On a quiet Monday before Indian trading began, markets showed more hesitation than conviction, as oil eased and the Nifty hovered in a narrow band. Crude's slight retreat, despite fresh Houthi strikes across the Gulf, reveals how traders have grown accustomed to conflict, yet the prices of energy still weigh heavily on the economies that depend on them. Everyone is waiting for the next signal, particularly the Trump-Xi meeting on 24 September, which will decide whether the tensions that have shaped the year will ease or harden.
Brent Slips Toward USD 101 as Houthi Attacks Fail to Lift Oil; Indian Markets Eye a Flat Open
Oil kept falling even as the Houthis claimed strikes on Riyadh and Yanbu
Mark
Oil fell even though the Houthis said they hit targets in Riyadh and at Yanbu. Why does that matter?
Mimi
Because Yanbu is a key Red Sea export hub for Saudi oil. You'd expect a spike, and prices instead slipped, with Brent down about 0.8 per cent early Monday after a 0.9 per cent loss Friday.
Luke
Careful, though. Those are Houthi claims. The report doesn't confirm damage or say what was actually hit.
Mark
So the market may be discounting the claims?
Luke
Possibly, but the source doesn't say why oil fell. That's inference, not reporting.
Mimi
What it does say is that Brent remains above USD 100, so energy costs are still high even with the pullback.
Mark
And for India specifically?
Mimi
A flat open is expected. GIFT Nifty is near 23,347 against a Nifty close of 23,346. The index has been in a downtrend for six weeks, with support around 23,200 and resistance at 23,400.
Luke
Those levels are one analyst's technical view. And the prices shift through the piece, from 103 to 101.79, because they're taken at different times.
Mark
What's the next event to watch?
Mimi
The Trump-Xi meeting in Washington on 24 September, with the Busan truce expiring in November.
Luke
What happens there is unknown. The May talks produced nothing substantive.
Le Pouls
- Brent slipped toward USD 101 to 103 while Houthi missiles and drones targeted Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu, yet prices refused to spike.
- GIFT Nifty signalled a flat Indian open near 23,347 as traders braced for a market caught between war-driven energy costs and tariff worries.
- The Nifty 50 is fighting to climb past resistance at 23,400 after a six-week downtrend, with support near 23,200 holding the line for now.
- Analysts warn that any renewed escalation from Tehran could send volatility rippling through crude, currencies and global equities at once.
- All eyes turn to the Trump-Xi meeting on 24 September, where tariffs and the November expiry of the Busan truce could reshape the outlook.
On a quiet Monday before Indian trading began, markets showed more hesitation than conviction, as oil eased and the Nifty hovered in a narrow band. Crude's slight retreat, despite fresh Houthi strikes across the Gulf, reveals how traders have grown accustomed to conflict, yet the prices of energy still weigh heavily on the economies that depend on them. Everyone is waiting for the next signal, particularly the Trump-Xi meeting on 24 September, which will decide whether the tensions that have shaped the year will ease or harden.
Early Monday, before Indian trading opened, the screens showed a market with little appetite to move. GIFT Nifty hovered above 23,000, and analysts expected Indian equities to open flat. Oil was drifting lower, even as fresh attacks rippled across the Gulf region.
Brent crude fell about 0.8 per cent to roughly USD 103, extending Friday's losses, while US West Texas Intermediate slipped below USD 100. The decline came even as the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on sensitive sites in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu, a key Red Sea export hub. The claims remained unconfirmed, and the market did not panic.
Analysts saw the calm as fragile. Energy costs remain high with Brent still above USD 100, and Tehran has threatened painful retaliation if further military action follows. Technically, the Nifty 50 is trying to stabilise but still trades below its key moving averages. Traders are watching 23,400 as the immediate hurdle and 23,200 as the first support, with a break below 23,070 risking a revival of the six-week downtrend.
Attention now turns to the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington on 24 September, their second this year. Tariffs, critical minerals, AI and Taiwan are expected to dominate, and with the Busan truce expiring in November, both sides face pressure to extend the pause on tariff escalation and rare-earth export controls.
Early Monday, before Indian trading opened, the screens showed a market with little appetite to move. GIFT Nifty, the offshore indicator for the Nifty 50, was hovering above 23,000, and analysts quoted by ANI expected Indian equities to open flat. Oil was drifting lower, even with a fresh round of attacks in the Gulf region.
The numbers differ slightly across the report, because they were taken at different moments. Brent crude futures fell 81 cents, or 0.78 per cent, to USD 103.06 a barrel at 0031 GMT. That extended losses after Brent settled 0.91 per cent lower on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate fell 89 cents, or 0.89 per cent, to USD 99.41, following a 1.58 per cent drop in the previous session. By the time of reporting, Brent was trading near USD 101.79, and the other crude benchmark cited was near USD 98.11. GIFT Nifty stood around 23,347.50.
The decline came despite the Houthis claiming new attacks. The group said it targeted "sensitive" sites in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital, with missiles and drones on Saturday. It also said it hit an Aramco facility in Yanbu, a key oil export hub on the Red Sea. The report does not detail damage or confirm the claims, and the market did not react with a price spike.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said GIFT Nifty holding above 23,300, against the Nifty 50's previous close of 23,346, pointed to a largely unchanged start. He noted that crude had eased, but with Brent still above USD 100, energy costs remain elevated. He also pointed to Tehran, which has threatened painful retaliation against the US and its allies if there is further military action. In his words, any renewed escalation could quickly bring volatility to crude, currencies and global equities.
His technical read was cautious. The Nifty 50 is attempting to stabilise, but it trades below its key moving averages. The immediate hurdle is 23,400, and a sustained move above it would open the way to the 23,500 to 23,600 resistance zone. Only a decisive close above 23,600 would meaningfully improve the structure. On the downside, 23,200 is the first support, with a stronger cushion in the 23,100 to 23,070 band. A break below 23,070 would risk reviving a downtrend that has lasted six weeks. Momentum improved slightly after a three-session recovery, but no reversal has been confirmed.
Devarsh Vakil of HSL Prime Research expected a flat to mildly negative opening, citing concern over higher US tariffs and a worsening situation in the Russia-Ukraine war. He said the market will watch the meeting between Trump and Xi in Washington on 24 September. It is their second this year, after May talks in Beijing that produced no substantive agreements. Tariffs, critical minerals, AI and Taiwan are likely to dominate.
Vakil added that the 2025 Busan truce expires in November, so both sides face pressure to extend the pause on tariff escalation and rare-earth export controls. For now, traders have the Trump-Xi meeting and the 23,070 to 23,600 range on the Nifty as their markers.
Citations marquantes
Any renewed escalation could quickly trigger volatility across crude oil, currencies and global equities.— Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money
Both sides face pressure to extend the pause on tariff escalation and rare-earth export controls as the Busan truce expires in November.— Devarsh Vakil, HSL Prime Research (paraphrased)
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