On a Tuesday in early October, a narrow stretch of water that carries a large share of the world's oil found itself nearly emptied of tankers, as a string of attacks on ships and fresh American sanctions on Iranian cargoes pulled traffic to a two-month low. Brent crude held above one hundred dollars a barrel, a reminder that the price of energy is often decided less in boardrooms than on the open sea, where a few vessels turning back can ripple outward into every economy that depends on fuel. Diplomacy with Tehran was being spoken of in hopeful terms, yet the ships and the sanctions moved on t
Brent Holds Above $100 as Hormuz Tanker Traffic Falls to Two-Month Low Amid New Sanctions
Seven commodity carriers crossed Hormuz on Tuesday, the lowest since late July.
Mark
Traffic through Hormuz dropped to seven carriers on Tuesday. Why does that number carry so much weight?
Mimi
It's the lowest since late July, and it came right after trackers said flows had returned to pre-war levels. The recovery looked settled, and then it wasn't.
Mark
Kpler also said crude crossing fell 27% from a wartime high. What does that mean in barrels?
Mimi
At least 10.1 million barrels a day, down from the peak the week before.
Luke
Worth noting that's a floor, not a precise count. The wording is "at least," and the seven-carrier figure is one day, one firm's count.
Mark
And the attacks? Twelve between September 28 and October 2.
Mimi
That comes from a U.S. Navy-led maritime information center, covering crude, LPG and LNG tankers. Some were outside the strait, and Iran was reported to have hit one in the Gulf of Oman, where Saudi Arabia does its ship-to-ship transfers.
Luke
"Reported" matters there. The piece says Iran struck that tanker as news emerged, not as a confirmed finding.
Mark
Why didn't Trump's remarks about productive talks calm prices?
Mimi
Because sanctions kept coming. Seventeen more tankers carrying Iranian crude, fuels and petrochemicals were sanctioned this week.
Luke
And we only have the claim of talks via reports citing the president. No detail on what's being discussed or whether it changes anything on the water.
Mark
What's the less obvious effect?
Mimi
A tanker shortage. Record freight rates for Gulf routes and ship-to-ship transfers are pulling vessels away from other regions, which lifts physical delivery prices.
Der Puls
- Only seven commodity carriers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the thinnest day since late July, and the sudden drop caught markets off guard.
- At least twelve tankers carrying crude, LPG and LNG were attacked in five days, some as far away as the Gulf of Oman where ship-to-ship transfers take place.
- Crude flows through the strait fell 27 percent from their wartime peak in a single week, leaving Brent stubbornly above $100.
- Washington announced sanctions on seventeen more tankers even as officials described talks with Iran as productive, and traders remain unconvinced.
- Record freight rates for Gulf routes are squeezing the pool of available vessels, and prices may keep climbing unless attacks ease or talks produce results.
On a Tuesday in early October, a narrow stretch of water that carries a large share of the world's oil found itself nearly emptied of tankers, as a string of attacks on ships and fresh American sanctions on Iranian cargoes pulled traffic to a two-month low. Brent crude held above one hundred dollars a barrel, a reminder that the price of energy is often decided less in boardrooms than on the open sea, where a few vessels turning back can ripple outward into every economy that depends on fuel. Diplomacy with Tehran was being spoken of in hopeful terms, yet the ships and the sanctions moved on their own logic, and the outcome now rests on whether words can slow what the water itself is doing.
On Tuesday, Kpler counted just seven commodity carriers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the lowest daily figure since late July. Only days earlier, tanker trackers had reported that oil flows through the waterway were back to pre-war levels, so the sudden drop landed hard on a market that had begun to breathe easier.
The slowdown followed a run of attacks on vessels. A U.S. Navy-led joint information center recorded at least twelve tankers carrying crude, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas struck between September 28 and October 2. Not all of the incidents happened inside the strait. One tanker was reportedly hit in the Gulf of Oman, where Saudi Arabia carries out the ship-to-ship transfers that move its oil out of the Gulf.
The numbers told the story of a steep fall. Crude crossing the strait dropped 27 percent from a wartime high in just one week, to at least 10.1 million barrels a day. Brent traded near $102.83 and West Texas Intermediate near $90.33, still higher than where the week had begun, and oil was on course for a weekly gain. Reports that President Trump described productive talks with Iran did little to settle nerves.
Washington kept its pressure on Tehran regardless. Reuters reported that the newest sanctions targeted individuals, tankers and networks, with seventeen tankers carrying Iranian crude, fuels and petrochemicals added to the list.
Behind the headlines, shipping itself is tightening. Freight rates on Persian Gulf routes have reached record highs as the danger of attack keeps owners wary, and tankers are growing scarce. That shortage spills into other regions and pushes up the cost of physical oil.
The pressures now overlap: attacks at sea, sanctions on Iranian cargoes, and a shrinking fleet of available tankers. Whether talks with Iran can ease the first two, and whether record freight rates keep squeezing supply, will decide where oil heads next.
On Tuesday, Kpler counted just seven commodity carriers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It was the lowest daily figure since late July, and it came only days after tanker-tracking outlets had said oil flows out of the waterway were back to pre-war levels.
The drop followed a run of attacks on vessels. According to a U.S. Navy-led joint information center on maritime transport, at least 12 tankers carrying crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas were attacked between September 28 and October 2. Not all of the incidents were inside the strait. Iran was reported to have struck a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, the stretch of water where Saudi Arabia carries out its ship-to-ship transfers to get oil out of the Gulf.
Kpler's analysts put numbers on the slowdown. Crude crossing the strait fell 27% from a wartime high the week before, to at least 10.1 million barrels a day. That is a steep drop in a week for a passage that so much of the world's oil supply depends on.
Prices reflected it. Earlier today Brent was trading at $102.83 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $90.33. Both were slightly below their opening levels for the day, but higher than where they started the week, leaving oil on course for a weekly gain. Reports citing President Trump as saying productive talks were under way with Iran did not calm the market's concerns.
Washington, meanwhile, kept up its pressure on Tehran even as the talks were described in positive terms. Reuters reported today that the latest U.S. sanctions target individuals, tankers and networks. Seventeen tankers carrying Iranian crude, fuels and petrochemicals were newly sanctioned.
A separate squeeze is building on the shipping side. Freight rates for routes involving the Persian Gulf have hit record highs, reflecting the risk of attack, and tankers are growing scarce as a result. Ship-to-ship transfers have also tightened the supply of vessels available for other parts of the world. That pushes up the price of physical delivery oil still further.
So the pressures overlap: attacks on ships, sanctions on Iranian cargoes, and a shrinking pool of available tankers. What to watch next is whether the talks with Iran ease the attacks and the sanctions, and whether record Gulf freight rates keep tightening tanker supply.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Crude crossing the strait fell 27% from a wartime high the week before, to at least 10.1 million barrels a day.— Kpler analysts
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