Californians back billionaire tax and measures designed to block it

California voters are heading into November with a peculiar ballot problem: they say they want to tax billionaires, but they also say they want to block that tax. A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California found that 52% of likely voters support Proposition 40, a one-time 5% levy on the state's billionaires. Yet the same voters are backing two competing measures designed to invalidate it—Proposition 41 at 51% support and Proposition 42 at 54%—creating a scenario where the measure with the most voter enthusiasm could still lose.

Proposition 40 emerged from the Service Employees International Union's healthcare workers division as an emergency response to federal Medicaid cuts under President Trump's administration. The state's Legislative Analyst's Office projects the tax would generate tens of billions of dollars over several years for healthcare and food assistance programs. But the measure faces fierce opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom and both major-party candidates running to replace him, who argue that taxing billionaires will simply accelerate their departure to other states and damage California's economy.

The real threat to Proposition 40, however, may not come from direct opposition but from these two alternative measures. Proposition 41, backed by a group called Building a Better California and funded substantially by Google co-founder Sergey Brin, would require the state auditor to review any proposed special taxes before they reach the ballot and strike down those that violate state spending limits. Proposition 42, also supported by Brin's group, would prohibit new state personal property taxes, including levies on retirement accounts and investment assets. Both measures poll above 50%, suggesting they could pass alongside Proposition 40.

If all three measures pass, California law requires that Proposition 40 receive more yes votes than either Proposition 41 or 42 to take effect. This creates an unusual dynamic where voter support for a measure is not enough to guarantee its survival. Mark Baldassare, the survey director for the Public Policy Institute of California, noted the strategic problem facing Proposition 40's supporters: "The supporters of Prop. 40 have to think about and perhaps do something about the fact that so many people are supporting 41 and 42. Therein lies the problem when you have measures and countermeasures on the ballot."

The poll surveyed 1,103 likely voters between September 4 and 10 and carried a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. Beyond the billionaire tax fight, the survey revealed shifting sentiment on other measures. Proposition 45, which would streamline environmental review for major infrastructure projects by capping review periods at 365 days, saw support collapse from 73% in July to just 49% in the latest poll. Baldassare attributed the drop partly to the fuller ballot description voters received this time, which included fiscal impacts potentially exceeding $100 million and listed the measure's opponents—including the Coalition for Clean Air and the National Wildlife Federation. The opposition campaign's arguments about environmental risks also likely influenced the shift.

Three bond measures on the ballot are performing strongly. Proposition 1, authorizing $11.25 billion for housing affordability programs, has 55% support. Proposition 37, which would allocate $25 billion to help middle-income homebuyers secure fixed-rate mortgages covering up to 17% of purchase prices for new construction, has 61% support. Proposition 38, authorizing $8.4 billion for immunology research, has 55% support. Baldassare observed that voters appear willing to approve spending measures that don't immediately affect their tax bills, particularly on housing, which remains a defining issue for California voters.

Two other measures failed to reach majority support. Proposition 39, which would require voter identification in future elections, polled at 43%, with stark partisan divides: 85% of Republicans supported it while only 19% of Democrats did. Proposition 43, which would raise the threshold for passing citizen-initiated special taxes from a simple majority to two-thirds, also registered 43% support. The poll also found that 77% of likely voters believe there are too many measures on the November ballot.

In the gubernatorial race, Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health Secretary, maintains a commanding lead with 60% support among likely voters. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, received 38% support. The November election will test whether California voters can navigate the contradictions their own polling reveals—whether they truly want to tax billionaires, whether they want to stop that tax, or whether the competing measures will simply cancel each other out.