Byron Donalds Projected to Become Florida's First Black Governor, and the Nation's First Black Republican Governor

On Tuesday night, the Fox News Decision Desk projected that Rep. Byron Donalds had won Florida's race for governor, defeating Democrat David Jolly in what the network described as a close contest. If the projection holds, Donalds becomes the first Black person elected governor of Florida and the first Black Republican elected governor anywhere in the United States.

Donalds, a three-term congressman from southwest Florida, will succeed Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited. He will take charge of the nation's third most populous state. In a victory statement posted to X, he said he was humbled and grateful beyond measure, and promised to make life in Florida more affordable, keep the streets safe, and invest in young people so they can reach what he called the Florida Dream. He described Florida as the envy of the nation and said he would fight day and night to keep it that way.

Continuing and building on DeSantis's conservative agenda was a central part of his pitch. So was his closeness to President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in February of last year, before Donalds had formally entered the race. He then declared his candidacy during an appearance on Fox News' "Hannity." In August, with Trump's backing, he won nearly half the vote in the Republican primary, beating a crowded field that included Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner, and business executive James Fishback.

The general election was not without friction over Trump. In late September, Donalds drew attention when some references to the president were scrubbed from his campaign website, at a time when Trump's approval ratings were continuing to decline.

Donalds is a New York City native who came to Florida for college. He worked in finance, insurance, and banking before entering politics. A one-time Democrat, he became a Republican in 2010 during the Tea Party movement. He was elected to the Florida House in 2016, served two terms, and then won his seat in Congress.

Jolly's path ran the other way. A Florida native, he was a top advisor to then-Rep. Bill Young and worked as a lawyer and lobbyist before winning a special congressional election in March 2014. He won a full term later that year, then lost re-election in 2016. Afterward he became a vocal Trump critic and cable news political commentator, left the Republican Party in 2018, and became a Democrat last year before launching his run for governor.

The campaign turned sharp on the question of socialism. Donalds repeatedly claimed Jolly embraced "radical socialism." Jolly told Fox News two weeks ago, "Byron Donalds is a liar," adding that he has condemned socialism in the Democratic Socialists of America hundreds of times and that Donalds knows it.

The closeness of the result stands out against recent history. Florida was once the largest general election battleground, but it has moved right over the past decade. DeSantis won re-election in 2022 by nearly 20 points, and Trump carried the state by 13 in 2024. Republicans hold a registered-voter advantage of roughly 1.5 million. Even so, Democrats have become competitive again, helped by a rough political climate for the GOP. What to watch now is how Donalds governs a state that is still red but no longer reliably lopsided, and what the margin signals about Republican strength heading forward.