In the careful architecture of regional diplomacy, a single hypothetical can carry the weight of history. When a senior Australian defence figure named Indonesia as an imagined military adversary during public testimony on the Aukus submarine program, the remark — intended as strategic illustration — became something else entirely: a reminder that the language of security planning and the language of partnership do not always speak in the same register. The incident, unfolding in September 2026, asks a question that haunts every nation building power in a crowded neighbourhood — can a country
Australian official's Indonesia hypothetical sparks diplomatic friction in Aukus debate
Naming Indonesia as a hypothetical enemy risked undoing careful diplomatic work
Mark
Why would an Australian defence official use Indonesia specifically in a hypothetical war scenario? That seems like an odd choice if you're trying to build regional partnerships.
Mimi
It wasn't random—Indonesia is geographically central to Australia's strategic thinking about undersea dominance in the Indo-Pacific. But the problem is that naming any neighbour as a hypothetical enemy in public testimony, even as an illustration, reads as something different than a technical argument. It resurrects old suspicions.
Luke
Do we know if Pezzullo was explicitly trying to name Indonesia as a threat, or was he just picking a large regional power to make a point about submarine capability? The source doesn't clarify his intent.
Mimi
That's the thing—intent doesn't matter much here. The effect is what counts. Analysts called it clumsy diplomacy, which suggests the problem wasn't malice but carelessness about how the words would land.
Mark
What are the actual historical tensions between Indonesia and Australia that this revived?
Luke
The source doesn't detail those. It just says "old suspicions" and "historical tensions." We know they exist, but the article doesn't tell us what they are or how serious they were.
Mimi
Fair point. But the fact that analysts immediately flagged this as risky suggests the tensions are real enough that naming Indonesia as an adversary—even hypothetically—was seen as tone-deaf.
Mark
So what happens now? Does this damage the security cooperation they've been building?
Mimi
That's still unfolding. The article was published in mid-September, so we're in the immediate aftermath. The real test is whether Indonesia responds officially and how Australia manages the fallout.
Luke
And we don't have that yet. This is a snapshot of the moment the comments became public, not the resolution.
O Pulso
- A former senior Australian defence official named Indonesia as a hypothetical enemy in public Aukus testimony, igniting immediate diplomatic concern across the region.
- Analysts and observers swiftly labelled the framing 'clumsy diplomacy,' warning it could resurrect historical suspicions that Australia and Indonesia have spent years carefully burying.
- The remarks spread rapidly after republication by a prominent strategic affairs journal, amplifying their reach well beyond the original inquiry audience.
- The misstep lands at a particularly sensitive moment, as Australia is actively courting Southeast Asian partners to see it as a stabilising force rather than a destabilising one.
- No formal rupture has occurred, but the incident has introduced friction into a bilateral relationship that both nations have been working to strengthen, leaving diplomats to manage the fallout.
In the careful architecture of regional diplomacy, a single hypothetical can carry the weight of history. When a senior Australian defence figure named Indonesia as an imagined military adversary during public testimony on the Aukus submarine program, the remark — intended as strategic illustration — became something else entirely: a reminder that the language of security planning and the language of partnership do not always speak in the same register. The incident, unfolding in September 2026, asks a question that haunts every nation building power in a crowded neighbourhood — can a country arm itself without alarming those it hopes to befriend?
Michael Pezzullo, a former deputy secretary of strategy in Australia's defence department, appeared before the Aukus Public Inquiry on September 2 to make the case for nuclear-powered submarines. His argument centred on the submarines' ability to give Australia undersea dominance without immediate reliance on allied support. To illustrate the point, he conjured a hypothetical: a conflict with an "aggressive Indonesia," in which Australian forces would need to rapidly neutralise enemy fighting power.
The scenario was intended as a thought experiment, a technical device to demonstrate capability requirements. But Indonesia is not a neutral abstraction — it is Australia's largest neighbour, the region's most populous nation, and a country with which Canberra has been deliberately cultivating deeper security ties. When the remarks were published on September 5 and subsequently amplified by The Strategist, the journal of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, they drew the kind of attention Pezzullo likely did not intend.
Observers described the episode as "clumsy diplomacy" — not malicious, but careless in ways that carry real consequences. The bilateral relationship between Indonesia and Australia has historically been punctuated by suspicion, and both governments have invested effort in moving beyond that legacy. A public framing of Indonesia as a military adversary, even hypothetically, risks signalling something that contradicts the diplomatic work being done.
The deeper tension the incident exposes is structural. Australia is in the middle of a significant military build-up, justified in part by the need to reassure regional partners of stability. Yet the scenarios used internally to justify that build-up — when they surface publicly — can themselves become sources of unease. Pezzullo's testimony was meant to advance a strategic argument. Instead, it became a lesson in how quickly the grammar of military planning can unsettle the grammar of regional partnership.
Michael Pezzullo, who spent years in Australia's defence department as a deputy secretary of strategy, sat down in early September to testify before the Aukus Public Inquiry, an independent review of the trilateral defence pact binding Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The inquiry was crowdfunded and open to public scrutiny. In his testimony on September 2, Pezzullo made an argument for why Australia needed nuclear-powered submarines: they would give the country undersea military dominance without requiring immediate assistance from allied forces.
To illustrate this point, he reached for a hypothetical scenario. He imagined a conflict with an "aggressive Indonesia" and described how Australian forces would need to "rapidly destroy as much of the enemy's fighting power as possible" in such a confrontation. It was meant as a thought experiment, a way to show why the submarine capability mattered. But the choice of Indonesia as the illustrative adversary—a neighbour with whom Australia has been working to deepen security cooperation—landed differently than perhaps intended.
News24 published the remarks on September 5. Two days later, The Strategist, a journal run by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, republished them under the headline "Aukus has put Australia's submarine effort back on track." The comments began circulating more widely, and analysts who follow the region took notice. What they saw was not a neutral hypothetical but a diplomatic misstep.
The reaction was swift. Observers called the framing "clumsy diplomacy," a phrase that captured both the substance of the problem and its tone—not malicious, but careless in a way that mattered. Indonesia and Australia have been trying to build stronger security ties in recent years, working to move past historical tensions and suspicions that have periodically strained their relationship. Naming Indonesia as a hypothetical enemy in a public forum, even in the abstract context of military planning, risked undoing some of that careful work.
The timing added another layer of awkwardness. Australia is in the midst of a strategic recalibration in the Indo-Pacific, one that requires regional partners to see the country as a stabilizing force rather than a threat. Indonesia, as the region's largest economy and most populous nation, is a crucial player in that calculation. When an official with Pezzullo's background—someone who had shaped defence strategy at a senior level—casts the country as a potential enemy in a public setting, it sends a signal that can be read as contradicting the diplomatic message Australia is trying to send.
The incident highlights a tension that runs through Australia's current strategic moment. The country is investing heavily in military capabilities, including the Aukus submarines, framed as necessary for regional security and stability. Yet the way those capabilities are discussed, and the scenarios used to justify them, can themselves become sources of instability if they revive old fears or suggest that Australia views its neighbours as adversaries rather than partners. Pezzullo's testimony was meant to make a technical case about submarine capability. Instead, it became a reminder of how easily strategic planning can collide with diplomatic reality.
Citações Notáveis
Rapidly destroy as much of the enemy's fighting power as possible— Michael Pezzullo, describing hypothetical Australian military response in Aukus testimony
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War & Conflict