British Columbians have handed the Conservatives a majority for the first time in nearly a century, a result that would have seemed improbable only weeks earlier. It is a story about a gamble gone wrong: David Eby, weary of a legislature split by a one-seat margin and a trade war he called an existential threat, chose to go to the polls two years early, and the voters answered by rewarding a party that had been torn apart by its own infighting. Behind the outcome lies a familiar political lesson about how quickly a divided field can knit itself back together when an opponent presents it with a
B.C. Conservatives Win Majority After Nearly a Century, as Eby's Snap-Election Gamble Backfires
A gamble on a fractured opposition ultimately cost him the government
Mark
Start with the basic irony. Why did Eby's early call backfire?
Mimi
He went in expecting a fractured opposition to hand him a win. But Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned two days before he called the election, and that pulled the centre-right's factions back together.
Mark
So the timing mattered.
Mimi
Enormously. Most of the defectors came back under Lorne Doerkson, who was a relative unknown and projected calm.
Luke
Careful, though. The reporting says her resignation galvanized the factions. It doesn't tell us how many voters moved or why they did.
Mark
Fair. What did Eby actually argue for going early?
Mimi
That a one-seat majority left the legislature stuck, and that the trade war with the U.S. demanded a strong mandate. He said the Conservatives voted 13 times to collapse the government.
Luke
That's his account on the campaign trail. It's a claim from one side, not an independent tally.
Mark
And the vote-splitting worry, did it play out?
Mimi
CentreBC drew many of the defectors, so the worry was real. But most came back to the Conservatives.
Luke
What we don't have here is the seat counts or vote shares from Saturday. We know it's a majority, not how big.
Mark
So what do we watch?
Mimi
Whether the right stays united in government, and how it handles the legislature and trade pressure.
The Pulse
- A one-seat majority left the NDP government gridlocked, with procedural fights and MLAs voting from hospital beds.
- Eby's snap election call, two years early, drew charges of opportunism even as he framed it as a shield against a trade war.
- The Conservative caucus shrank to 24 MLAs amid scandal, resignations and a new rival party, CentreBC, threatening to split the right's vote.
- Kerry-Lynne Findlay's resignation two days before the call pulled the warring factions back together under interim leader Lorne Doerkson.
- The Conservatives now hold a majority, and the open question is whether the newly unified right can govern without fracturing again.
British Columbians have handed the Conservatives a majority for the first time in nearly a century, a result that would have seemed improbable only weeks earlier. It is a story about a gamble gone wrong: David Eby, weary of a legislature split by a one-seat margin and a trade war he called an existential threat, chose to go to the polls two years early, and the voters answered by rewarding a party that had been torn apart by its own infighting. Behind the outcome lies a familiar political lesson about how quickly a divided field can knit itself back together when an opponent presents it with a common target.
British Columbia has given the Conservatives a majority government, the first in nearly a hundred years, and it is a hard defeat for David Eby. The NDP Leader called a snap election last month, two years ahead of schedule, certain that a divided opposition would hand him a comfortable win. Instead the gamble cost him the government.
Eby argued that the legislature 'wasn't working.' His one-seat majority had left the house tangled in procedural fights, and he said some of his MLAs had been forced to vote from hospital beds, one dying of cancer and another hours after giving birth. He also pointed to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war as a threat that demanded a stronger mandate. Critics saw something simpler: an opportunist moving while his rivals were in disarray.
Those rivals had been in deep trouble. Kerry-Lynne Findlay had narrowly won the Conservative leadership in May, and the party soon sank into scandal and bitter infighting. Thirteen MLAs quit or were removed, and at the worst point the caucus had only 24 members. Many defectors joined CentreBC, a new party that threatened to split the right's vote and boost the NDP.
Then the picture changed. Findlay resigned two days before Eby called the election, and her exit drew the warring factions back together. Most defectors returned under interim leader Lorne Doerkson, a little-known figure who kept a calm face through the campaign. At an Oct. 14 debate in Vancouver, he turned Eby's own move against him: 'He saw an opportunity for himself, and I see an opportunity for British Columbians.'
Now the Conservatives must govern, facing a legislature and a trade war of their own. The question is whether a party that only recently came apart can hold together in power.
British Columbia voted on Saturday to give the Conservatives a majority government, the first time in nearly a century the province has done so. The result is a striking turnaround for a party that went into the campaign after months of internal conflict and controversy that seemed to threaten its chances of ever reaching power.
It is also a verdict on David Eby. The NDP Leader called a surprise election last month, two years ahead of schedule, betting that a divided opposition would hand him a win. Instead, the gamble cost him the government.
Mr. Eby's case for going early rested on a legislature he said "wasn't working." His government held a one-seat majority, which left it tangled in procedural wrangling and, he said, forced some of his MLAs to vote from hospital beds while dying of cancer or hours after giving birth. He added that U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war posed an "existential threat" that made a strong mandate all the more necessary. On the campaign trail on Oct. 16, he said the government's focus had been on simply surviving, because the Conservatives voted 13 times to collapse it, including just three weeks after the last election. He also pointed to Conservative candidates and members who had been found to hold racist, homophobic and otherwise unacceptable views with alarming frequency.
The numbers going in tell part of the story. The 2024 election returned 47 New Democrats, 44 Conservatives and two Greens. By the time the legislature was dissolved last month, the Conservatives were officially down to 29 seats.
Critics saw the early call as opportunism, a move meant to exploit an opposition in disarray. Their reasoning was not hard to follow. Kerry-Lynne Findlay, a polarizing figure, had narrowly won the Conservative leadership in late May, and the party was soon plagued by scandal and bitter infighting. Thirteen MLAs either quit or were removed, all in clashes with Ms. Findlay. At the height of the conflict, the caucus was down to just 24 MLAs, 20 fewer than voters elected in 2024.
Many of those departures went to CentreBC, a new party that branded itself as a fiscally conservative, socially progressive alternative. That raised the prospect of the right splitting its vote, which would have improved the NDP's odds of re-election.
Then the dynamic shifted. Ms. Findlay resigned two days before Mr. Eby called the election, and her exit galvanized the warring factions of the centre-right. Most of the defectors returned to the party under interim leader Lorne Doerkson, a relative unknown who presented a calm face amid the chaos and led the Conservatives through the campaign.
Mr. Doerkson turned Mr. Eby's own framing against him at an Oct. 14 leaders' debate in Vancouver. "We're here because David Eby called a snap election," he said. "He saw an opportunity for himself, and I see an opportunity for British Columbians."
Next comes the work of governing. Watch how the new Conservative government handles the legislature and the pressures of the trade war, and whether a right that only recently fractured can hold together in power.
Notable Quotes
We're here because David Eby called a snap election. He saw an opportunity for himself, and I see an opportunity for British Columbians.— Lorne Doerkson, Oct. 14 leaders' debate in Vancouver
The Conservatives voted 13 times to collapse the government, including just three weeks after the election.— David Eby, campaign trail, Oct. 16
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