ignited a scramble among Nationals and One Nation figures over who will fill the vacancy.
- Matt Canavan has refused to rule out switching from the Senate, declaring he would do 'whatever it takes' to hold a lower house seat.
- A Redbridge pollster warns that One Nation's surge could strip Canavan's Senate seat entirely in 2028, leaving him with a zero per cent chance on current numbers.
- National polling shows One Nation at 25 per cent and the Coalition at an all-time low of 22 per cent, with Queensland seen as fertile ground for Hanson's party.
- Polling volatility keeps the outcome open, and the party's next moves in Capricornia remain unsettled.
In the quiet rhythm of a long political career, a veteran National has stepped aside from the seat she carried for years, opening a space that others now eye with ambition and anxiety. Michelle Landry's decision in Capricornia, a Queensland electorate around Rockhampton, sets in motion a question about who will claim it, and whether the rising strength of One Nation will reshape the old contest between the Coalition parties. Beneath the speculation lies a simple arithmetic of ballots and fear: a senator's future may depend on whether he is willing to walk downstairs into the lower house.
On Friday, Michelle Landry stood beside Matt Canavan at a press conference and announced she would not contest Capricornia, the Queensland seat around Rockhampton she had held for the Nationals for years. Asked whether Canavan would take it over, the party leader shrugged off the question and did not rule it out. Landry denied she had been pushed aside to make room for another National, and she declined to guess who might replace her.
Her exit has stirred speculation about two figures: Canavan and One Nation's Pauline Hanson. Canavan had already fueled the talk on Sky News, saying he would do whatever it takes to keep a lower house seat. Coalition leader Angus Taylor declined to speculate, calling Canavan an extraordinary colleague.
The pressure behind the rumours is arithmetic. Canavan is a Queensland senator facing re-election in 2028, and Redbridge's Kos Samaras says that if One Nation's surge holds, it could take a seat most likely from the second LNP name on the ticket, which is Canavan. On current polling, Samaras put his chances of keeping the Senate seat at zero per cent, though a switch to Capricornia would still be difficult.
The national numbers are stark, with One Nation at 25 per cent and the Coalition at a record low. Landry, in her farewell, called One Nation's cartoon videos obnoxious and said its members needed to pull their heads in. Samaras cautioned that polling is volatile and that Queensland's state LNP government is doing well. For now, the open questions are who the Nationals will field in Capricornia and whether Hanson will run there.
On Friday, Michelle Landry stood beside Matt Canavan at a press conference and announced she will not recontest Capricornia, the Queensland seat around Rockhampton that she has held for the Nationals. Canavan, who leads the party, was asked whether he would be the one to take it over. He shrugged off the questions. He did not rule it out.
Landry is a veteran National MP, and her exit has set off a round of speculation about two people: Canavan, and One Nation's Pauline Hanson. Landry denied she had been pushed out to make room for another Nationals member. She also declined to guess who might replace her.
Canavan's own words earlier this month have fed the talk. Speaking to Sky News, he said he would do "whatever it takes" to hold Capricornia, and that if it was required to keep one more lower house seat somewhere, he would do it. At a separate press conference, the Coalition leader, Angus Taylor, was also asked about a Canavan switch. He declined to speculate and called Canavan an "extraordinary colleague."
The reason for the talk is arithmetic, according to Kos Samaras, a director at the polling group Redbridge. Canavan is a Queensland senator up for re-election in 2028. Also up in the state are two Labor senators, one Greens senator, Hanson herself, and two LNP members: James McGrath and Canavan. If One Nation's surge holds, Samaras said, the party could win one or more extra Senate seats, most likely at the expense of the second name on the LNP ticket. That is Canavan. Samaras put it bluntly: Canavan has a "zero per cent" chance of holding his Senate seat on current polling. He said Canavan goes "from a 0% chance" to potentially winning in Capricornia. That would still be difficult because of One Nation, he said, but Canavan would be in a better position "going downstairs."
The national numbers behind that view are stark. Last month's Guardian Essential poll had One Nation on a 25% primary vote, Labor on 29%, and the Coalition at an all-time low of 22%. Samaras also pointed to a large Redbridge analysis from May that showed Hanson's party winning up to 59 seats nationally, mostly from the Liberals and Nationals. He called it a complete wipeout of the Coalition. "On current polling, they'll win nearly every seat the LNP holds in Queensland," he said, Senate spots included. "If there's a state in this country that's good for One Nation, it's Queensland."
Landry used her farewell to take a shot at the party. Asked about the idea of Hanson running in Capricornia, she said most of her dealings with One Nation over the years had not been very pleasant. She called the party's cartoon videos "obnoxious" and said its members "need to pull their heads in." She added that when people move into an area to run for political office, "it doesn't usually end well."
Samaras was careful about how far the numbers go. He noted considerable volatility in polling nationwide, and that Queensland's state LNP government is polling well. "Things can change," he said.
For now, the questions are who the Nationals will put forward in Capricornia and whether Hanson will contest it. Canavan has left his options open.
Citations marquantes
On current polling, they'll win nearly every seat the LNP holds in Queensland.— Kos Samaras, Redbridge
I think they need to pull their heads in.— Michelle Landry, on One Nation
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