California Voters Reject First-of-Its-Kind Billionaire Wealth Tax in Costly Ballot Fight

California faces an estimated $100 billion loss in federal health-care funding over five years, which the proposed tax was meant to partly offset.
The money ran the other way: roughly ten to one against the tax.
Opponents of Proposition 40 raised about 10 times what supporters did, led by Sergey Brin's $100 million-plus.
Mark

Why does this vote matter beyond California?

Mimi

It was the first real test of a wealth tax at the ballot box in the U.S. Progressives have argued for it for years, and now there's a result to point to.

Mark

And the result was lopsided in spending, at least.

Mimi

The "no" side raised about 10 times as much. Building a Better California took in more than $333 million, nearly a third from Sergey Brin, who gave over $100 million himself.

Luke

Careful with what that proves. The source tells us the spending gap, not that spending decided the outcome. And it doesn't give the vote margin.

Mark

Fair. What about the opposition from Planned Parenthood and the California Medical Association?

Mimi

That's the interesting part. They're normally Democratic allies. Their stated worries were how the money would be split and what a wealthy-taxpayer exodus would do to the budget.

Luke

Note that the exodus is a concern they raised, not something shown. Brin and Page did begin cutting ties, but that's a few individuals reacting to a possible tax.

Mark

And the $100 billion figure?

Luke

That's the health-care union's estimate of lost federal funding over five years. It's the supporters' number, so I'd treat it as one side's estimate.

Mimi

What's confirmed is the politics: Newsom opposed it, backs a national minimum tax on those worth over $100 million, and now faces ads in early primary states.

Luke

Whether those ads move anyone in 2028 is unknown.

  • Voters rejected a one-time five per cent levy on billionaire net worth, ending a ballot fight that landed like a stone in the tech world.
  • Opponents raised roughly ten times what supporters did, with Sergey Brin alone giving more than $100 million to a committee that reached $333 million.
  • Billionaires moved quickly: Brin and Larry Page began cutting ties with California, while Mark Zuckerberg pledged eight years in the state and arranged a Meta deal to cover his tax.
  • Planned Parenthood and the California Medical Association broke with their usual Democratic allies, warning of a budget-crippling exodus and calling the plan a reckless experiment.
  • The vote steadies Gov. Newsom's presidential calculations, yet supporters are already running ads in New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia to contest his position before the 2028 primaries.

On a November day when Californians weighed the limits of what a state can ask of its richest residents, voters turned down Proposition 40, a first-of-its-kind one-time five per cent tax on fortunes above $1 billion. The measure had been born of a stark arithmetic: an estimated $100 billion in federal health-care funding that the state expects to lose over five years, and a long progressive conviction that wealth itself, not only wages, should bear the burden of common needs. Yet the campaign also revealed how unevenly a democratic argument can be funded, as opponents outspent supporters roughly tenfold. The outcome leaves open a question older than this ballot, namely whether a single state can tax its fortunes without watching them leave, and it places Gov. Gavin Newsom and the national debate over wealth taxation at a threshold they have not yet crossed.

California voters have turned down Proposition 40, a one-time tax of five per cent on the net worth of billionaires, closing a ballot fight that drew enormous sums from prominent figures in the tech industry. Ballots were counted after Nov. 3.

The measure would have been the first of its kind in the country. Most of the money was meant to replace federal health-care cuts that California expects to cost it an estimated $100 billion over five years, with a tenth set aside for education and food assistance. Supporters saw it as a chance to tax the investments that make the ultra-rich wealthy, not only their paychecks. Bernie Sanders campaigned for it across the state in the final weeks.

The money, however, ran the other way. The opposition raised about ten times what the supporters did, and a committee backing the 'no' side collected more than $333 million, with Google co-founder Sergey Brin contributing over $100 million himself. Some billionaires began moving before the vote: Brin and Larry Page started cutting ties with the state, while Mark Zuckerberg pledged to stay for eight years and arranged a deal with Meta to pay the tax without giving up his stake.

Opposition reached beyond the wealthy. Planned Parenthood and the California Medical Association joined the coalition, worried about how the revenue would be divided and about losing the rich taxpayers the state budget depends on. A voter near Sacramento summed up a common feeling: he wished billionaires had less money, but doubted that taxing them out of existence would work.

For Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is weighing a 2028 presidential run and opposed the measure, the result is a relief. Yet the debate is not finished. Supporters have begun running ads in New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia, early primary states, criticizing his stance.

California voters have turned down Proposition 40, a one-time tax on the net worth of the state's billionaires, ending a ballot fight that drew enormous spending from some of the most prominent figures in the tech industry. Voting concluded on Nov. 3.

The measure would have levied a single five per cent tax on the wealth of Californians with a net worth above $1 billion US. No state in the country has done anything like it. Most of the money would have gone to backfill federal cuts to health care, with 10 per cent set aside for education and food-assistance programs. SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, the state's health-care union, argued the tax was needed to replace an estimated $100 billion US that California is expected to lose in federal health-care funding over five years.

Proposition 40 was the largest test yet of an idea progressives have pushed for years: taxing the ultra-rich on the thing that actually makes them rich, their investments, rather than on a paycheque. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont senator, lent his weight to the campaign and held rallies in cities across California in the closing weeks. Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have long backed a federal wealth tax.

The money, though, ran the other way. The "no" side raised roughly 10 times as much as the "yes" side. A political action committee called Building a Better California, which also backed other ballot measures designed to nullify the tax, raised more than $333 million US, nearly a third of it from Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Brin alone put more than $100 million US into the effort.

Some billionaires acted before the vote. Brin and fellow Google co-founder Larry Page began cutting ties with California in anticipation of the possible tax. Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg said he would stay in the state for eight years, and struck a deal with Meta to help him pay the tax without giving up his ownership stake in the company.

Opposition was not limited to the very wealthy. Planned Parenthood and the California Medical Association, both usually Democratic allies, joined a coalition against the measure. They worried about how the revenue would be divided and about what a mass exodus of wealthy taxpayers would do to the state budget, which leans heavily on income taxes paid by its richest residents. The coalition called the proposal "a reckless experiment conducted on our state's economy with little regard for the harms it would cause."

Robert Swonger, an independent voter and auto glass technician near Sacramento, said before the vote that he planned to vote no. "Obviously, I would like billionaires not to have as much money as they do," he said, but he did not believe "taxing them out of existence is going to work."

The result is a win for Democratic leaders who opposed the tax, among them Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is deciding whether to run for president in 2028. Newsom has said a California wealth tax would put the state at a disadvantage, though he supports a national minimum tax on anyone worth more than $100 million US. Days before Sanders's rallies, he told reporters the senator's focus on wealth inequality was "spot-on," but that "on this issue, we fundamentally disagree."

The fight may not be over for Newsom. Supporters of the tax have recently started running ads criticizing his opposition in New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia, states that will vote early in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary.

Proposition 40 was a reckless experiment conducted on our state's economy with little regard for the harms it would cause.
— Coalition opposing the measure
Obviously, I would like billionaires not to have as much money as they do, but I don't believe taxing them out of existence is going to work.
— Robert Swonger, independent voter near Sacramento
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