BBC pundits overwhelmingly back Arsenal to retain Premier League title in 2026-27

The new Premier League season is almost here, and the conversation among those who watch football for a living has settled into something close to consensus: Arsenal will win it again. When the BBC asked 26 of its television and radio pundits to predict the 2026-27 title race, 25 of them placed the Gunners in their top four. Twenty-five of 28. That's 89 percent backing a team to successfully defend a crown they claimed just last season, finishing seven points clear of Manchester City.

This is a remarkable shift from a year ago. Last August, only six of 35 BBC pundits thought Arsenal would be champions. The difference now is not hard to identify: they won. They have Mikel Arteta still in charge. They kept their best players. And they added Bruno Guimaraes to a midfield that already contained Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi. The continuity is almost boring in its completeness. Theo Walcott put it plainly—Arsenal have the biggest advantage of all, which is simply that everything stays the same while everyone else gets better. They don't need to rebuild. They just need to add.

The pundits speak of momentum and rhythm, of a group that knows exactly what the manager expects and is completely on board with it. There is no pre-season drilling required. There is no learning curve. There is just a team that won 85 points last year and has now been strengthened. Some worry about the burden of defending, about the difficulty of staying at the top when everyone is hunting you. Matt Upson noted that Arsenal looked tired at times last season, grinding out results. But even he cannot look past them. Troy Deeney said they will win by a comfortable margin. The only question in his mind is whether they can also win the Champions League.

Meanwhile, Manchester City faces something the club has rarely faced in the Pep Guardiola era: genuine doubt. Only three of 26 pundits think City will reclaim the title. Guardiola is gone. Rodri is gone. John Stones and Bernardo Silva are gone. The midfield that won so much has been dismantled. Enzo Maresca, the new manager, is tasked with rebuilding on the fly. Some pundits see potential—City still has Erling Haaland, still has Kevin de Bruyne, still has the infrastructure of a champion. But others are blunt. Troy Deeney called Maresca a "BTEC version of Pep Guardiola," suggesting he plays one way and has no flexibility when it doesn't work. The Community Shield showed defensive vulnerabilities that concern observers. City will likely finish in the top four. But the era of inevitability appears to have ended.

Liverpool and Chelsea occupy the next tier of possibility, though for different reasons. Liverpool hired Andoni Iraola, the Bournemouth manager, and the pundits are divided on whether he can make the step up to a club of that size. He is an exciting appointment, they say. His teams play with intensity and pressing. But they also need defensive reinforcements, and it is unclear whether the squad is deep enough to sustain his style over a full season. Chelsea, meanwhile, has become a dark horse. They finished tenth last season despite being in all 35 top-four predictions. This year, 21 of 28 pundits have them in the top four, with five backing them for second place. The reason is Xabi Alonso, the new manager, and a squad that suddenly looks balanced. Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers as twin number tens in attack. Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson in the dressing room to provide experience and leadership. No European football, which means more time on the training pitch. Sue Smith said they are potentially going to be unplayable.

Manchester United finished third last season despite zero pundits predicting it. This year, 14 of 28 have them in the top four, though only one thinks they will improve on third. The mood at the club feels different under Ruben Carrick, pundits say. But the squad still has age concerns, and the addition of Champions League football means more games, more fatigue, more risk of instability. Marcus Rashford's future remains uncertain. Youri Tielemans has arrived, but more signings are needed.

Beyond the traditional top four, a few pundits see surprises. Aston Villa under Unai Emery continues to overperform, though Champions League football may limit their domestic reach. Tottenham has made signings and has James Maddison back fit, but can you ever trust Spurs, as one pundit asked. Nottingham Forest, Leeds, and Sunderland earned mentions as potential surprises. But the consensus is clear: Arsenal's turn to defend has begun, and the rest are playing for second.