Once again the Pacific is reminding California that the land and the sea answer to the same restless weather. A string of storms, nudged along by a strengthening El Niño and by coastal waters running warmer than usual, is set to bring the season's first real soaking to much of the state, with the heaviest rain and the most dangerous surf concentrated in the north. For a place that has spent long dry months watching its hills turn to tinder, the arrival of water is both relief and a reminder that abundance here always comes with its own hazards.
California Braces for Back-to-Back Storms as El Niño Brings Heavy Rain, Snow and Waves Up to 60 Feet
"We're in an active pattern," and the third storm has no arrival date yet.
Mark
Why does this storm matter if the rain totals aren't huge?
Mimi
Because it's the first widespread soaking of the season, and it comes with a strengthening El Niño. Up to six inches on the North Coast, two in the Bay Area, under an inch in Los Angeles. It's the start of a pattern more than a single event.
Luke
Worth saying that El Niño makes wet winters more likely, not certain. The reporting says some of the state's wettest winters came in strong El Niños, which isn't a promise about this one.
Mark
What's the danger people should actually think about?
Mimi
The surf. Ocean Beach could see more than 40 feet, Mavericks 60 or higher, and an unexpected wave can pull someone off shore quickly. Garcia's advice was to watch webcams and stay away from the water.
Luke
Those wave heights are forecasts, and the article gives them as what experts expect. We don't yet know what actually arrives.
Mark
And the benefits?
Mimi
Reservoirs and rivers get replenished, and the ground is wet enough to ease wildfire risk. Flooding risk is predicted to be low.
Luke
Experts say the wildfire reduction is real but the piece doesn't quantify it or say how long it lasts.
Mark
What's still open?
Mimi
The third storm next week. Forecasters couldn't say on Thursday when it would arrive.
Luke
Right, so timing and strength of anything beyond the second storm is unknown.
O Pulso
- Back-to-back storms are rolling in from the Pacific, delivering California's first statewide soaking of the season.
- Waves could top 40 feet at Ocean Beach and 60 feet or higher at Mavericks, turning the coast into a zone of real danger.
- Commuters face slick roads and branches that could snap from trees dried out by summer heat, while mountain passes brace for their first significant snow.
- Reservoirs and parched landscapes are expected to drink deeply, easing wildfire risk, though a third storm looms with its arrival still uncertain.
Once again the Pacific is reminding California that the land and the sea answer to the same restless weather. A string of storms, nudged along by a strengthening El Niño and by coastal waters running warmer than usual, is set to bring the season's first real soaking to much of the state, with the heaviest rain and the most dangerous surf concentrated in the north. For a place that has spent long dry months watching its hills turn to tinder, the arrival of water is both relief and a reminder that abundance here always comes with its own hazards.
The first storm is expected to reach the North Bay late Thursday night, and by Friday morning rain and gusty wind will be moving across the Bay Area. It opens a run of storms over the coming week, the first sustained stretch of widespread wet weather this season. Forecasters point to the familiar causes: unusually warm ocean water and a strengthening El Niño, a climate pattern that tends to make California winters wetter and can raise sea levels enough to cause flooding.
These storms are not expected to bring record totals, but they should give the state its first statewide soaking. The North Coast could see up to six inches over the week, the Bay Area up to two, and Los Angeles less than an inch. By the time the rain reaches Southern California it will have weakened considerably. In the Bay Area, the National Weather Service warns that the first real rain of the season will make roads slick and could knock branches from trees left brittle by the summer.
The ocean is the larger worry. Waves are forecast to reach 25 feet along parts of the Central Coast, more than 40 feet at Ocean Beach, and 60 feet or higher at Mavericks. Forecasters urge people to watch beach webcams from home and keep well away from the water, since a single unexpected wave can pull a person off shore. In the Sierra Nevada, the weekend should bring a foot or more of snow, with winter storm warnings in effect and travel delays likely on mountain roads.
The rain is expected to refill reservoirs and rivers and dampen the land enough to lower wildfire danger, with flood risk judged low. Yet the pattern is far from over. Another storm may cross the state between Sunday and Tuesday, and a third could arrive next week, though forecasters cannot yet say when. "We're in an active pattern," one meteorologist said.
The first storm is due in the North Bay as early as late Thursday night, and by Friday morning intermittent rain and blustery wind are expected across the Bay Area. It is the start of a string of storms forecast to move through California over the next week, the first prolonged stretch of widespread wet weather of the season.
The setup is a familiar one for forecasters. Waters off the California coast are unusually warm, and El Niño is still strengthening. The climate pattern scrambles weather worldwide, often makes California winters wetter than normal, and raises sea levels enough to cause flooding. Some of the state's wettest winters have come during strong El Niños like this one.
The two storms coming now are not expected to produce showstopping rainfall totals, but they could bring the first statewide soaking along with strong winds. Most of the rain will fall in the north. The North Coast could see up to six inches over the week, the San Francisco Bay Area up to two inches, and Los Angeles likely less than an inch. Rain should spread south through Friday and probably reach the Los Angeles area by evening. Chad Hecht, a meteorologist at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California, San Diego, said that by the time the storm gets to Los Angeles, it is on the weaker end.
Brian Garcia, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office serving the Bay Area, said commuters should prepare for a wet and possibly frustrating Friday. This is the first real rain of the season there, he said, and any rain makes roads slippery. He also warned that the wind could snap branches off trees that dried out during the hot summer and early fall.
The larger concern is the ocean. The storms will stir up the Pacific and send powerful waves ashore this weekend, with the most dangerous conditions expected in Northern California. Waves could reach eight to 12 feet in Los Angeles and San Diego and go higher farther north. Some Central California beaches could see 25-foot waves, and Ocean Beach in San Francisco could see more than 40 feet. At Mavericks, the well-known surf spot 20 miles south of San Francisco, waves are expected to reach 60 feet or higher. An unexpectedly large wave can quickly drag someone standing on shore into turbulent water. Garcia's advice was to check beach webcams from home and stay away from the saltwater entirely.
In the Sierra Nevada, the weekend storms should bring the first significant snow of the season: roughly half a foot to more than a foot through Sunday morning. The Weather Service has issued winter storm warnings across the range, including the Tahoe area from Friday morning to Saturday afternoon. Travel delays are expected on mountain roads through the weekend, with the heaviest snowfall on the passes forecast for Friday afternoon and evening. El Niño is expected to give the region more snow than normal this winter.
Experts said the rain will replenish reservoirs and rivers and wet the landscape enough to reduce wildfire danger. The risk of flooding is predicted to be low.
The pattern is not finished after the weekend. After a short break, another storm is expected to cross the state between Sunday and Tuesday, again with the heaviest rain in the north. A third storm is likely next week, though as of Thursday forecasters could not say when it would arrive. "We're in an active pattern," Hecht said.
Citações Notáveis
This is the first real rain of the season for the Bay Area, and any rain is going to cause slippery roads.— Brian Garcia, National Weather Service meteorologist
We're in an active pattern.— Chad Hecht, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, UC San Diego
Quer a matéria completa?
Leia o original em The New York Times ↗