The spread between what it earns on loans and what it pays on deposits widened substantially.
No terceiro trimestre de 2022, o Banco do Brasil — instituição cujo destino está entrelaçado com o próprio tecido econômico do país — registrou lucro líquido ajustado de R$ 8,36 bilhões, superando em mais de um bilhão as expectativas do mercado. O resultado reflete a capacidade do banco de ampliar margens em um ambiente de juros elevados, ao mesmo tempo em que expande sua carteira de crédito em ritmo acelerado. É um momento de força institucional, mas também de atenção: por trás dos números expressivos, os primeiros sinais de tensão entre a expansão do crédito e a capacidade de pagamento dos tomadores começam a se desenhar no horizonte.
- O lucro de R$ 8,36 bilhões — um bilhão acima do consenso — surpreendeu até os analistas mais otimistas e reposicionou o banco como protagonista do ciclo de alta de juros no Brasil.
- A margem financeira bruta saltou 28,4% em doze meses, impulsionada por uma carteira de crédito que ultrapassou R$ 969 bilhões, com destaque para cartões de crédito (+31,5%) e agronegócio (+26,7%).
- A inadimplência acima de 90 dias subiu para 2,34%, ante 1,82% um ano antes, e as provisões para devedores duvidosos cresceram 15,1% — sinais de que o crédito farto começa a cobrar seu preço.
- O banco revisou para cima em 13% sua projeção de lucro anual, agora entre R$ 30,5 bilhões e R$ 32,5 bilhões, sinalizando confiança — mas a trajetória da inadimplência permanece como variável crítica para o fechamento do ano.
O Banco do Brasil encerrou o terceiro trimestre de 2022 com um resultado que surpreendeu o mercado: lucro líquido ajustado de R$ 8,36 bilhões, superando em mais de um bilhão reais a estimativa dos analistas. O principal motor foi a margem financeira líquida, que avançou 28,4% em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior, chegando a R$ 15,04 bilhões — reflexo direto do ambiente de juros elevados que marcou o ano.
A carteira de crédito do banco atingiu R$ 969,2 bilhões, crescimento de 19% em doze meses. A expansão foi ampla: crédito consignado e pessoal avançaram com solidez, cartões de crédito dispararam 31,5% no ano, o crédito empresarial cresceu 20,2% e o agronegócio — pilar histórico da instituição — expandiu 26,7%. A receita de serviços subiu 11% anualmente, enquanto as despesas administrativas cresceram apenas 1,2% no trimestre, demonstrando disciplina de custos em meio à expansão.
O cenário, porém, não é isento de tensões. A inadimplência acima de 90 dias subiu para 2,34%, ante 1,82% um ano antes, levando o banco a elevar suas provisões em 15,1%, para R$ 4,517 bilhões. O índice de cobertura recuou de 271% para 234,9% — ainda confortável, mas em trajetória de queda.
Diante do desempenho robusto, o banco revisou suas projeções para o ano: o lucro ajustado deve ficar entre R$ 30,5 bilhões e R$ 32,5 bilhões, alta de cerca de 13% em relação à guidance anterior. A carteira de crédito deve crescer entre 15% e 17%. O equilíbrio entre a força dos resultados e o avanço da inadimplência será o fio condutor que definirá não apenas o fechamento do ano do Banco do Brasil, mas também o que seus números revelam sobre a saúde do crédito brasileiro às vésperas de 2023.
Banco do Brasil delivered a third-quarter profit that caught even optimistic forecasters off guard. The state-owned bank reported adjusted net income of R$ 8.36 billion in the three months ending September, a figure that exceeded the consensus estimate by more than a billion reais. The market had been bracing for R$ 7.36 billion. It was the kind of result that prompts a bank to recalibrate its entire year.
The engine driving this outperformance was the bank's net financial margin—the spread between what it earns on loans and what it pays on deposits. That figure climbed to R$ 15.04 billion, up 28.4 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. In a year of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, Banco do Brasil had managed to widen its margins substantially. The bank's total credit portfolio, measured broadly across all customer segments, reached R$ 969.2 billion, representing growth of 19 percent annually and 5.4 percent from the previous quarter.
The credit expansion was broad-based. Consumer lending—the segment serving individuals—grew 2.7 percent in the quarter and 10.9 percent over twelve months, with particular strength in payroll-deducted loans, personal loans, and credit cards. That last category surged 31.5 percent year-over-year. The business lending portfolio expanded 5.3 percent quarterly and 20.2 percent annually. Agricultural credit, a cornerstone of the bank's identity, grew 9.1 percent in the quarter and 26.7 percent over the year. Service revenue climbed 11 percent annually to R$ 8.5 billion. Administrative expenses totaled R$ 8.4 billion, up just 1.2 percent from the prior quarter—a sign of cost discipline amid expansion.
But the results also revealed stress in the credit system. The bank's delinquency rate—loans overdue more than 90 days—rose to 2.34 percent by the end of September, up from 2 percent at the end of the second quarter and 1.82 percent a year earlier. The bank responded by increasing its loan loss provisions by 15.1 percent annually to R$ 4.517 billion. The coverage ratio, which measures how much the bank has set aside relative to troubled loans, declined to 234.9 percent from 271 percent in the prior quarter. The bank was still well-cushioned, but the trajectory was moving in the wrong direction.
These results prompted Banco do Brasil to substantially revise its outlook for the full year. The bank now expects adjusted net profit between R$ 30.5 billion and R$ 32.5 billion, up from its previous guidance of R$ 27 billion to R$ 30 billion—an upward revision of roughly 13 percent at the midpoint. The credit portfolio is now expected to grow 15 to 17 percent for the year, compared to the earlier forecast of 12 to 16 percent. Within that, the bank raised its business lending forecast to 15 to 17 percent growth, from 8 to 12 percent previously, while moderating its consumer lending outlook to 11 to 13 percent from 11 to 15 percent. Service revenue is now projected to grow 9 to 11 percent, up from 6 to 9 percent. The bank left unchanged its guidance for agribusiness credit growth, loan loss provisions, and administrative expenses.
The revisions tell a story of a bank that has benefited from Brazil's higher interest rate environment and stronger-than-expected credit demand, particularly from businesses. Yet the rising delinquency rates suggest that the economic pressures facing borrowers are mounting. How those two forces balance out in the final quarter will shape not just Banco do Brasil's year-end results, but also what the bank's performance signals about the health of Brazilian credit markets heading into 2023.
Notable Quotes
The bank now expects adjusted net profit between R$ 30.5 billion and R$ 32.5 billion for the full year, up from its previous guidance of R$ 27 billion to R$ 30 billion.— Banco do Brasil guidance revision
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
The profit beat consensus by a billion reais—that's substantial. What actually drove that outperformance?
The net financial margin expanded dramatically, up 28.4 percent year-over-year. When interest rates rise and a bank has the scale Banco do Brasil does, the spread between what you earn on loans and what you pay depositors widens. That's what happened here.
But credit is growing too—19 percent annually. Isn't that usually a sign of looser underwriting, more risk?
It can be. And the delinquency rate did rise, from 1.82 percent a year ago to 2.34 percent now. The bank is aware of it—they increased loan loss provisions by 15 percent. But the growth is real across all segments: consumers, businesses, agriculture. It's not one pocket of excess.
The bank raised its full-year profit guidance by 13 percent. That's a big move. What changed their mind?
Three months of results like this one. They saw stronger credit demand than they'd modeled, wider margins than they'd expected, and service revenue performing better. By mid-year they had enough data to say: we were too conservative.
But they lowered the consumer lending forecast while raising the business forecast. Why the divergence?
Consumer credit is still growing, but the delinquency rate is a warning signal. Businesses are borrowing more aggressively, and the bank is confident in that segment. It's a calibration based on what they're seeing in the data.
What does this mean for the rest of the year?
The bank is betting that higher rates and strong credit demand continue. But delinquencies are rising, and that's a lag indicator—it takes time for economic stress to show up in default rates. The final quarter will tell us whether this momentum holds or whether the credit cycle is starting to turn.