Brazil's polarized election pits Lula against Bolsonaro's son amid corruption scandal

Brazil is voting on Sunday in a presidential election that has become a referendum on the country's recent turbulent past. The two candidates leading the race are Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva, the 80-year-old left-wing incumbent, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president now serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. Polls show both men hovering near 40 percent support, with nearly 160 million Brazilians eligible to vote and a runoff election likely if neither candidate reaches 50 percent on Sunday.

Jair Bolsonaro's absence from the ballot is perhaps the most defining feature of this race. Barred from running due to his conviction and serving his sentence under house arrest with restrictions on public statements and social media, the former army captain has nonetheless cast a long shadow over the campaign. At his son's official campaign launch, an AI-generated deepfake of Jair Bolsonaro appeared to endorse Flávio's candidacy. When pressed by Brazil's Supreme Court about the video, Jair Bolsonaro's lawyers denied he had authorized it, though few observers doubt the former president's backing of his son's bid for office.

Lula's political arc has been extraordinary and complicated. He served two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2010, during which he became widely celebrated for lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty through a cash-transfer program called Bolsa Família. He left office with approval ratings exceeding 80 percent. Yet his party later became engulfed in massive corruption scandals, and Lula himself spent more than 18 months in prison between 2018 and 2019 on corruption and money laundering charges, which he has consistently denied. Those convictions were annulled in 2021, clearing the way for his 2022 comeback victory over Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 percentage points. He pledged that third term would be his last, though his party endorsed him again this year despite his age.

As president, Lula has pursued a complicated environmental agenda that has drawn criticism from some quarters. While satellite data shows deforestation in the Amazon fell to its lowest level in a decade during the first half of 2026, Lula has also backed exploratory oil drilling in offshore waters near the Amazon's mouth. He argues that oil revenues are essential to financing Brazil's transition to clean energy and that he remains committed to eventually phasing out fossil fuels. His administration has also navigated rocky relations with Donald Trump, with Lula pointedly stating that "Brazil does not fit into anyone's backyard" in response to what Trump calls the "Donroe doctrine"—a national security strategy asserting US dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Flávio Bolsonaro is running for the right-wing Liberal Party and positioning himself as a continuation of his father's political project, though observers note he is less confrontational in style. As a senator since 2019 and a trained lawyer, he has championed tough-on-crime policies, advocating for longer prison sentences and looser gun regulations, arguing that law-abiding citizens need the ability to defend themselves. He successfully lobbied the US to designate two major Brazilian criminal organizations, Comando Vermelho and Primeiro Comando da Capital, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations—a move Lula opposed. Flávio has also courted evangelical voters and the agricultural sector, promising to cut what he calls unnecessary regulations and "get the state off farmers' backs." When asked in an August interview whether he still believed climate change did not exist, as he had stated in 2019, he acknowledged "extreme climate events" but insisted they were "cyclical." He has actively cultivated ties to the Trump administration, meeting with officials at the White House in May and pledging to join the US-led "Shield of the Americas" anti-crime alliance if elected.

In the final weeks before voting, a financial scandal has dominated the campaign and damaged both candidates. Daniel Vorcaro, a jailed banker accused of orchestrating one of Brazil's largest fraud cases, has connections to powerful figures across the political spectrum. Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged asking Vorcaro to finance a biopic about his father after voice recordings surfaced in which he requested 134 million reais—approximately $25.9 million. Police opened an investigation into Flávio for suspected corruption and money laundering related to the film's financing. But the scandal has also hurt Lula's campaign after alleged links emerged between Vorcaro and Alexandre de Moraes, a Supreme Court justice and Lula ally. Moraes presided over Jair Bolsonaro's trial and has made rulings about his detention conditions. A police report suggested Vorcaro made numerous calls and sent messages to a phone number linked to Moraes, with investigators saying Vorcaro sought help avoiding arrest. Moraes has denied wrongdoing, but the revelations shifted attention away from allegations against Flávio to those against the Supreme Court justice in the crucial final stretch. Lula attempted to distance himself by saying "no one is above the law," but Flávio seized the moment, telling supporters that "voting for Lula means voting for Moraes," weaponizing the right's deep antipathy toward the judge to consolidate his own support.

Crime and security dominated voter concerns until recently, but corruption has now risen to the top of the list. With nearly 160 million eligible voters and polls showing 9 percent still undecided or planning to spoil their ballots just days before Sunday, the final outcome remains uncertain despite the polling consensus. A runoff on October 25 appears highly likely, but the Vorcaro scandal and its implications for both campaigns suggest the race could still shift in unexpected ways.