Biden, Xi to Hold Talks as Pelosi Taiwan Visit Threatens US-China Relations

President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are scheduled to speak Thursday—their first conversation in four months—as Washington and Beijing spar over Taiwan and the possibility of a high-profile congressional visit to the self-ruled island. The call marks the fifth in a series of regular check-ins between the two leaders, talks that have been arranged for weeks. But the timing has grown fraught. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the second-ranking Democrat in the U.S. government, may be planning a trip to Taiwan, and China has made clear it will not tolerate such a move without consequence.

Beijing's message has been blunt. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that if the U.S. proceeds with a Pelosi visit, China will "take forceful measures to resolutely respond and counter it." The threat reflects how seriously Beijing views the prospect. Pelosi herself has not confirmed travel plans, citing security protocols around her movements, but she has said that showing support for Taiwan matters. She noted that Biden's military advisors had expressed concern—fear, in her words, that "our plane would get shot down, or something like that, by the Chinese." The Financial Times reported last week that Pelosi had planned to visit in August, a trip originally scheduled for April before she tested positive for COVID-19.

The stakes are real. If Pelosi were to go, she would become the highest-ranking U.S. elected official to visit Taiwan since Republican Newt Gingrich, who served as House speaker, made the journey in 1997. White House officials have privately urged Pelosi against the trip, warning that it could destabilize an already delicate arrangement. The U.S. maintains what is known as the "One China" policy—it recognizes Beijing as the government of China while maintaining informal relations and defense ties with Taipei. China views any high-level visit to Taiwan as a breach of that understanding, a signal that Washington is shifting its position.

The conversation between Biden and Xi will touch on multiple fronts. North Korea's nuclear program is expected to come up, as will the war in Ukraine and its implications for the region. The Biden administration is also working to revive the Iran nuclear deal and is completing a review of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods—duties that reached 25 percent on billions of dollars of products and were meant to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and pressure China to change its trade practices. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged Tuesday that "there are issues of tension in this relationship," but he also pointed to areas where cooperation is essential, particularly climate change.

Taiwan has become an urgent concern for both capitals in the shadow of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Biden has warned allies in the Indo-Pacific that Beijing is watching closely how democracies respond to aggression, as China weighs its own next moves on Taiwan. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has expressed worry that Beijing might draw "concerning" lessons from the five-month conflict in eastern Europe. But Sullivan also noted that Taiwan itself is learning. "They're learning lessons about citizen mobilization and territorial defense," he said at the Aspen Security Forum. "They're learning lessons about information warfare and how to prepare for a potential contingency involving China and they're working rapidly at that."

China has not been idle. Since Biden took office eighteen months ago, Chinese military aircraft have conducted hundreds of sorties into Taiwanese airspace. The U.S. is legally bound to ensure Taiwan can defend itself and treats threats to the island with grave concern. Taiwan was central to Biden and Xi's last call in March, roughly three weeks after Russia's invasion began. The Thursday conversation will likely circle back to the same ground, with the added pressure of Pelosi's possible visit hanging over the discussion.