In Manila this week, Australia and the Philippines formalized their intent to deepen military ties, setting a 2026 deadline for a binding defence agreement that both nations frame as a measured answer to China's expanding reach across the South China Sea. The pact — built on joint exercises, shared infrastructure, and a growing web of allied relationships — reflects a broader truth about this era: that smaller powers, feeling the weight of a larger neighbour's ambitions, are finding strength in deliberate alignment. At stake is not only sovereignty over contested waters, but the rules by which
Australia, Philippines to seal defence pact amid South China Sea tensions
China's actions are a matter not only of concern but of condemnation
Mark
So Australia is essentially saying to the Philippines: we're in this together, militarily speaking. What does that actually mean on the water?
Mimi
It means more joint exercises, more coordinated patrols, more infrastructure so the Philippine military can operate more effectively. It's about building interoperability—so when they sail together, they can actually work as one force, not two separate ones.
Luke
But the agreement isn't signed until 2026. That's a year and a half away. What are they doing in the meantime?
Mimi
They're already doing it. ALON just wrapped—that's the 15-day exercise with Canada too. So the cooperation is happening now; the formal pact just locks it in.
Mark
Why does Canada matter here? I didn't expect to see them mentioned.
Mimi
Canada has interests in freedom of navigation too. They're signalling that this isn't just Australia and the Philippines pushing back—it's a broader coalition.
Luke
The source doesn't say what those five infrastructure projects are. That's a significant gap. We don't know if it's radar stations, ports, ammunition depots, or something else entirely.
Mimi
True. Marles didn't provide details, which suggests either they're still being negotiated or there's a reason to keep them quiet.
Mark
And China's response so far is silence?
Mimi
The embassy didn't reply to requests for comment. That could mean they're still formulating a response, or they're choosing not to escalate rhetorically.
Luke
The 2016 court ruling is important context—the Philippines won that case legally, but China rejected it anyway. So what makes anyone think a defence pact will change Beijing's behaviour?
Mimi
It probably won't change their behaviour directly. But it raises the cost of aggression. If the Philippines has Australian and Canadian backing, China has to calculate differently.
Il Polso
- China's surge of vessel activity around Second Thomas Shoal — arriving just days before Australia's defence minister landed in Manila — made the urgency of the meeting impossible to ignore.
- The Philippines and Australia are responding not with confrontation alone, but with architecture: a formal defence pact, joint drills, and infrastructure projects at five Philippine sites designed to make cooperation structural rather than episodic.
- The 15-day ALON exercise, running concurrently with the diplomatic visit and drawing in Canadian naval forces, sent a pointed signal — allied ships sailing together through the very waters China claims as its own.
- Philippine Defence Minister Teodoro moved beyond diplomatic caution, using the word 'condemnation' to describe China's conduct and framing the new pact explicitly as a deterrence-building exercise against unilateral moves Beijing refuses to negotiate.
- China's embassy offered only silence in response — a quiet that, against the backdrop of a rejected 2016 arbitration ruling Beijing still refuses to honour, speaks as clearly as any statement.
In Manila this week, Australia and the Philippines formalized their intent to deepen military ties, setting a 2026 deadline for a binding defence agreement that both nations frame as a measured answer to China's expanding reach across the South China Sea. The pact — built on joint exercises, shared infrastructure, and a growing web of allied relationships — reflects a broader truth about this era: that smaller powers, feeling the weight of a larger neighbour's ambitions, are finding strength in deliberate alignment. At stake is not only sovereignty over contested waters, but the rules by which a $4.7 trillion trade corridor is governed and who gets to write them.
Richard Marles arrived in Manila this week carrying a clear intention: to lock in a deeper military partnership between Australia and the Philippines. Meeting with Philippine Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro, the two charted the course for a formal defence agreement to be signed in 2026 — one both nations describe as a meaningful step up from their current cooperation.
The pact rests on practical commitments: more frequent joint military exercises aimed at sharpening interoperability, and Australian support for defence infrastructure development across five locations in the Philippines. Marles declined to specify the sites or the nature of the projects, but the scale of the commitment signals that both governments see their security futures as increasingly bound together.
The timing was shaped by events unfolding in real time. Days before Marles's arrival, the Philippine military reported a spike in Chinese vessel activity around Second Thomas Shoal — a disputed feature in the South China Sea that has become one of the region's most volatile flashpoints. Simultaneously, the ALON exercise brought together naval forces from the Philippines, Australia, and Canada for 15 days of coordinated operations in those same contested waters, including a joint sail through the South China Sea — a deliberate demonstration of allied presence.
The deeper friction is legal as much as military. China claims sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea, through which more than $4.7 trillion in annual trade flows. A 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejected that claim in favour of the Philippines — a verdict China has never accepted, and which has since underpinned years of naval standoffs, air incursions, and collisions.
Teodoro was direct at the joint press conference: China's conduct in the South China Sea, he said, warrants not just concern but condemnation, and has deepened what he called a trust deficit across the region. He acknowledged that the Philippines cannot stop China's unilateral moves — but argued that building deterrence through alliances is precisely the point of this new framework.
China's embassy in Manila did not respond to requests for comment. The silence, set against the backdrop of a rejected ruling and an advancing pact, carries its own meaning. Australia and the Philippines are moving forward — and the message to Beijing is deliberate: the region's smaller powers are no longer standing alone.
Richard Marles arrived in Manila this week with a straightforward message: Australia and the Philippines are locking in a deeper military partnership. The Australian Defence Minister met his Philippine counterpart, Gilberto Teodoro, to chart the course for a new defence agreement set to be signed in 2026—a formal commitment that both nations say will reshape how they operate together across the Indo-Pacific.
The pact itself is built on practical foundations. The two countries plan to conduct more frequent joint military exercises, designed to sharpen their ability to work in tandem and, as Teodoro put it, to strengthen what he called regional deterrence. Australia has also committed to supporting the development of defence infrastructure across the Philippines, with projects planned at five separate locations, though Marles declined to specify where or what those projects entail. The agreement represents a significant step up from their current level of cooperation—a signal that both nations see their security interests as increasingly intertwined.
The timing is not accidental. Just days before Marles's visit, the Philippine military reported a surge in Chinese vessel activity around Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed outcropping in the South China Sea that has become a flashpoint for regional tensions. This uptick in Chinese presence coincided with ALON, a 15-day joint exercise that began on August 15 and brought together naval forces from the Philippines, Australia, and Canada for coordinated operations in the same contested waters. The exercise included a joint sail through the South China Sea—a deliberate show of allied presence in waters where China claims near-total sovereignty.
That claim itself is the root of the friction. China asserts dominion over almost the entire South China Sea, a waterway through which more than $4.7 trillion in annual maritime commerce flows. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rejected China's legal basis for those claims, ruling in favour of the Philippines, which had brought the case. China has never accepted that verdict. Instead, the rejection has set the stage for years of confrontations—naval standoffs, air incursions, and collisions—between Chinese forces and those of the Philippines and its allies.
Teoboro did not mince words about what he sees happening. China's behaviour in the South China Sea, he said at a joint press conference with Marles on Friday, amounts to more than a concern—it is a matter of condemnation. He argued that these actions have eroded what he called China's trust deficit in the region. Yet he also acknowledged the limits of what the Philippines can do alone. The country cannot control China's unilateral moves, he said, but it can work to build deterrence—and that is precisely what this new defence pact is meant to accomplish.
The Chinese embassy in Manila did not respond to requests for comment on the announcement. The silence is itself telling. Australia and the Philippines are moving forward with a framework designed, in part, to constrain Chinese freedom of action in waters Beijing considers its own. Whether that framework will prove effective remains an open question, but the commitment is now formal, the timeline is set, and the message to Beijing is unmistakable: the region's smaller powers are not standing alone.
Citazioni salienti
China's actions in the South China Sea are a matter not only of concern but of condemnation, and have widened China's trust deficit in the region— Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro
The Philippines cannot control China's unilateral activities in the region, but there is a need to build deterrence— Teodoro
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Politics & Governance