Financial stocks had been left behind; mining stocks were waiting for the world to remember why metals matter.
En un año marcado por la recuperación económica y la incertidumbre geopolítica, la Bolsa de Valores de Lima encontró su impulso en dos sectores que, por razones distintas, estaban listos para avanzar. Las acciones financieras reflejaron el regreso del crecimiento interno, mientras que las mineras respondieron a un mundo que volvió a buscar refugio en los metales. Juntos, estos movimientos revelan cómo los mercados no solo anticipan el futuro, sino que también saldan deudas con el pasado.
- Las acciones financieras acumulaban años de rezago frente a los fundamentos reales de la economía peruana, creando una tensión entre valor y precio que finalmente se resolvió con alzas de 35,8%.
- El regreso de Donald Trump a la Casa Blanca y las tensiones geopolíticas globales dispararon la demanda de oro y plata como refugios ante la inflación, impulsando al sector minero un 12,8%.
- Southern Copper, Ferreycorp, Credicorp e IFS lideraron las ganancias individuales, respaldadas por un crecimiento real de utilidades corporativas del 28% en el año.
- La demanda de cobre sigue firme gracias a la transición tecnológica y energética global, ofreciendo una base sólida para el desempeño minero más allá de los metales preciosos.
- Con el PIB peruano creciendo más del 3% tras la contracción de 2023, el mercado bursátil no especuló: simplemente reconoció una economía que había comenzado a sanar.
La Bolsa de Valores de Lima cerró 2024 con dos sectores dominando el palmarés: el financiero, con un alza de 35,8% en dólares, y el minero, con un avance de 12,8%. La brecha entre ambos no es un accidente, sino el reflejo de dinámicas muy distintas que confluyeron en el mismo año favorable.
Daniel Guzmán, de Credicorp Capital, señaló que los bancos y financieras simplemente acompañaron la recuperación del país: cuando Perú creció más del 3% tras contraerse en 2023, el crédito fluyó y los negocios se expandieron. Pero había algo más: las acciones financieras habían estado subvaloradas durante años, y los inversores que las habían abandonado comenzaron a regresar, cerrando la brecha entre precio y realidad.
El sector minero siguió otra lógica. El oro y la plata se consolidaron como coberturas ante la inflación en un contexto de incertidumbre: el regreso de Trump a la presidencia estadounidense avivó temores sobre presiones de precios, y las tensiones geopolíticas empujaron capitales hacia activos refugio. El cobre, por su parte, mantuvo una demanda sostenida alimentada por la transición energética y tecnológica global.
En términos concretos, Southern Copper lideró con un retorno del 34%, seguido por Ferreycorp con 30% y Credicorp e IFS con 28% cada uno. Detrás de estas cifras hay algo más que optimismo: las utilidades del conjunto de empresas seguidas por Credicorp Capital crecieron un 28% en el año, dándole a los precios bursátiles una base real sobre la cual ascender. El mercado, en definitiva, no hizo más que reconocer lo que la economía ya estaba mostrando.
Peru's stock market had a year defined by two clear winners. The Lima Stock Exchange saw its financial sector climb 35.8% in dollar terms, while mining stocks rose 12.8%—a gap that tells a story about how different parts of the economy recover at different speeds. The gains came as the country itself turned a corner: after contracting in 2023, Peru's economy grew just over 3% this year, a shift that rippled through the market in ways both obvious and subtle.
Daniel Guzmán, head of brokerage operations at Credicorp Capital, explained the financial sector's outsized performance with a simple observation: banks and financial companies move in lockstep with the real economy. When the country starts growing again, people borrow, businesses expand, and financial institutions profit. But there was another factor at play. Bank stocks had lagged badly in previous years—they were cheap relative to what the underlying businesses were actually worth. As confidence returned, investors who had written off the sector began buying back in, pushing prices higher as the gap between valuation and reality narrowed.
The mining sector's gains came from a different source: the metals themselves. Gold and silver held strong throughout 2024, with gold emerging as the preferred hedge against inflation in a world suddenly uncertain about what comes next. Donald Trump's return to the White House raised questions about whether U.S. price pressures might spike, making precious metals more attractive to investors seeking shelter. Geopolitical tensions added another layer of demand—when the world feels unstable, money flows toward gold. Copper, the industrial metal that powers everything from power grids to electric vehicles, also benefited from sustained appetite driven by the technology sector's hunger for the material.
When you look at individual stocks, the picture sharpens. Southern Copper led the way with a 34% return. Ferreycorp followed at 30%, while Credicorp and IFS each gained 28%. These weren't isolated wins. Across the companies that Credicorp Capital tracks on the Lima exchange, earnings grew 28% for the year. That kind of profit growth gives stock prices something real to climb toward—it's not speculation or sentiment alone, but actual business performance improving.
What emerges from these numbers is a market catching up to itself. Financial stocks had been left behind; mining stocks had been waiting for the world to remember why metals matter. Both got their moment in 2024, and both were rewarded by investors who had been waiting for exactly this kind of clarity.
Notable Quotes
Financial companies are closely tied to the real economy. After last year's contraction, this year's growth helped certain sectors like finance begin to rise.— Daniel Guzmán, Credicorp Capital
Bank and financial company stock valuations had lagged significantly behind economic fundamentals, creating room for recovery.— Daniel Guzmán, Credicorp Capital
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why did financial stocks outpace mining stocks so dramatically—35.8% versus 12.8%—if both sectors were benefiting from the same economic recovery?
They weren't really benefiting from the same thing. Financial stocks were catching up to a reality that had already arrived—Peru's economy was growing, but the stocks hadn't priced that in yet. Mining stocks, by contrast, were already fairly valued based on metal prices. The financial sector had more room to run because it had been left behind.
So you're saying financial stocks were just cheap?
Exactly. When a country's economy contracts, people lose faith in banks. The stocks get hammered. Then when growth returns, investors realize those banks are actually profitable again, and they rush back in. Mining stocks don't work that way—they move with the commodity price, which had already been strong.
What about the geopolitical angle? Trump's return, the tensions—how much of the mining gain was just fear?
Some of it, sure. Gold especially becomes a safe haven when people are nervous. But it's not pure fear. Copper demand is real and structural—every electric vehicle, every solar panel, every data center needs it. That's not about politics; that's about the world actually changing.
And the 28% earnings growth across the board—is that sustainable?
That's the question everyone's asking. It's real growth, not accounting tricks. But whether it continues depends on whether Peru's economy keeps accelerating and whether metal prices stay elevated. Both are possible, but neither is guaranteed.